<description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Tuesday 12th November 2024&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"&gt;NAB Markets Research Disclaimer&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"&gt;Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"&gt;NAB&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;p&gt;The US dollar continues to rise, mid-cap equities are doing well, Bitcoin is pushing higher, so are Tesla shares.&amp;nbsp;With little in the way of new data releases, and the US bond market closed for Veterans Day, most market moves relate to expectations on what Trump might do in&amp;nbsp;his second Presidency.&amp;nbsp;Phil asks if the moves are rational. It’s too early to be rational, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, but NAB has issued new FX forecasts based on the assumption that the new administration will quickly push ahead with its tariff promises. That means the Aussie dollar won’t reach 70 us cents next year, not helped by the deepening weakness in the Chinese economy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;hr&gt;&lt;p style='color:grey; font-size:0.75em;'&gt; Hosted on Acast. See &lt;a style='color:grey;' target='_blank' rel='noopener noreferrer' href='https://acast.com/privacy'&gt;acast.com/privacy&lt;/a&gt; for more information.&lt;/p&gt;</description>

Markets can be irrational for a long period of time, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril. So Trump moves can continue, with risk assets pushing higher.

Tuesday 12th November 2024 <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">NAB</a> The US dollar continues to rise, mid-cap equities are doing well, Bitcoin is pushing higher, so are Tesla shares.&nbsp;With little in the way of new data releases, and the US bond market closed for Veterans Day, most market moves relate to expectations on what Trump might do in&nbsp;his second Presidency.&nbsp;Phil asks if the moves are rational. It’s too early to be rational, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, but NAB has issued new FX forecasts based on the assumption that the new administration will quickly push ahead with its tariff promises. That means the Aussie dollar won’t reach 70 us cents next year, not helped by the deepening weakness in the Chinese economy. <hr> Hosted on Acast. See <a style='color:grey;' target='_blank' rel='noopener noreferrer' href='https://acast.com/privacy'>acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Pricing for Trump.  But is it rational?

<description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Monday11th November 2024&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"&gt;NAB Markets Research Disclaimer&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"&gt;Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"&gt;NAB&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;p&gt;Markets might be waiting for signs of the speed and magnitude of Trump’s expected import tariffs, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says businesses are already indicating their response - building up inventories in the US whilst they determine as they consider whether to move more production to the US. China’s stimulus underwhelmed on Friday, focusing on reducing local government debt rather than provided direct stimulus to businesses and consumers. It’s a busy week for Australian data, with labour market numbers out on Thursday and the wage price index for Q3 on Wednesday, plus the NAB Business Survey tomorrow.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;hr&gt;&lt;p style='color:grey; font-size:0.75em;'&gt; Hosted on Acast. See &lt;a style='color:grey;' target='_blank' rel='noopener noreferrer' href='https://acast.com/privacy'&gt;acast.com/privacy&lt;/a&gt; for more information.&lt;/p&gt;</description>

What will Trump do first? NAB’s Tapas Strickland says some firms are already moving ahead of the potential tariff war.

Monday11th November 2024 <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">NAB</a> Markets might be waiting for signs of the speed and magnitude of Trump’s expected import tariffs, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says businesses are already indicating their response - building up inventories in the US whilst they determine as they consider whether to move more production to the US. China’s stimulus underwhelmed on Friday, focusing on reducing local government debt rather than provided direct stimulus to businesses and consumers. It’s a busy week for Australian data, with labour market numbers out on Thursday and the wage price index for Q3 on Wednesday, plus the NAB Business Survey tomorrow. <hr> Hosted on Acast. See <a style='color:grey;' target='_blank' rel='noopener noreferrer' href='https://acast.com/privacy'>acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

The Morning After the Week Before

<description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Friday 8th November 2024&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;p&gt;Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer &lt;a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/CIB-podcast-disclaimer-aug-2023.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;p&gt;Australia faces a rising tide of homelessness as rents push higher, out of the reach of many lower income earners.&amp;nbsp;According to Rebecca Pinkstone, chief executive of&amp;nbsp;Homes&amp;nbsp;NSW, in her state alone there are 57,000 people on the register, looking for a home. Rents in Sydney and surrounds are often considerably more than a state pension.&amp;nbsp;Supply is a big part of the problem, with developers reluctant to commit to the growth required because they face rising material costs and skills shortages. Subsidising existing rental simply maintains the elevated prices for properties. And, as Phil points out, it’s not just low income earners hit by the housing crisis. Household sizes in Australia are well above those of comparable economies, as children wait longer to move out.&amp;nbsp;Phil asks, is it just about supply? Or is it time to address the government policies that have elevated prices for decades?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;hr&gt;&lt;p style='color:grey; font-size:0.75em;'&gt; Hosted on Acast. See &lt;a style='color:grey;' target='_blank' rel='noopener noreferrer' href='https://acast.com/privacy'&gt;acast.com/privacy&lt;/a&gt; for more information.&lt;/p&gt;</description>

Phil asks Homes NSW chief executive Rebecca Pinkstone,  whether the housing crisis is just driven by  supply issues?

