The Chuck ToddCast
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Recent Episodes
On today’s ToddCast, Chuck Todd breaks down Donald Trump’s sudden decision to fully engage on the economy—and why his proposals reveal both political vulnerability and economic incoherence. From promising $2.6 trillion in tariff revenue when only a fraction has ever been collected, to floating the idea of replacing income taxes with wildly regressive consumption taxes that would spike prices severalfold, Trump appears more focused on short-term optics than long-term consequences. Chuck also digs into Congress’ scramble to extend ACA subsidies—an issue so politically toxic for Republicans that even Trump may be forced to back the plan—and how the 2026 economic mood will shape the midterms. Plus, he examines the rise of Democratic “fighters” like Jasmine Crockett, the visibility boost for Gavin Newsom and Mark Kelly after their clashes with Trump, and why a politics obsessed with combat over substance leaves both parties drifting away from meaningful policy debates.
Then, Chuck sits down with Reese Gorman and Kate Nocera of NOTUS for a deep dive into what it means to build a truly nonpartisan newsroom in today’s hyperpolarized media landscape. Reese and Kate explain how NOTUS approaches journalism without playing to partisan expectations—or to social media algorithms—and why being outside the legacy-media universe gives their reporters a unique advantage. They discuss Washington’s shifting culture, from the decline in local DC reporting to the increasingly strained relationship between the press and Congress, where competition for scoops is fierce, norms have evaporated in Trump’s second term, and newer members often lack any memory of a functional legislature.
The conversation then turns to the political tensions shaping Capitol Hill, including Steve Scalise’s quiet maneuvering for the speakership, Trump’s latest approval dip, and the surprising lack of Trump fatigue among GOP lawmakers. Reese and Kate also outline the Democratic Party’s mix of opportunity and dysfunction heading into the midterms: strong messaging on affordability and bullish vibes contrasted with an inability to clear primary fields and a continued failure to operate as a true national party. From the dire mood on the Hill to which unknown members could soon be household names, this episode offers a sharp, insider look at journalism, politics, and power in Washington today.
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and give his ToddCast Top 5 non-playoff college bowl games that should be played NEXT season.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Got injured in an accident? You could be one click away from a claim worth millions. Just visit https://www.forthepeople.com/TODDCAST to start your claim now with Morgan & Morgan without leaving your couch. Remember, it's free unless you win!
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:00 NOTUS has filled a gap left by the Washington Post
03:00 The Washington Post has given up covering DC locally
06:00 Donald Trump finally engaging on the economy
06:30 Trump doesn’t accept the premise that the economy isn’t great
07:30 Trump blames Biden for all negative economic news
08:15 Majority of voters blame Trump for the bad economy
09:30 Trump proposes spending $2.6T in tariff revenue, only collected $250B
10:00 If Trump replaces income tax with tariffs, prices will go up 2-5x
10:45 Replacing income tax with consumption tax is incredibly regressive
12:00 Trump proposes farm bailout and cutting checks to taxpayers
13:00 Trump knows the economy is bad and wants to throw money at problem
13:45 The perception of economy in summer ‘26 will be perception for midterms
15:45 Trump worries short term, willing to push all problems off to his successor
16:30 Congress looking to extend ACA subsidies for ACA by two years
17:15 Healthcare is such a bad issue for GOP they are looking for off-ramp
18:30 Trump will have to endorse ACA subsidy extension for it to pass
19:30 Bill will likely have to pass the senate before the house
20:30 Gavin Newsom & Mark Kelly’s fight with Trump boosted their visibility
23:30 Mark Kelly’s bio has more charisma than he does
26:00 Hegseth threatening Kelly gave Kelly some juice
26:30 Jasmine Crockett announces run for senate, is very savvy candidate
27:15 Crockett’s announcement video is grounded in fight with Trump
28:00 The fastest way to get traction is Democratic politics is to be a fighter
29:00 Being a fighter helps centrists avoid the progressive litmus test*
30:15 Republicans don’t run on policy ideas, they run on “owning the libs”
31:15 If you only run on fighting, you don’t stand for anything
32:30 Major policy debates become more about the fight and lose substance
34:15 There will be “issue” candidates for Democrats, but they likely won’t do well
34:45 Crockett vs Talarico will be “fight vs unite”
35:45 Nancy Mace writes op-ed saying Dems ram through their agenda
36:30 Dems also think Republicans ram through their agenda
37:30 GOP willing to take hard votes to fulfill promises, Dems less so
43:45 Reese Gorman & Kate Nocera of NOTUS join the Chuck ToddCast
45:15 What is NOTUS & how did you end up working there?
