CONFLICTED

As jihadist violence in Mali escalates, Thomas and Aimen trace the history and present-day power of JNIM (‘Support Group for Islam and Muslims’), an Al Qaeda affiliate that has been laying siege to the capital Bamako. Will Mali’s secular state survive? Or is a jihadist takeover of the whole country now inevitable? **Including BONUS MATERIAL for subscribers to the Conflicted Community!** Thomas and Aimen discuss: The evolution of JNIM out of AQIM (‘Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb’) The jihadist ‘privateers’ who built the organisation Slavery and racial hierarchy in the Sahel Will JNIM’s leader Iyad ag-Ghali become the King of Mali? Fuel blockades, economic warfare, and attacks on the capital, Bamako Whether Mali can still exist as a sovereign state Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠ Find us on X: ⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠ And Facebook: ⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠ And Instagram: ⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠ And YouTube: ⁠https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictedYoutube⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠ Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. Produced by Thomas Small and edited by Lizzy Andrews. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this episode, Aaron Zelin returns to Conflicted to unpack the extraordinary collapse of the Syrian Democratic Forces’ position in northeast Syria over the past week — and what the fallout could mean for Syria’s fragile post-Assad order. Aaron explains: Why the March 2025 framework agreement ultimately failed Why Sunni Arab tribes abandoned the SDF — and how Damascus prepared the ground How and why fighting erupted in Kurdish neighbourhoods of Aleppo The rapid fall of SDF-held areas in Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, and Hasakah What happened at ISIS prisons and detention camps during the collapse Why claims of ‘Kurdish abandonment’ by the United States are misleading The PKK factor — and the risk of a new insurgency or terrorism campaign What Syria’s consolidation means for ISIS, regional stability, and the country’s future Follow Aaron on X: https://x.com/azelin This episode includes BONUS MATERIAL after the credits ONLY for subscribers to the Conflicted Community. Join the Conflicted Community here: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm  Find us on X: https://x.com/MHconflicted And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted And Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. This episode was produced and edited by Thomas Small. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On the first anniversary of the dismantling of USAID, the United States Agency for International Development, Thomas and Aimen trace the history of the organisation and ask whether USAID’s collapse represents a failure of liberal internationalism itself, or simply the end of one particular way of organizing American power in the world. They discuss: Trump’s 2025 executive order and the effective end of USAID USAID, anti-communism, and the CIA The Clinton-era debate over whether USAID should survive at all USAID in the War on Terror: Iraq, Afghanistan, and counterinsurgency The Arab Spring and the shift toward NGO-mediated governance Corruption in USAID What the end of USAID tells us about the end of the unipolar era Join the Conflicted Community here: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/  Find us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MHconflicted And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted And Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod And YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictedYoutube  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. Produced by Thomas Small and edited by Lizzy Andrews. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this episode, Yemeni researcher and political analyst Baraa Shiban (a great friend of the show) tells the thrilling behind-the-scenes story of how different visions for the future of Yemen led long-simmering tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia to explode into the open. For further reference, here’s a helpful map of Yemen showing current areas of control: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/info/infographic/49654  Baraa explains: How Saudi Arabia and the UAE entered the war with different goals The role Yemeni political parties and militias played in the conflict Why southern Yemen has never been unified The UAE’s obsessive fight against the Muslim Brotherhood The emergence of parallel security structures and rival centres of power How Saudi Arabia acted as a mediator between rival factions The explosive gains, and rapid reversals, of Yemen’s renegade Southern Transition Council Follow Baraa on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/baraashiban/ Follow Baraa on X: https://x.com/BShtwtr Join the Conflicted Community here: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm  Find us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MHconflicted And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted And Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. This episode was produced by Thomas Small and edited by Lizzy Andrews. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A rare public rupture has emerged between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Triggered by a dramatic escalation over Yemen in late December 2025, the dispute has exposed deeper ideological and strategic differences between the two Gulf powers. In this episode, Thomas and Aimen step back from the battlefield to examine the historical roots of Saudi–Emirati rivalry and why Yemen became the arena where these differences finally collided in public. They discuss: The 30 December 2025 Saudi airstrikes and the ultimatum to UAE forces Why Yemen is the arena, not the cause, of the Saudi–UAE dispute Continental vs maritime power in the Arabian Peninsula The British influence on the Emirati state The Buraimi Oasis dispute Tribal allegiance and ‘weird borders’ in Gulf geopolitics Why the UAE tolerates breakaway regions and Saudi Arabia cannot Whether this rupture will be patched up and what happens if it isn’t Join the Conflicted Community here: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/  Find us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MHconflicted And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted And Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. Produced by Thomas Small and edited by Alan Leer. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices