Politics Politics Politics

DEC 12, 2025

Indiana Redistricting DEAD. Does the WH Press Corps Need to Change? (with Matt Laslo)

The Senate’s vote to extend enhanced ACA subsidies was the clearest sign yet that congressional Republicans are fracturing as they head toward the midterms. Four GOP senators — Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Dan Sullivan, and Josh Hawley — joined Democrats to back a three-year extension. The measure failed, but the defectors matter. Two are facing reelection in 2026. All four have been pressured by constituents facing premium spikes. And every one of them knows that allowing subsidies to expire is a political nightmare.The problem is that no Republican-sponsored alternatives have enough momentum to pass. Hardliners insist insurers are bluffing about catastrophic premium hikes and argue that federal subsidies can flow to abortion providers in violation of the Hyde Amendment. Leadership is frozen, moderates are restless, and none of the policy paths available appear functional. My read: the subsidies will expire. And the longer Republicans look divided on health care, the messier 2026 becomes.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Trump Loses Indiana — and a Bit of His Grip on the GOPTrump’s aggressive mid-cycle redistricting push hit a brick wall in Indiana, where 21 Republican state senators joined Democrats to defeat a map designed to produce two more GOP-friendly House seats. The vote wasn’t close. This wasn’t quiet dissent. It was a collective “no.” And the reason is obvious: Republican lawmakers are terrified of a “dummymander,” a map that overreaches and accidentally creates more vulnerable districts in a bad year. If 2026 is shaping up to be a Democratic wave — and every special election suggests it might be — legislators don’t want to be caught holding the bag.Trump’s allies threatened primaries. Outside groups ran ads. J.D. Vance weighed in personally. None of it mattered. If you want a temperature check on Trump’s leverage right now, this is it. He still commands loyalty, but not fear. And when Republicans stop fearing the leader of their own party, they start preparing for the next one. That’s how lame-duck dynamics begin — long before anyone says the words out loud.A Hard Pivot on VenezuelaThe administration also announced new sanctions on Nicolás Maduro’s inner circle, targeting his nephews, his wife, and a network of businessmen and shippers. This came just after the U.S. seized a tanker carrying Venezuelan crude. For now, this is a sanctions campaign — not military escalation — but it fits a familiar Trump-era pattern: push to the brink, stop just short, and ask adversaries whether they still want to keep playing.With Iran, the strategy eventually led to direct strikes. With Venezuela, nobody knows yet. But every foreign-policy story pulling headlines away from domestic issues is a political risk for Trump. His base doesn’t want global adventurism. They want America First, not America Everywhere.Chapters00:00 - Intro02:06 - Nuzzi/Lizza10:46 - Update11:01 - Obamacare12:14 - Indiana Redistricting15:53 - Venezuela Sanctions18:35 - Matt Laslo on the WH Press Corps54:10 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2">www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe</a>

57 MIN

DEC 9, 2025

Texas Shake-up: Crocket IN, Allred OUT! How Good Will 2026 Be For The Dems? (with Bill Scher)

