Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking - Baillie Gifford

From Pony.ai launching a robo-taxi service during a Shanghai storm to E Ink revolutionising the way supermarkets label their shelves – emerging market companies are in many cases leapfrogging western counterparts. In this episode, investment manager...

AI lab Anthropic, digital bank Revolut, Chinese social network Xiaohongshu and supply chain specialist Zetwerk count among Baillie Gifford’s most recent private growth company investments. These bold pioneers are part of an expanding asset class, re...

Japan’s smaller companies represent a “niche and overlooked” asset class, but that’s precisely the growth opportunity, says Brian Lum. The Baillie Gifford investment manager reveals some of the standouts he’s recently met, including a firm using AI to forecast the weather more accurately and another helping people with disabilities get hired.Background:Brian Lum became lead manager of Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon investment trust and joint manager of our Japanese Smaller Companies Fund in May. In this episode, he shares stories from a busy trip to the country, his first in his new roles. And he explains why Japan enjoys some of the world’s best conditions to nurture innovative and disruptive growth businesses.Companies discussed include:Weathernews – a business safeguarding ships and planes from storms and helping convenience stores anticipate which goods will experience surges in demand.LITALICO – a firm that specialises in providing training to people with mental and physical disabilities.Soracom – a company blending generative AI with Internet of Things sensors.Seria – the retailer obsessing over every detail to make a profit from selling goods for the equivalent of 50p (65 cents).Kohoku Kogyo – the manufacturer demonstrating high craftsmanship to ensure electric cars run safely and smoothly. Resources:Baillie Gifford Shin NipponDisruption WeekJapanese Smaller Companies FundQuantum Computing Since DemocritusShort Briefings on Long Term ThinkingSWCC Showa: rewiring JapanVirtual visionaries: Japan’s Cover Corp rules the VTubing realm Companies mentioned include:Kohoku KogyoLITALICONikkisoPsiQuantumSeriaSoracomSWCCWeathernews   Timecodes:00:00 Introduction01:55   Japanese influences02:25  A focus on smaller companies03:55  The Galápagos Syndrome06:25  Learned lessons08:00  Face-to-face meetings08:55  LITALICO training workers with disabilities12:55   Weathernews and climate change15:00   AI-enhanced weather forecasts16:35   Soracom mixes generative AI with the Internet of Things20:40  Seria’s detail-obsessed 100-yen shops23:15   Kohoku Kogyo’s crafted components25:30  The long-term perspective26:30  A niche, overlooked opportunity28:30  Book choice

“If you’re trying to find the very best growth businesses on the planet – a benchmark isn’t a sensible place to start.” Baillie Gifford’s chief executive Tim Campbell explains the advantages of our style of active investing, the importance of long-termism and how AI fits into our process. Background:In April, Tim Campbell became Baillie Gifford’s chief executive and one of its managing partners. Earlier in his career, he was an investment manager before switching to Client Services, where he led our Emerging Markets Clients Team.In this podcast, he explores how our investment teams adopted a conviction-led approach that centres on each company's merits, regardless of its weighting in benchmark stock indices. He describes what we mean by long-termism and the importance of having the right incentives in place. And he explains why being “out of step” with some market trends helps us serve both society and our clients’ interests.The second half of the show focuses on changes afoot, ranging from further private company investments – including a recent holding in AI lab Anthropic – to our own adoption of artificial intelligence technologies and an exploration of new ways to access our strategies. Resources:Baillie Gifford: Actual investors (https://www.bailliegifford.com/actual)Disruption Week (https://www.bailliegifford.com/disruptionweek2025)Drayton and MackenzieOne Useful Thing: Ethan Mollick’s blog (https://www.oneusefulthing.org/)Our history (https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individual-investors/about-us/philosophy-and-values/our-history/)Private company investments (https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individual-investors/about-us/private-companies/?tab=companieshttps://www.bailliegifford.com/about-us/private-companies/?tab=companies)Short Briefings on Long Term ThinkingThe Friction Project Companies mentioned include:Anthropic (https://www.anthropic.com/)Amazon (https://www.aboutamazon.com/about-us)MercadoLibre (https://news.mercadolibre.com/en/acercade)NVIDIA (https://www.nvidia.com/en-gb/)Runway AI (https://runwayml.com/)Timecodes00:00 Introduction02:10 From music in the Middle East to investing in Edinburgh03:15 Making the move to Client Services05:00 Rewriting the investment playbook06:30 Client hunger for benchmark agnosticism07:40 Active versus passive investing10:20 A mutual understanding with clients11:55 Drawdowns and hold discipline14:30 Defining long-termism17:00 Private company investments19:30 Investing in Anthropic and Runway AI24:55 ‘The mission doesn’t change’27:35 Book choice

Inside ownership can give companies an advantage when it comes to long-term growth. That includes having a leader or family with a substantial stake in the business. And it also covers firms with farsighted backers, such as philanthropic foundations...