The Power Of Zero Show

David McKnight dissects Elon Musk's recent claims that, because of AI robotics and automation, the future will have such hyperabundance that ordinary people may no longer need to save for retirement. In Musk's future, robots are going to do all the work, AI will create prosperity, and society will provide everything you need at a little or no – cost. While David likes Musk's vision for the future, he doesn't agree with him on this one. When examined through the lens of economics, government obligations, and retirement realities, Musk's idea of the future collapses. David identifies five specific reasons why that will happen. The first reason, and perhaps the biggest flaw in Musk's argument, is that AI productivity doesn't automatically translate into personal wealth. David points out that, during major technological revolutions, productivity increases faster than wages, capital investors capture most of the gains, and wealth becomes more concentrated at the top. In the most optimistic AI scenarios, economists say that it takes decades for productivity gains to spread to the entire population; if they ever do. The second reason why Musk's predictions won't probably come true has to do with the fact that AI won't fix the U.S. national debt or entitlement crisis. The U.S. has $40 trillion in national debt, which is projected to grow $2 trillion per year over the next 10 years (with annual interest payments already over $1 trillion per year). Furthermore, the Social Security Trust Fund is forecasted to run out in 2033, while the Medicare Trust Fund in 2031, and 10,000 baby boomers retire every day. Yet, no rapid explosion of AI innovation will change any of this. The third pet peeve David has with Elon Musk's predictions is that AI has no built-in mechanism for sharing wealth. "Musk's argument hinges on the idea that AI abundance will automatically be shared, but it won't. Here's how this will likely go down: the profits of AI companies will flow to shareholders, and governments will collect very little from that activity", says David. The fourth reason why David disagrees with Musk's views for the future is that universal basic income is NOT a retirement plan. The final reason why Musk is wrong about the need to save for retirement is that AI increases lifespans which, in turn, increases retirement costs. Any major economist studying debt trajectories seems to agree: tax rates in the future are likely to be much higher than they are today. The current status quo is where the power of your retirement strategy becomes indispensable. Remember: if tax rates in the future are higher than they are today, then every dollar you withdraw from a taxable 401(k) or IRA is going to be worth a lot less than you ever thought possible. David's solution consists of, over time, repositioning your money into tax-free vehicles – primarily Roth IRAs and Roth 401(k)s. Mentioned in this episode: David's new book, available now for pre-order: The Secret Order of Millionaires David's national bestselling book: The Guru Gap: How America's Financial Gurus Are Leading You Astray, and How to Get Back on Track Tax-Free Income for Life: A Step-by-Step Plan for a Secure Retirement by David McKnight DavidMcKnight.com DavidMcKnightBooks.com PowerOfZero.com (free video series) @mcknightandco on Twitter @davidcmcknight on Instagram David McKnight on YouTube Get David's Tax-free Tool Kit at taxfreetoolkit.com

David McKnight explores one of the most fascinating and misunderstood topics: Retirement planning annuities. In the article Annuitization Puzzles, Economics Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler tries to answer a deceptively simple question: If annuities are so good at protecting retirees from outliving their money, why don't more people buy them? Thaler, one of the founding fathers of behavioral economics, coined the phrase "the annuity puzzle" to describe a striking contradiction between theory and real life. According to traditional economic models, the rational choice would be for retirees to annuitize at least some portion of their wealth – yet, only very few Americans go out and buy a pure life annuity. The answers to this contradiction are almost entirely psychological. Loss aversion, loss of control, complexity and distrust, fear of disinheriting errors, underestimating longevity risks are the key reasons why that happens. David points out that most retirees believe they won't live as long as they actually will;they underestimate the probability of living into their 90s. "The Annuity Puzzle exists because economics assumes we're rational, while real retirees behave like human beings. They're driven by emotions, fears, and biases, not economic data," says David. Remember not all annuities are created equal. David touches upon the key differences between immediate and fixed index annuities. Did you know that, while they aren't stock market replacements, fixed index annuities (FIAs) make for excellent bond alternatives? Furthermore, FIAs do resolve the flexibility and liquidity concerns many retirees face. In his book Tax-Free Income for Life: A Step-by-Step Plan for a Secure Retirement, David discusses what he considers the most powerful innovation in the annuity space today – he shares more about it in this episode. What he discusses isn't the old single premium immediate annuity you may be familiar with… rather, he illustrates a modern retirement income engine that blends the science of risk pooling with the tax-free advantages of Roth planning. Mentioned in this episode: David's new book, available now for pre-order: The Secret Order of Millionaires David's national bestselling book: The Guru Gap: How America's Financial Gurus Are Leading You Astray, and How to Get Back on Track Tax-Free Income for Life: A Step-by-Step Plan for a Secure Retirement by David McKnight DavidMcKnight.com DavidMcKnightBooks.com PowerOfZero.com (free video series) @mcknightandco on Twitter @davidcmcknight on Instagram David McKnight on YouTube Get David's Tax-free Tool Kit at taxfreetoolkit.com Annuitization Puzzles by Richard Thaler, Shlomo Benartzi, and Alessandro Previtero S&P 500 Penguin Random House