<a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/JasmineForUS/status/1998155866038849634">Jasmine Crockett’s launch ad</a> did exactly what it was designed to do: dominate the conversation. It’s a sparse spot — just Donald Trump’s voice calling her “low IQ” while she slowly turns to camera and smiles—but the message is unmistakable. She’s positioning herself as the fighter, the foil to Trump, the progressive star ready-made for the national stage. Whether you think the ad is brilliant, asinine, or somewhere in between, the confidence behind it is unmistakable. This is a politician who believes the moment belongs to her.And the moment may actually be hers. Crockett’s entrance triggered the first major domino: Colin Allred is out. Allred saw exactly what was coming: a three-way field in which he was slowly slipping into fourth place, with poll numbers showing Crockett and state representative James Talarico dramatically outpacing him. In politics, you can bow out early or you can be forced out late. Allred chose the former and retreated to a reelection bid for his House seat. It was one of the rare cases of a politician reading a bad hand correctly before the stakes got worse.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.That leaves the primary as a one-on-one: Crockett versus Talarico. And Talarico’s opening move — a polite welcome video directed at Crockett — landed with a thud. If Crockett walks into a room like a lightning bolt, Talarico walked in like a guidance counselor. He cannot afford to make this a personality contest. Crockett thrives in personality contests. If he wants to win, he has to make this about message, not magnetism. The question haunting Texas Democrats for years — can a centrist survive a primary built to reward progressives? — will finally get an answer.Democrats dreaming of flipping Texas understand the trap. Yes, Crockett is electrifying. Yes, she’s a rising star. But statewide politics in Texas is still shaped by a conservative-leaning bloc of independents who view her as too far to the left. Early polling from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University shows both Crockett and Talarico losing to Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton, who was impeached by his own staff, dogged by scandal, and widely regarded as too extreme even by many Republicans. Yet he leads both Democrats by narrow margins.That tells you everything about the strategic stakes. If Democrats nominate a progressive firebrand, even a wounded Republican like Paxton becomes viable. And the fear for Democratic strategists is simple: the moment Crockett wins the nomination, a large number of center-right independents will default to whoever the GOP nominates. That’s the shadow hanging over her rise. Her path to the nomination is the clearest. Her path to victory in November may be the hardest.Republicans: A Primary That Shouldn’t Be Close, But IsOn the Republican side, the Senate primary is turning into its own demolition derby. For months, John Cornyn seemed secure: the senior statesman, the institutional favorite, the known quantity. But recent polling shows Cornyn clinging to a razor-thin lead over Paxton, with Representative Wesley Hunt sitting as a serious third-place contender. Hunt’s entry infuriated the Cornyn team, and with good reason — Hunt is young, popular, and ideologically aligned with the party’s post-Trump base in ways Cornyn simply isn’t.Paxton, meanwhile, remains the wildcard. He survived impeachment by leaning entirely on his loyalty to Trump, and the MAGA base has rewarded him for it. Trump is widely expected to endorse Paxton, and the only mystery is whether he gives Hunt a co-endorsement. Either way, Cornyn is not getting Trump’s blessing, and if you are a Texas Republican trying to win a statewide primary without Trump’s blessing in 2026, you are playing football with no helmet.As filing deadlines pass and the field locks in, Republicans now find themselves with the one candidate Democrats most want to face — and simultaneously the only candidate who might actually beat them.If both primaries break the right way, Texas could get the most entertaining political matchup in modern state history: Jasmine Crockett versus Wesley Hunt. Two young, charismatic Black lawmakers representing opposite poles of America’s political identity, both natural performers, both eager brawlers. They could fill AT&T Stadium for a debate. They might try. And I would pay to see it.But beneath the spectacle is the deeper truth: Texas politics is in flux. Both parties are being reshaped by their loudest wings. Both are terrified of nominating the wrong candidate. Both primaries could create general-election vulnerabilities neither side fully understands yet. We’re watching political identity evolve in real time.And for once, Texas isn’t just a red state or a blue target. It’s the center of the storm.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:19 - Texas Senate Races Heats Up00:17:29 - Update00:19:29 - Republican Healthcare Bill00:22:22 - Ghislaine Maxwell Record Release00:24:03 - Tariff Bailouts00:26:07 - Bill Scher on Dems’ 2026 Outlook and More00:58:23 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2">www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe</a>

63 MIN

DEC 5, 2025

January 6th Pipe Bomber Arrested? The Great 2026 Primary Draft (with Evan Scrimshaw)

I’ve long found the January 6 pipe bombs case particularly frustrating. Too serious to be forgotten, too mysterious to be ignored, we’ve had no answers for nearly five years. And now, at long last, we have an arrest.The alleged bomber, Brian Cole Jr., faces federal explosive-device charges that could carry up to 20 years apiece. Court documents describe receipts, phone pings, and cameras placing him near the RNC and DNC buildings on January 5, 2021. All the evidence cited appears to have been in federal hands for some time, which naturally raises the question: why now? The government says enhanced forensic review — not new intelligence — finally broke the case open. But the timing will fuel speculation until prosecutors offer more transparency.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.For me, this case matters not only because it’s finally moving forward but because it was always part of the emotional experience of January 6, even if the public didn’t talk about it. Lawmakers were moved and evacuated not just because of the riot at the Capitol, but because of the pipe bombs. It shaped decisions, reactions, and rhetoric that day. The mystery left a vacuum. We’re finally filling it.The week also brought new revelations about the Venezuelan drug-boat strike, which continues to create friction between congressional Republicans and the Trump administration. Admiral Frank Bradley told lawmakers he never received a “kill everybody” directive from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, directly contradicting a Washington Post story that ignited days of speculation. Bradley maintains he followed detailed written orders, not verbal instructions, and that subsequent strikes in similar encounters resulted in survivors being rescued, not targeted.Republican lawmakers — many of them veterans themselves — are increasingly frustrated by the administration’s lack of clarity. They want the full video, the exact legal guidance, and the chain of command spelled out plainly. Their frustration isn’t ideological. It’s procedural. Military rules of engagement matter because credibility matters. When the administration’s communication is muddled, confidence erodes. And with foreign policy front and center again — from Gaza to Ukraine to Venezuela — credibility is the one currency Washington can’t afford to spend recklessly.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:46 - Evan Scrimshaw on Recent News00:26:48 - Update00:27:20 - January 6th Pipe Bomb Arrest00:34:18 - Venezuelan Drug Boats00:37:15 - Gaza Peace Plan00:39:27 - 2026 Primary Draft01:31:20 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2">www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe</a>