47:45 How do you execute being a truly nonpartisan newsroom?
49:15 You can’t balance the truth based on partisan affiliation
52:15 Is NOTUS the only incubator for young journalists in DC?
54:30 How Reese ended up at NOTUS?
57:45 Do you have to play to the algorithms when posting stories?
1:00:15 Being part of the non-legacy media is an advantage
1:02:45 The Washington Post has stopped covering local DC politics
1:04:45 Changes at the Kennedy Center aren’t being covered
1:07:15 Has Trump changed the culture of DC in his second term?
1:09:00 The relationship between the press and congress is more strained
1:11:00 The culture on the hill is very “cliquey”
1:12:00 There’s a lot more competition for scoops on the hill
1:13:00 What’s the mission of your podcast?
1:15:00 How does Steve Scalise continue to maneuver in the Republican party?
1:16:15 Scalise wants the speaker role currently held by Mike Johnson
1:18:00 Trump’s recent approval dip seems different than prior ones
1:19:00 There were still norms in Trump’s first term, there aren’t in 2.0
1:20:30 No sense of Trump fatigue from Republican members of congress
1:21:30 Can you tell which members are too trapped in an information bubble?
1:22:00 Pre-Trump members have a better sense of reality
1:23:45 New members don’t remember a time when congress was functional
1:25:45 How much of a problem could congressional leadership be for Dems?
1:28:15 Democrats could perform well running on affordability message
1:28:45 Democrats feel bullish headed into the midterms
1:30:00 The Dem establishment hasn’t been able to clear primary fields
1:31:45 Democrats aren’t a national party, can’t compete in 1/3rd of the country
1:33:45 The vibes and mood on the hill are terrible right now
1:34:15 If Dems win the TN-07 special, you could see wave of retirements
1:36:45 If you have DSCC questions, do you go to Schumer or Gillibrand?
1:39:00 A joint fundraising committee for Graham Platner is unlikely
1:40:00 Haley Stevens seems like a nervous candidate
1:40:30 Which unknown members could be household names in a year?
1:45:45 Where you can find Reese and Kate’s work
1:49:30 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with NOTUS
1:50:15 Ask Chuck
1:50:30 Will Trump’s policy tank support with latinos & put FL & TX in play?
1:56:00 Will you and Cillizza have a bet on the A&M vs Miami game?
1:58:00 Thoughts on electing the Attorney General independently?
2:04:45 Does Bernie Moreno’s bill ending dual citizenship pass legal muster?
2:07:30 ToddCast Top 5 bowl games that would be better played next season
2:08:30 Multiple schools have bowed out of playing non playoff bowl games
2:13:15 #1 Citrus Bowl - Texas vs. Michigan
2:14:00 #2 Pop Tarts Bowl - BYU vs. Notre Dame
2:14:45 #3 Pinstripe Bowl - Penn State vs. Clemson
2:15:30 #4 Sun Bowl - Arizona vs. Duke
2:16:00 #5 Hawaii Bowl - Cal vs. Hawaii
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On today’s ToddCast, Chuck Todd breaks down Donald Trump’s sudden decision to fully engage on the economy—and why his proposals reveal both political vulnerability and economic incoherence. From promising $2.6 trillion in tariff revenue when only a fraction has ever been collected, to floating the idea of replacing income taxes with wildly regressive consumption taxes that would spike prices severalfold, Trump appears more focused on short-term optics than long-term consequences. Chuck also digs into Congress’ scramble to extend ACA subsidies—an issue so politically toxic for Republicans that even Trump may be forced to back the plan—and how the 2026 economic mood will shape the midterms. Plus, he examines the rise of Democratic “fighters” like Jasmine Crockett, the visibility boost for Gavin Newsom and Mark Kelly after their clashes with Trump, and why a politics obsessed with combat over substance leaves both parties drifting away from meaningful policy debates.