David McKnight discusses the three assets he believes you really need for a stable, predictable tax-efficient retirement. Getting them right will dramatically reduce the risks that derail most retirements: Market risks, sequence of returns risks, longevity risks, tax risks, and long-term care risks. Stock market investments, with a 70% total US stock market index and a 30% total international stock market index, are the first thing David recommends. He defines them as "Your growth engine, the one that pays for your discretionary expenses in retirement." David goes over aspirational and shock expenses. A Fixed Index Annuity (or FIA) is the second asset you'll need in retirement. A FIA is the one asset that eliminates the longevity risk, the risk of living so long that you deplete all your other assets. Then there's Index Universal Life Policy (or IUL). A recent Ernst & Young study found that retirement plans that included IULs, as well as FIAs, provided more income in retirement, a higher likelihood of money lasting through life expectancy, and more money to heirs over the investment-only approach to retirement." Remember: If you withdraw money from your stock portfolio in a down market, you lock in losses and your portfolio has a much harder time recovering. In other words, the IUL acts as your retirement shock absorber. Did you know that, because of its safe and productive growth, the IUL can serve as what we call a "volatility buffer" in retirement? And there's more! In fact, an IUL can also serve as a bond alternative during the accumulation years – but without the interest rate risk or bond price volatility. David sees IULs as the most dynamic asset of them all – it's your volatility buffer, your bond alternative, and your long-term care safety net. Mentioned in this episode: David's new book, available now for pre-order: The Secret Order of Millionaires David's national bestselling book: The Guru Gap: How America's Financial Gurus Are Leading You Astray, and How to Get Back on Track Tax-Free Income for Life: A Step-by-Step Plan for a Secure Retirement by David McKnight DavidMcKnight.com DavidMcKnightBooks.com PowerOfZero.com (free video series) @mcknightandco on Twitter @davidcmcknight on Instagram David McKnight on YouTube Get David's Tax-free Tool Kit at taxfreetoolkit.com Ken Fisher Ernst & Young

David McKnight explores the five biggest retirement mistakes people make. When it comes to retirement "traps", the obvious things such as picking the wrong stock, missing the next bull market or retiring at the wrong time are what typically comes to mind… The first mistake people tend to make when it comes to their retirement is believing that tax diversification is good enough. "Having the bulk of your wealth in tax-deferred accounts is like going into a business partnership with the IRS: every year, they get to vote on what percentage of your profits they get to keep. Not a very good business partnership, if you ask me," says David. The next mistake is one of the most subtle and expensive mistakes retirees make: ignoring the standard deduction when doing Roth conversions. The third big retirement mistake people make is trying to time the market instead of timing the tax code. Remember: "Markets move up and down, but when a country is in a debt crisis, tax rates only move in one direction: Up!" Are you using bonds as safe money in retirement? That's what the fourth retirement planning mistake David has encountered often in his busy work schedule. David suggests to time the tax code, instead of timing the market… Replacing your bonds with annuities that have a guaranteed lifetime income feature is something you should consider. The fifth and final mistake to stay away from is not taking enough risk in retirement. David explains that your annuities can provide income in the year after a down year in your stock portfolio. That gives your stocks a chance to recover before you take further distributions. Don't forget, the stock portion of the portfolio has one job and one job only: Make sure your money lasts a full 30-year retirement. Mentioned in this episode: David's new book, available now for pre-order: The Secret Order of Millionaires David's national bestselling book: The Guru Gap: How America's Financial Gurus Are Leading You Astray, and How to Get Back on Track Tax-Free Income for Life: A Step-by-Step Plan for a Secure Retirement by David McKnight DavidMcKnight.com DavidMcKnightBooks.com PowerOfZero.com (free video series) @mcknightandco on Twitter @davidcmcknight on Instagram David McKnight on YouTube Get David's Tax-free Tool Kit at taxfreetoolkit.com Tom Hegna

The focus of this episode is on what Dave Ramsey refers to as the only three investments he owns. "I have three investments: my business, paid-for real estate with no mortgages, and mutual funds," says Ramsey. He goes on to emphasize that he doesn't play single stock, doesn't screw around with gold or Bitcoin, and that he doesn't need your stock tip from your "broke golfing buddy with an opinion." Host David McKnight wonders whether Ramsey's investment model actually works in principle, and if parts of it can be replicated by everyday investors… Ramsey's business functions in two powerful ways: it provides current cash flow so he doesn't have to draw down investments, and it represents a large future liquidity event – this alone dramatically reduces the pressure on the rest of his portfolio. David highlights the fact that Ramsey doesn't pick individual stocks. Instead, he spreads his money across the entire global stock market using mutual funds. Ramsey famously advocates an even split: 25% in growth and income funds, 25% in aggressive growth funds, and 25% in international funds. David's recommendation is to "Invest 70% in a total U.S. stock market index, 30% in a total international stock market index, and 0% in bonds." By doing that, you'll own the entire market instead of trying to outsmart it. It is possible to adopt a 100% stock portfolio even if you don't own a business or don't have a paid off real estate throwing off residual income – David explains how. You could have a guaranteed lifetime income annuity have the same role played by real estate in Dave Ramsey's approach. Mentioned in this episode: David's new book, available now for pre-order: The Secret Order of Millionaires David's national bestselling book: The Guru Gap: How America's Financial Gurus Are Leading You Astray, and How to Get Back on Track Tax-Free Income for Life: A Step-by-Step Plan for a Secure Retirement by David McKnight DavidMcKnight.com DavidMcKnightBooks.com PowerOfZero.com (free video series) @mcknightandco on Twitter @davidcmcknight on Instagram David McKnight on YouTube Get David's Tax-free Tool Kit at taxfreetoolkit.com Dave Ramsey