97 MIN

DEC 3, 2025

Tennessee Special Election Explainer! Are House Members Facing Impending Dread? (with Andrew Heaton)

The Tennessee 7th District special election is no ordinary off-calendar contest. It is a rare moment when a deeply red seat, long considered immovable, has become a stress test for the political environment itself. Before the results are spun beyond recognition, here is how I see the race and why its outcome — whatever it is — matters far more than who wins.Tennessee’s 7th District is not supposed to be competitive. For years it has behaved like a Republican fortress: John McCain won it by 28 points, Mitt Romney by 24, and Donald Trump by anywhere from 21 to 34. Former Representative Mark Green consistently won with more than two-thirds of the vote. But those numbers mask reality. Trump has bled suburban support with each cycle, and while the district remains red, it has trended steadily closer to the center. That shift matters more in a special election, where turnout is low and national money is targeted at one race instead of dozens. In that kind of environment, even a heavily favored side can wobble.That brings us to the candidates. Republican Matt Van Epps is the type of standard-issue conservative you’d expect to see in a district like this: a veteran, a conventional platform, and a campaign that’s been competent but unremarkable. He has not run toward Trump the way many Republicans in similarly structured districts once would have, an omission that speaks volumes about the nervousness inside the party. Democrats, meanwhile, are running Aftyn Behn, whose message is strong — focused on affordability and frustration with tariffs — but whose opposition research file is… extensive. Past tweets cheering the destruction of a police station and musing about abolishing the Nashville Police Department have given Republicans plenty of material. Not exactly what you want in Tennessee.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.I keep coming back to the same three scenarios. The first is the earthquake: Aftyn Behn flips the seat. If that happens, the panic inside the Republican conference becomes immediate and existential. This majority is already strained by retirements, factional fights, and Trump’s declining approval ratings. Losing Tennessee 7 would signal that no district is safe, and it would meaningfully raise the odds that Republicans lose the House outright — potentially even before the midterms if more members resign.The second scenario is the reset: Matt Van Epps wins comfortably, by 10 to 15 points. Republicans would exhale. Leadership would declare this a reaffirmation that the party’s base remains intact. They would argue that a focused Democratic effort still couldn’t move the needle enough to threaten a core GOP district. It would be evidence that the sky is not falling — at least not everywhere, and not yet.The third scenario is the most interesting: a narrow Van Epps win. A single-digit margin would function as a Democratic moral victory and a Republican warning klaxon. It would confirm that the party’s suburban erosion is accelerating, that Trump’s drift downward is shifting the map, and that a generic Republican — even in Tennessee — is not insulated from national sentiment. A Politico report suggested the GOP conference would become “unhinged” if the race lands here. Having watched the last month of Republican caucus behavior, I’m not inclined to disagree.This isn’t just a regional contest. It’s a snapshot of a party that has been running on fumes — caught between a base powered by Trump and a national electorate increasingly uneasy about his second-term performance. It’s also a test for Democrats, who are experimenting with insurgent messaging in places they normally ignore. Aftyn Behn is trying to run as an outsider in a district where the outsider lane belongs to Republicans. Whether that gamble pays off will tell us something about how Democrats might approach similar red districts next year.No matter which path emerges, the Tennessee special election is less about two candidates and more about the political weather. And for the first time in a while, Republicans can’t be sure the forecast is on their side.Chapters00:00 - Intro03:11 - Tennessee Special Election Explainer18:54 - Update19:25 - Pete Hegseth22:16 - Travel Ban27:03 - Paul Finebaum30:17 - Andrew Heaton on Congressional Dread52:50 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2">www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe</a>