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and give his ToddCast Top 5 non-playoff college bowl games that should be played NEXT season.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Got injured in an accident? You could be one click away from a claim worth millions. Just visit https://www.forthepeople.com/TODDCAST to start your claim now with Morgan & Morgan without leaving your couch. Remember, it's free unless you win!
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:00 Donald Trump finally engaging on the economy
01:30 Trump doesn’t accept the premise that the economy isn’t great
02:30 Trump blames Biden for all negative economic news
03:15 Majority of voters blame Trump for the bad economy
04:30 Trump proposes spending $2.6T in tariff revenue, only collected $250B
05:00 If Trump replaces income tax with tariffs, prices will go up 2–5x
05:45 Replacing income tax with consumption tax is incredibly regressive
07:00 Trump proposes farm bailout and cutting checks to taxpayers
08:00 Trump knows the economy is bad and wants to throw money at problem
08:45 The perception of economy in summer ‘26 will be perception for midterms
10:45 Trump worries short term, willing to push all problems off to his successor
11:30 Congress looking to extend ACA subsidies for ACA by two years
12:15 Healthcare is such a bad issue for GOP they are looking for off-ramp
13:30 Trump will have to endorse ACA subsidy extension for it to pass
14:30 Bill will likely have to pass the senate before the house
15:30 Gavin Newsom & Mark Kelly’s fight with Trump boosted their visibility
18:30 Mark Kelly’s bio has more charisma than he does
21:00 Hegseth threatening Kelly gave Kelly some juice
21:30 Jasmine Crockett announces run for senate, is very savvy candidate
22:15 Crockett’s announcement video is grounded in fight with Trump
23:00 The fastest way to get traction is Democratic politics is to be a fighter
24:00 Being a fighter helps centrists avoid the progressive litmus test*
25:15 Republicans don’t run on policy ideas, they run on “owning the libs”
26:15 If you only run on fighting, you don’t stand for anything
27:30 Major policy debates become more about the fight and lose substance
29:15 There will be “issue” candidates for Democrats, but they likely won’t do well
29:45 Crockett vs Talarico will be “fight vs unite”
30:45 Nancy Mace writes op-ed saying Dems ram through their agenda
31:30 Dems also think Republicans ram through their agenda
32:30 GOP willing to take hard votes to fulfill promises, Dems less so
38:15 Ask Chuck
38:30 Will Trump’s policy tank support with latinos & put FL & TX in play?
44:00 Will you and Cillizza have a bet on the A&M vs Miami game?
46:00 Thoughts on electing the Attorney General independently?
52:45 Does Bernie Moreno’s bill ending dual citizenship pass legal muster?
55:30 ToddCast Top 5 bowl games that would be better played next season
56:30 Multiple schools have bowed out of playing non playoff bowl games
1:01:15 #1 Citrus Bowl - Texas vs. Michigan
1:02:00 #2 Pop Tarts Bowl - BYU vs. Notre Dame
1:02:45 #3 Pinstripe Bowl - Penn State vs. Clemson
1:03:30 #4 Sun Bowl - Arizona vs. Duke
1:04:00 #5 Hawaii Bowl - Cal vs. Hawaii
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck sits down with Reese Gorman and Kate Nocera of NOTUS for a deep dive into what it means to build a truly nonpartisan newsroom in today’s hyperpolarized media landscape. Reese and Kate explain how NOTUS approaches journalism without playing to partisan expectations—or to social media algorithms—and why being outside the legacy-media universe gives their reporters a unique advantage. They discuss Washington’s shifting culture, from the decline in local DC reporting to the increasingly strained relationship between the press and Congress, where competition for scoops is fierce, norms have evaporated in Trump’s second term, and newer members often lack any memory of a functional legislature.
