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Getting good results is possible for each trading year. But a good or bad result is defined by the circumstances. For automated trading it is necessary to make decisions. The problem with most decisions is that you most often don’t know how your life would have been if you had decided otherwise.
Depending on the broker you use, a cent account can be traded with a lot less capital than you would need otherwise. We use moving averages and trading to find out if the price is above or below what we consider to be the average price. Building a system that can survive outstanding situations requires that you know that they exist and how bad it can get. Once a broker I used declared insolvency in January 2015. That was just two or three days after the financial earthquake that was caused by the Swiss franc. MetaTrader comes with predefined methods for a lot of useful things. One of these things is the ability to create an automated screenshot.
Trading automation is only the last missing puzzle piece you need if you want the valuable answer to the question: what if? You maybe don’t know if you should close a position? Or if it would be better to hope that everything finally will come to a good result? From time to time I get a question like why should I trade what you trade? Well, maybe you shouldn’t do that. Today, I am still very happy that I was smart enough to start with a demo account. So it was no real money.
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Some people survive because they know how to deal with risk. For any setting that you want to prove to be an advantage, do the opposite to also prove the disadvantage. How would it change or improve the end result on a yearly basis? If we change that take profit goal, you can find out with a simple strategy test. You might think that the market is going up or down and it does the exact opposite of what you expected.
What kind of trader are you? There are some people who are willing to trade whatever somebody recommends. I just do currency pair trading, also known as forex trading. I don’t trade stocks and I don’t trade options or cryptocurrencies. Traders get paid for risk. They buy and sell something to make a profit. Would you be satisfied with just two trades in a whole year? Or let’s use the opposite example and you do 1000 trades a day. I once did a research and I found out that some of the so called professionals are actually actors that you could hire for $5 on a website. We need to work. We drive around, buy stuff and spend our time with lawn mowing fixing things.
Or we are forced to do paperwork. Even if math is not your thing, maybe you wouldn’t expect to be lucky enough to survive when your strategy is too risky. Going with a low risk setting will also decrease the probability to make profits. But I think it is a better idea to protect the capital. Do you think this trading thing is too complicated for you? I know that there was a time when things like writing, reading or driving a car seemed to be a complicated thing. Errors are not avoidable. But I learned from my errors and now I avoid bad brokers.
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Have you ever heard why somebody at the other side of the world bought or sold something? Just because you add more indicators to your chart, you will not get a more dependable entry signal. All my systems are probability based and I have traded the Brexit voting in 2016, the Euro US dollar crisis and the Swiss Franc disaster in 2015. There are people who believe everything and there are also traders who need to analyze everything, even the smallest detail. That is the other end of the scale.
Unpleasant negative feelings can influence us strongly. To survive good and bad weather you need a good system to adjust your sail because you can’t adjust the wind. I have found one thing that is very significant and a great advantage. If you only do one thing, you should really do this process with position based stop losses. Because you will find that your stop loss settings have the biggest impact on your trading results. From time to time similar currency pairs behave similar. But that can also be a problem.
A data gap might cause your system to decide that it is time to close all your trades. Whenever I manually tried to do the opposite of what I thought was necessary, the price did the opposite of the opposite. Most people will lose all their money within six months or less. The reason is simple, they do exactly what does not work. It is easy to get started. You just need to decide to do it. In January 2015 the forex market went crazy. I have never seen bigger candles on my charts before. You might notice a change of the chart candle sizes. Those visual representations are not fixed.
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You might have heard that it is a good idea to let your profits run and keep your losses short. This is a very simple thing to understand, but in reality it is very hard to do. Moods are human, but I think moods are a big problem when it comes to trading.
Most people don’t even even have done a few hundred trades. They have an opinion that might be based on 17 trades or so. One of the main problems with trading that you will have is the fact that a strategy test needs to be defined with an end date. We have all certainly seen an optical illusion. A good example would be the heat flicker over the asphalt of a heated street on a hot day. Do you consider yourself to be a reasonable person? I do, at least most of the time. My current statistics solution is still not as good as it could be because from time to time the connection gets lost or the automated updates do not work. Trading should be about numbers and results, not about feelings.
Complex decisions can be made, but this is only possible if one is able to make such complex calculations. If I would show you a profit of $1,000, how much risk would you be willing to accept to make that profit? So what do you need to do to protect your trading system? Well, you need to build your trading ship in a way that you are able to face all weather conditions, not only the warm summer days with a light breeze. The strategy tester allows you to test your strategy with historical data to find out how your automated system would have performed in the past. Defined automated rules. That is why it is called a system. Emotional trading is what I call hope trading and that didn’t work very well for most of us. Or did it?
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My main goal is to keep my money. If that works, I would also like to make enough profit to justify the risk and cover the costs. It is not so important if your current result is good or bad. It is more important that you can repeat what you do and produce consistent results. My former broker simply decided to forbid to trade certain forex pairs and told his customers that this was a security restriction in their own interest.
Most people think that the right entry signal is the most important thing that will make the difference between losses and profit. If you are able to do the right things, you might like the results but you also need to use the system in the right context.
Do you think trading is exciting? For me, good trading is dead boring. I am not excited because I have learned something. Some people ask themselves should I use a pre coded system and learn how to improve that? What do you think? A two bold profit goal could ruin the whole system. How do I know? Because I have tested it. My first profitable bollinger bands system was the one thing that convinced me that all this algo trading stuff really is worth the time.
When I started to deal with automated trading, I had to spend lots of time with the classic fundamentals. Find out what works for you before you decide to risk all you money because somebody told you what to do. The risk setting for this system influences the number of positions that might be traded at the same time on the same chart. If something works exceptionally well, you notice the fact because you are used to what you consider to be average, some things just don’t work very well. Hope trading is one of these things.
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