In this timely and highly practical episode of The First Day from The Fund Raising School, host Bill Stanczykiewicz, Ed.D., welcomes Jon Bergdoll, MA, interim director of data and research partnerships at the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy, for a clear-eyed conversation about what the 2025 federal tax policy changes could mean for charitable giving. The episode opens with an important reminder that taxes are not the only force shaping generosity, but they do matter, and they matter enough to influence billions of dollars in giving behavior. Drawing on new research from the Lilly Family School of Philanthropy, Jon explains that the overall effect of the policy is expected to be a modest drag on giving, roughly $5.5 to $6 billion annually, even as one major provision, the return of the universal charitable deduction, could bring more than 8 million donors into or back into the donor pool. That tension gives the episode its central insight: tax policy can expand participation while still reducing total dollars, because not all donors give at the same scale. What makes the discussion especially useful is the way Bill and Jon unpack how unevenly those effects are likely to be distributed. Smaller and midsize donors who do not itemize may actually increase their giving thanks to the new deduction, creating a projected gain of around $4 billion. At the same time, higher-income households face several new limitations that are expected to reduce giving by roughly $8 billion, a much larger effect because these donors account for a disproportionate share of total philanthropy. The episode does an excellent job of translating technical policy into practical fundraising implications, especially for organizations trying to understand whether this matters for their own donor base. Jon offers an important caution here: even organizations that do not think they serve top-tier donors may still be receiving gifts from wealthy individuals whose giving is spread across many causes. Bill reinforces the point with his usual clarity, reminding listeners that aggregate research is most valuable when it helps frame smarter, more informed conversations with actual donors. As the episode concludes, the focus shifts from prediction to action, and this is where the conversation becomes especially valuable for frontline fundraisers. Jon emphasizes that tax incentives only work when donors know they exist, noting that many households still misunderstand whether they itemize and what giving is deductible. That means nonprofits have a real opportunity, and perhaps a real responsibility, to educate supporters about the universal charitable deduction and to communicate clearly that they are qualified charitable organizations. Bill draws the lesson together beautifully: this is not simply a policy story, it is a donor-relations story. Fundraisers should not panic, and they should not assume every donor will react the same way. Instead, they should use the research as a baseline, ask better questions, and help donors understand how the new rules may intersect with their values and giving plans. For organizations navigating a shifting philanthropic landscape, this episode offers both grounding and direction, showing that even in the world of tax policy, the most important work still begins with knowing your donors well.