Friday 8th November 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/CIB-podcast-disclaimer-aug-2023.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">here</a>. Australia faces a rising tide of homelessness as rents push higher, out of the reach of many lower income earners.&nbsp;According to Rebecca Pinkstone, chief executive of&nbsp;Homes&nbsp;NSW, in her state alone there are 57,000 people on the register, looking for a home. Rents in Sydney and surrounds are often considerably more than a state pension.&nbsp;Supply is a big part of the problem, with developers reluctant to commit to the growth required because they face rising material costs and skills shortages. Subsidising existing rental simply maintains the elevated prices for properties. And, as Phil points out, it’s not just low income earners hit by the housing crisis. Household sizes in Australia are well above those of comparable economies, as children wait longer to move out.&nbsp;Phil asks, is it just about supply? Or is it time to address the government policies that have elevated prices for decades? <hr> Hosted on Acast. See <a style='color:grey;' target='_blank' rel='noopener noreferrer' href='https://acast.com/privacy'>acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Weekend Edition: Are we moving fast enough to tackle Australia’s housing crisis?

<description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Friday 8th November 2024&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"&gt;NAB Markets Research Disclaimer&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"&gt;Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"&gt;NAB&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;p&gt;The Fed cut rates as expected today by 25bp, after the big 50bp cut last time. But there’s one more meeting scheduled before Christmas and JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are evenly split as to whether that’ll mean another cut this year.&amp;nbsp;The message from the Fed today was that the risks are balanced when it comes to achieving their employment and inflation goals, but what about the elephant in the room? Will Trump’s agenda drive inflation higher and delay the speed of cuts. That seems to be happening in the UK, where the Bank of England cut rates as expected, but the impact of the budget could delay further cuts. One more this year seems unlikely.&amp;nbsp;Today’s big news is likely to be the announcement on fiscal stimulus from China’s National People‘s Congress,&amp;nbsp;most likely before the Sydney&amp;nbsp;close says Sally.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;hr&gt;&lt;p style='color:grey; font-size:0.75em;'&gt; Hosted on Acast. See &lt;a style='color:grey;' target='_blank' rel='noopener noreferrer' href='https://acast.com/privacy'&gt;acast.com/privacy&lt;/a&gt; for more information.&lt;/p&gt;</description>

Will the Fed have to delay rate cuts if Trump's policy is inflationary? Phil talks to JBWere's Sally Auld.

Friday 8th November 2024 <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">NAB</a> The Fed cut rates as expected today by 25bp, after the big 50bp cut last time. But there’s one more meeting scheduled before Christmas and JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are evenly split as to whether that’ll mean another cut this year.&nbsp;The message from the Fed today was that the risks are balanced when it comes to achieving their employment and inflation goals, but what about the elephant in the room? Will Trump’s agenda drive inflation higher and delay the speed of cuts. That seems to be happening in the UK, where the Bank of England cut rates as expected, but the impact of the budget could delay further cuts. One more this year seems unlikely.&nbsp;Today’s big news is likely to be the announcement on fiscal stimulus from China’s National People‘s Congress,&nbsp;most likely before the Sydney&nbsp;close says Sally. <hr> Hosted on Acast. See <a style='color:grey;' target='_blank' rel='noopener noreferrer' href='https://acast.com/privacy'>acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Too slow for Trump?

<description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Thursday 7th November 2024&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"&gt;NAB Markets Research Disclaimer&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"&gt;Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"&gt;NAB&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;p&gt;There is a Trump trade after all, and we just saw it. The US dollar rising, bond yields in the US pushing higher, US equities higher at the expense of equity markets elsewhere. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the market response to the US Presidential election news. They discuss how it’s hit Europe and how it could prompt a domestic focus on China’s stimulus, which is expected to be announced on Friday. Meanwhile, will the news have any impact on the Fed and Bank of England, both meeting in the next 24 hours. Not this time round says Gavin,&amp;nbsp;but there’s no doubt Trump’s&amp;nbsp;promise of further tax cuts could have an impact on&amp;nbsp;the terminal rate in the US. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;hr&gt;&lt;p style='color:grey; font-size:0.75em;'&gt; Hosted on Acast. See &lt;a style='color:grey;' target='_blank' rel='noopener noreferrer' href='https://acast.com/privacy'&gt;acast.com/privacy&lt;/a&gt; for more information.&lt;/p&gt;</description>

NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the market response to the US Presidential election news. 

Thursday 7th November 2024 <a href="https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">NAB Markets Research Disclaimer</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">NAB</a> There is a Trump trade after all, and we just saw it. The US dollar rising, bond yields in the US pushing higher, US equities higher at the expense of equity markets elsewhere. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the market response to the US Presidential election news. They discuss how it’s hit Europe and how it could prompt a domestic focus on China’s stimulus, which is expected to be announced on Friday. Meanwhile, will the news have any impact on the Fed and Bank of England, both meeting in the next 24 hours. Not this time round says Gavin,&nbsp;but there’s no doubt Trump’s&nbsp;promise of further tax cuts could have an impact on&nbsp;the terminal rate in the US. &nbsp; <hr> Hosted on Acast. See <a style='color:grey;' target='_blank' rel='noopener noreferrer' href='https://acast.com/privacy'>acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Them and the rest of us

Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. <hr> Hosted on Acast. See <a style='color:grey;' target='_blank' rel='noopener noreferrer' href='https://acast.com/privacy'>acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

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