The conversation then turns to the political tensions shaping Capitol Hill, including Steve Scalise’s quiet maneuvering for the speakership, Trump’s latest approval dip, and the surprising lack of Trump fatigue among GOP lawmakers. Reese and Kate also outline the Democratic Party’s mix of opportunity and dysfunction heading into the midterms: strong messaging on affordability and bullish vibes contrasted with an inability to clear primary fields and a continued failure to operate as a true national party. From the dire mood on the Hill to which unknown members could soon be household names, this episode offers a sharp, insider look at journalism, politics, and power in Washington today.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Got injured in an accident? You could be one click away from a claim worth millions. Just visit https://www.forthepeople.com/TODDCAST to start your claim now with Morgan & Morgan without leaving your couch. Remember, it's free unless you win!
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements
00:00 Reese Gorman & Kate Nocera of NOTUS join the Chuck ToddCast
01:30 What is NOTUS & how did you end up working there?
04:00 How do you execute being a truly nonpartisan newsroom?
05:30 You can’t balance the truth based on partisan affiliation
08:30 Is NOTUS the only incubator for young journalists in DC?
10:45 How Reese ended up at NOTUS?
14:00 Do you have to play to the algorithms when posting stories?
16:30 Being part of the non-legacy media is an advantage
19:00 The Washington Post has stopped covering local DC politics
21:00 Changes at the Kennedy Center aren’t being covered
23:30 Has Trump changed the culture of DC in his second term?
25:15 The relationship between the press and congress is more strained
27:15 The culture on the hill is very “cliquey”
28:15 There’s a lot more competition for scoops on the hill
29:15 What’s the mission of your podcast?
31:15 How does Steve Scalise continue to maneuver in the Republican party?
32:30 Scalise wants the speaker role currently held by Mike Johnson
34:15 Trump’s recent approval dip seems different than prior ones
35:15 There were still norms in Trump’s first term, there aren’t in 2.0
36:45 No sense of Trump fatigue from Republican members of congress
37:45 Can you tell which members are too trapped in an information bubble?
38:15 Pre-Trump members have a better sense of reality
40:00 New members don’t remember a time when congress was functional
42:00 How much of a problem could congressional leadership be for Dems?
44:30 Democrats could perform well running on affordability message
45:00 Democrats feel bullish headed into the midterms
46:15 The Dem establishment hasn’t been able to clear primary fields
48:00 Democrats aren’t a national party, can’t compete in 1/3rd of the country
50:00 The vibes and mood on the hill are terrible right now
50:30 If Dems win the TN-07 special, you could see wave of retirements
53:00 If you have DSCC questions, do you go to Schumer or Gillibrand?
55:15 A joint fundraising committee for Graham Platner is unlikely
56:15 Haley Stevens seems like a nervous candidate
56:45 Which unknown members could be household names in a year?
1:02:00 Where you can find Reese and Kate’s work
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck sits down with Jared Bernstein — veteran economic adviser to both the Obama and Clinton administrations — for a sweeping, candid breakdown of the American economy, why the data and national mood feel so misaligned, and how technological change is reshaping the labor market. Bernstein explains how the White House approached economic tradeoffs, from inflation and tariffs to the stubborn low-hire, low-fire job market. He and Chuck dig into the uncertainty surrounding AI-driven job displacement, why Americans are more skeptical of AI than peers abroad, and how policymakers failed to build guardrails around the harms of social media. Bernstein argues that a federal jobs guarantee would be far more effective than universal basic income, and that political candidates will increasingly need to get tough on tech as the power of the “Magnificent Seven” distorts markets and discourages regulation.