56 MIN

NOV 26, 2025

Marjorie Taylor Greene's Crazy Resignation! Picking Top 2028 Democratic Hopefuls (with Gloria Young)

There’s no two ways about it — Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation came as a shock. She’s leaving Congress at the start of the year, which means Republicans will immediately lose a vote they absolutely cannot spare. Governor Brian Kemp now has to call a special election, and even if he moves at the fastest pace legally possible, Georgia’s replacement likely won’t arrive until April or May. At that point we’re deep into a cycle where dozens of House Republicans are juggling competitive reelection campaigns, statewide ambitions or both. Losing a seat now isn’t a problem; losing a seat during the most politically fragile stretch of the year is a crisis.The fascinating part is how we got here. Greene was once one of Trump’s fiercest and most loyal defenders, a political brawler who generated attention, small-dollar fundraising and cable hits. Her real institutional power, however, came from her alliance with Kevin McCarthy. When McCarthy fell, Greene’s entire support structure collapsed with him. She wasn’t able to transfer that leverage to Speaker Mike Johnson. In fact, her attempt to oust Johnson failed so publicly that it effectively isolated her. Add to that the now-infamous Tony Fabrizio polling memo — sent from the inside of Trumpworld directly to Greene herself — telling her she couldn’t win statewide, and suddenly the relationship that once powered her rise curdled into animosity. Once Trump’s giving you mean nicknames on a Truth Social post, it’s pretty clear your days inside the tent are over.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.In the past few weeks, Greene has been everywhere—Real Time, The View, CNN—adopting a noticeably softer tone about political adversaries, including Nancy Pelosi. None of that happens by accident. And while no one close to her has confirmed anything, I can’t shake the sense that she’s plotting a pivot toward statewide office. The national rebrand won’t work; she’s too defined. But in a state like Georgia, where the Republican base still views her as a heroine and suburban women remain the barrier to statewide wins, maybe she sees a narrow path for a remade persona. Insiders I’ve spoken with don’t think it’s likely — but nobody dismisses it out of hand. After all, Georgia politics has delivered plenty of stranger twists than Marjorie Taylor Greene trying to run as a kinder, gentler insurgent.A Bad Week for DOJ: Sloppy Cases, Angry Allies and a Political CostWhile Greene was calculating her next chapter, the Trump administration’s Department of Justice was stumbling through one of its most humiliating stretches since the start of the second term. Two high-profile cases—one targeting James Comey and another targeting New York Attorney General Letitia James—fell apart in spectacular fashion. The Comey case wasn’t dismissed on a technicality; it was thrown out because the Department of Justice may not have even properly secured a grand jury indictment. Not good. And because of how the dismissal occurred, the case cannot be refiled. Comey is permanently in the clear. The Letitia James case was dismissed for different reasons, and that one can theoretically return — but in practice, it’s now damaged and politically radioactive.Look. These cases were clearly pushed at the direction of Donald Trump himself. He said the quiet part out loud on Truth Social, publicly urging prosecutions of Comey, James and Adam Schiff before deleting the message. Trump wanted consequences for people he sees as political enemies. But wanting something and executing it competently are two very different things. And what happened here wasn’t just sloppy — it undercut the credibility of his claim to be the only person who can “clean up the system.” If you’re promising a more efficient, more disciplined government, you cannot afford your Justice Department to mishandle prosecutions this badly.This is also where the political costs begin to show. Punchbowl reported this week that Greene’s resignation has other Republicans eyeing the exits. I’ve heard similar grumbling from people close to MAGA-aligned lawmakers: they feel neglected by the White House, shut out of decision-making, and deprived of the small wins that normally help hold a caucus together. On issues like Venezuela, they simply want explanations — and aren’t getting them. Add the DOJ fiasco on top, and you have a governing coalition that increasingly feels taken for granted. The math is brutal: Republicans are two retirements away from losing the House majority outright. No one thinks a mass exodus is imminent, but the fact that the scenario has become a topic of conversation tells you how fragile the coalition is.The bottom line: if the Trump administration wants to restore confidence — inside the party and beyond — it can’t afford more weeks like this. Competence matters. And right now, the DOJ is delivering the exact opposite.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:10 - Marjorie Taylor Greene00:11:02 - Rush Hour 4 (seriously)00:11:44 - DOJ’s Bad Day00:16:38 - Are the Republicans in Trouble?00:19:39 - 2028 Picks with Gloria Young01:03:30 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2">www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe</a>

66 MIN

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