The conversation then turns to the structural failures of America’s healthcare system — from inelastic demand to weak cost controls — and why “Medicare for more” could be a practical starting point for reform. Bernstein outlines the entrenched inefficiencies of employer-based coverage, the rise of contract work, and the political salience but poor targeting of policies like “no tax on tips.” He also discusses the missed opportunity to protect the expanded child tax credit, the flaws in Trump’s proposed baby bond program, and the broader need for progressive taxation rather than philanthropy by billionaires. Finally, Chuck and Jared confront the realities of the national debt in an era of higher interest rates, the feasibility of reviving a robust child tax credit, and whether new supports — like credits for childcare or elder care — could help families navigate an affordability crisis that shows no sign of easing.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Got injured in an accident? You could be one click away from a claim worth millions. Just visit https://www.forthepeople.com/TODDCAST to start your claim now with Morgan & Morgan without leaving your couch. Remember, it's free unless you win!
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Timeline:
00:00 Jared Bernstein joins the Chuck ToddCast
00:30 Jared worked for both the Obama & Clinton administrations
02:15 Drafting economic policy that has the most upside, least downside
03:15 The economic data doesn’t match the vibe of the country
04:15 The Biden WH talked past the electorate but didn’t lie about economy
05:45 Biden thought the job market was most important economic indicator
08:30 Inflation has been stubborn, how long did you assume we’d have it?
10:15 Tariffs have contributed to about half a point of inflation
11:00 Inflation during Covid was a combo of low supply & high demand
12:45 Should the fed be focusing on inflation or the jobs market?
14:30 AI isn’t causing mass layoffs yet, but it has frozen hiring
15:30 We’re stuck in a low hire, low fire jobs market
16:45 Technology displaces the most workers during economic downturns
18:45 How can we avoid job displacement destruction from AI?
20:15 Americans are far more negative on AI than other western nations
21:30 Politicians failed to create guardrails for the harms of social media
22:15 We don’t know the extent of how AI will displace jobs
23:15 Government should offer a federal jobs guarantee for AI displaced jobs
24:30 Universal basic income pales in comparison to a jobs guarantee
26:15 Getting tough on tech will be critical to successful political candidates
27:30 Tech companies threaten regulators with exiting the country
28:30 Breaking up tech’s power has appeal on both sides of the aisle
29:00 Market cap of the magnificent 7 is 22 trillion dollars
31:00 The S&P 500 minus the magnificent 7 is basically flat
32:45 Non-profit hospital systems make more money than for profit ones
33:30 Leaving healthcare to the free market doesn’t work well & is expensive
34:15 Healthcare isn’t shoppable and demand is inelastic
35:45 The only healthcare solution from congress is subsidizing insurance
36:30 The ACA did a lot to control healthcare spending, but not enough
37:15 We have very few cost controls in our healthcare system
38:00 “Medicare for more” would be a great place to start fixing the system
39:15 Competition in the health insurance market has been insufficient
41:00 Health insurers don’t want to compete with government, will fight hard
42:00 Medicare won’t be free but considerably cheaper than private market
42:45 Will a shorter work week be realized in the age of AI?
43:45 Social welfare is too often correlated to GDP
44:30 A shorter work week isn’t feasible during an affordability crisis
46:15 Employer based healthcare system is deeply rooted, but inefficient
47:30 Companies have pivoted to contract work to avoid paying benefits
48:30 The salience of the “No Tax On Tips” policy
50:45 No tax on tips is poorly targeted and inefficient, but will be hard to repeal
51:30 Biden should have “died on the hill” protecting the child tax credit
53:30 Trump’s baby bond program is poorly targeted & exacerbates inequality
55:30 Government shouldn’t rely on philanthropy by billionaires & tax progressively
57:15 Raising the corporate tax was always a nonstarter in administration meetings
58:15 We’re at a dangerously unsustainable level of national debt
59:15 Higher interest rates are making the debt much harder to sustain
1:00:00 A child tax credit is feasible, but needs a pay for
1:01:00 The childcare industry is very responsive to demand
1:01:45 Could we see a “home care” credit for both kids or seniors
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck examines the sweeping global and domestic implications of Trump’s increasingly personal, transactional approach to foreign policy. He breaks down how the administration has abandoned the post–Cold War order, embraced nationalist movements, sidelined democracy promotion, and even signaled security guarantees in exchange for favors — all while crafting a national security strategy full of dangerous gaps and warmly received by the Kremlin. Chuck then turns to the explosive revelations around Trump’s pattern of selling pardons for loyalty, spotlighting the Henry Cuellar episode as a case study in this mob-style political culture. The conversation also touches on Marjorie Taylor Greene’s recent media tirades and her emerging position as a potential “true MAGA” contender in 2028, before wrapping with a look at the historically low approval of all four congressional leaders and why a dramatic leadership reshuffling by 2029 wouldn’t be surprising.
Then, Chuck sits down with Jared Bernstein — veteran economic adviser to both the Obama and Clinton administrations — for a sweeping, candid breakdown of the American economy, why the data and national mood feel so misaligned, and how technological change is reshaping the labor market. Bernstein explains how the White House approached economic tradeoffs, from inflation and tariffs to the stubborn low-hire, low-fire job market. He and Chuck dig into the uncertainty surrounding AI-driven job displacement, why Americans are more skeptical of AI than peers abroad, and how policymakers failed to build guardrails around the harms of social media. Bernstein argues that a federal jobs guarantee would be far more effective than universal basic income, and that political candidates will increasingly need to get tough on tech as the power of the “Magnificent Seven” distorts markets and discourages regulation.
The conversation then turns to the structural failures of America’s healthcare system — from inelastic demand to weak cost controls — and why “Medicare for more” could be a practical starting point for reform. Bernstein outlines the entrenched inefficiencies of employer-based coverage, the rise of contract work, and the political salience but poor targeting of policies like “no tax on tips.” He also discusses the missed opportunity to protect the expanded child tax credit, the flaws in Trump’s proposed baby bond program, and the broader need for progressive taxation rather than philanthropy by billionaires. Finally, Chuck and Jared confront the realities of the national debt in an era of higher interest rates, the feasibility of reviving a robust child tax credit, and whether new supports — like credits for childcare or elder care — could help families navigate an affordability crisis that shows no sign of easing.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the history of the United States relationship with China and the unintended consequences that came with it. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the college football playoff selection.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Got injured in an accident? You could be one click away from a claim worth millions. Just visit https://www.forthepeople.com/TODDCAST to start your claim now with Morgan & Morgan without leaving your couch. Remember, it's free unless you win!
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
05:00 Trump doesn’t want the U.S. to be the leader of the free world
06:15 Administration rejects post cold war world order
07:30 Foreign policy will be subjective based on Trump’s personal relationships
08:15 There is no more value judgement on who the US does business with
09:15 Administration is proving to be very anti-EU
10:00 Administration signals support for other nationalist movements
12:30 Trump has never believed U.S. should promote democracy
13:30 There are plenty of holes in the national security strategy
14:15 Qatari plane bribe led to NATO like security guarantee
15:30 American presidents should believe in democracy
16:45 Trump’s retreat from the world will create generational damage
17:45 The new security memo was loved by the Kremlin
18:30 Trump mad at Henry Cueller for not changing parties after pardon
19:15 Trump is clearly selling pardons in exchange for money or support
21:15 Trump’s primary complaint with Cueller was “lack of loyalty”
23:00 Trump seemingly thought pardon was in exchange for something
25:30 There should be far more outrage over the weekly sale of pardons
26:30 Marjorie Taylor-Greene blasts GOP lawmakers in 60 minutes interview
27:30 MTG believed the BS & is now finally realizing it’s BS
28:30 MTG could become the “true MAGA” candidate in 2028
29:00 All 4 congressional leaders are incredibly unpopular
30:30 Congressional GOP could use a leadership shakeup
31:15 Schumer & Jeffries are looking over their shoulders
33:15 It wouldn’t be surprising if all four leaders are gone by 2029
41:00 Jared Bernstein joins the Chuck ToddCast
41:30 Jared worked for both the Obama & Clinton administrations
43:15 Drafting economic policy that has the most upside, least downside
44:15 The economic data doesn’t match the vibe of the country
45:15 The Biden WH talked past the electorate but didn’t lie about economy
46:45 Biden thought the job market was most important economic indicator
49:30 Inflation has been stubborn, how long did you assume we’d have it?
51:15 Tariffs have contributed to about half a point of inflation
52:00 Inflation during Covid was a combo of low supply & high demand
53:45 Should the fed be focusing on inflation or the jobs market?
55:30 AI isn’t causing mass layoffs yet, but it has frozen hiring
56:30 We’re stuck in a low hire, low fire jobs market
57:45 Technology displaces the most workers during economic downturns
59:45 How can we avoid job displacement destruction from AI?
1:01:15 Americans are far more negative on AI than other western nations
1:02:30 Politicians failed to create guardrails for the harms of social media
1:03:15 We don’t know the extent of how AI will displace jobs
1:04:15 Government should offer a federal jobs guarantee for AI displaced jobs
1:05:30 Universal basic income pales in comparison to a jobs guarantee
1:07:15 Getting tough on tech will be critical to successful political candidates
1:08:30 Tech companies threaten regulators with exiting the country
1:09:30 Breaking up tech’s power has appeal on both sides of the aisle
1:10:00 Market cap of the magnificent 7 is 22 trillion dollars
1:12:00 The S&P 500 minus the magnificent 7 is basically flat
1:13:45 Non-profit hospital systems make more money than for profit ones
1:14:30 Leaving healthcare to the free market doesn’t work well & is expensive
1:15:15 Healthcare isn’t shoppable and demand is inelastic
1:16:45 The only healthcare solution from congress is subsidizing insurance
1:17:30 The ACA did a lot to control healthcare spending, but not enough
1:18:15 We have very few cost controls in our healthcare system
1:19:00 “Medicare for more” would be a great place to start fixing the system
1:20:15 Competition in the health insurance market has been insufficient
1:21:00 Health insurers don’t want to compete with government, will fight hard
1:22:00 Medicare won’t be free but considerably cheaper than private market
1:22:45 Will a shorter work week be realized in the age of AI?
1:23:45 Social welfare is too often correlated to GDP
1:24:30 A shorter work week isn’t feasible during an affordability crisis
1:26:15 Employer based healthcare system is deeply rooted, but inefficient
1:27:30 Companies have pivoted to contract work to avoid paying benefits
1:28:30 The salience of the “No Tax On Tips” policy
1:30:45 No tax on tips is poorly targeted and inefficient, but will be hard to repeal
1:31:30 Biden should have “died on the hill” protecting the child tax credit
1:33:30 Trump’s baby bond program is poorly targeted & exacerbates inequality
1:35:30 Government shouldn’t rely on philanthropy by billionaires & tax progressively
1:37:15 Raising the corporate tax was always a nonstarter in administration meetings
1:38:15 We’re at a dangerously unsustainable level of national debt
1:39:15 Higher interest rates are making the debt much harder to sustain
1:40:00 A child tax credit is feasible, but needs a pay for
1:41:00 The childcare industry is very responsive to demand
1:41:45 Could we see a “home care” credit for both kids or seniors
1:45:45 ToddCast Time Machine December 1978, 2001, 2025
1:46:30 Jimmy Carter announce normalization of relations with China
1:47:30 Kissinger praised bringing Beijing closer, Goldwater was furious
1:48:15 Business community was ecstatic
1:49:30 In 2001, China joins the WTO: hinge moment of globalization
1:50:30 Democrats & Republicans agreed on China in 2001
1:52:15 Consumers & business loved cheaper good from China
1:53:00 Bush & Gore both had the same view of China
1:53:45 Populists warned of job losses and economic pain
1:54:30 What if US had blocked China’s entry to the WTO?
1:56:15 China is now viewed as a permanent strategic rival
1:57:30 US made a bet they could promote reform in Beijing and failed
1:58:15 Bets on China reshaped the U.S. more than China
1:59:00 Ask Chuck
1:59:15 Why don’t national democrats want to be in Iowa?
2:02:15 How did Obama hurt the DNC beyond endorsing Hillary?
2:06:30 Which member of each branch would be better in another branch?
2:12:00 Could lack of a primary in 2024 lead to broader election reforms?
2:14:30 College football roundup
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