Probable Causation

Diogo Britto talks about how job loss affects criminal behavior in Brazil. “The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Insurance on Crime in Brazil” by Diogo Britto, Paolo Pinotti, and Breno Sampaio. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Crime and the Labour Market" by Richard B. Freeman. “Job Displacement, Unemployment, and Crime: Evidence From Danish Microdata and Reforms" by Patrick Bennett and Amine Ouazad. “Job Displacement and Crime: Evidence From Norwegian Register Data” by Mari Rege, Torbjørn Skardhamar, Kjetil Telle, and Mark Votruba. “The Effects of Job Loss on Crime: Evidence From Administrative Data" by Evan Rose. “Job Loss, Credit, and Crime in Colombia" by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Christian Posso, and Jorge Tamayo. "Snapping Back: Food Stamp Bans and Criminal Recidivism" by Cody Tuttle. Probable Causation Episode 48: Cody Tuttle. "Does Public Assistance Reduce Recidivism?" by Crystal S. Yang. "Does Welfare Prevent Crime? The Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed from SSI" by Manasi Deshpande and Michael Mueller-Smith. Probable Causation Episode 72: Manasi Deshpande. "Cash Transfers and Violent Crime in Indonesia" by Elías Cisneros, Krisztina Kis-Katos, Jan Priebe, and Lennart Reiners. "Job Displacement, Unemployment Benefits and Domestic Violence" by Sonia Bhalotra, Diogo Britto, Paolo Pinotti, and Breno Sampaio. Want more? Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice is available now. I have a Substack! Sign up for Probable Causation: The Newsletter.

Manisha Shah talks about reducing intimate partner violence among young people in Tanzania. "Sex, Power, and Adolescence: Intimate Partner Violence and Sexual Behaviors" by Manisha Shah, Jennifer Seager, Joao Montalvao, and Markus Goldstein. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Income Changes and Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from Unconditional Cash Transfers in Kenya" by Johannes Haushofer, Charlotte Ringdal, Jeremy P. Shapiro, and Xiao Yu Wang. “The Effect of Cash, Vouchers, and Food Transfers on Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Northern Ecuador” by Melissa Hidrobo, Amber Peterman and Lori Heise. “Love on the Rocks: Domestic Violence and Alcohol Abuse in Rural Mexico” by Manuela Angelucci. “Public Transfers and Domestic Violence: The Roles of Private Information and Spousal Control" by Gustavo J. Bobonis, Melissa González-Brenes, and Roberto Castro. “For Better or For Worse?: Education and the Prevalence of Domestic Violence in Turkey” by Bilge Erten and Pinar Keskin. “Love, hate and murder: Commitment devices in violent relationships” by Anna Aizer and Pedro Dal Bó. “The Gender Wage Gap and Domestic Violence" by Anna Aizer. “Advancing the Agency of Adolescent Girls” by Eric Edmonds, Ben Feigenberg, and Jessica Leight. “Reshaping Adolescents’ Gender Attitudes: Evidence from a School-Based Experiment in India" by Diva Dhar, Tarun Jain and Seema Jayachandran. “Effective prevention of intimate partner violence through couples training: a randomised controlled trial of Indashyikirwa in Rwanda" by Kristin Dunkle, Erin Stern, Sangeeta Chatterji, and Lori Heise. “Effect of a structural intervention for the prevention of intimate-partner violence and HIV in rural South Africa: a cluster randomised trial” by Paul M. Pronyk, James R. Hargreaves, Julia C. Kim, Linda A. Morison, Godfrey Phetla, Charlotte Watts, Joanna Busza, and John D.H. Porter. “Transfers, Behavior Change Communication, and Intimate Partner Violence: Postprogram Evidence from Rural Bangladesh" by Shalini Roy, Melissa Hidrobo, John Hoddinott, and Akhter Ahmed. “Theoretical Underpinnings and Meta-analysis of the Effects of Cash Transfers on Intimate Partner Violence in Low-and Middle-Income Countries" by Victoria Baranov, Lisa Cameron, Diana Contreras Suarez and Claire Thibout. "A rigorous global evidence review of interventions to prevent violence against women and girls" by Alice Kerr-Wilson, Andrew Gibbs, Erika McAslan Fraser, Leanne Ramsoomar, Anna Parke, Hussaind M.A. Khuwaja, and Rachel Jewkes. "Guy Talk: Catalyzing Peer Effects on IPV through Virtual Support Groups for Men" by Christopher Boyer, Erica Field, Rachel Lehrer, Andrew Morrison, and Claudia Piras. "Multifaceted Programs Targeting Women In Fragile Settings: Evidence from the Democratic Republic of Congo" by Manuela Angelucci, Rachel Heath, and Eva Noble. "Harm and Harmony" by Siwan Anderson and Chris Bidner. Want more? Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice is available now. I have a Substack! Sign up for Probable Causation: The Newsletter.

Juan Vargas talks about the unintended consequences of an anti-drug policy in Colombia. "The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement" by Mounu Prem, Juan F. Vargas, and Daniel Mejía. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Inside the war on drugs: Effectiveness and unintended consequences of a large illicit crops eradication program in Colombia" by Alberto Abadie, Maria C. Acevedo, Maurice Kugler, and Juan Vargas. “Estimating the causal effect of forced eradication on coca cultivation in Colombian municipalities" by Luis Carlos Reyes. “On the effects of enforcement on illegal markets: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in Colombia" by Daniel Mejía, Pascual Restrepo, and Sandra V. Rozo. “Bushes and bullets: Illegal cocaine markets and violence in Colombia" by Daniel Mejía and Pascual Restrepo. “Rural windfall or a new resource curse? Coca, income, and civil conflict in Colombia" by Joshua D. Angrist and Adriana D. Kugler. “A geography of illicit crops (coca leaf) and armed conflict in Colombia" by Ana María Díaz and Fabio Sánchez. “The health consequences of aerial spraying illicit crops: The case of Colombia" by Adriana Camacho and Daniel Mejía. “Deforestation and Coca Cultivation Rooted in Twentieth-Century Development Projects" by Liliana M. Dávalos, Karina M. Sanchez, and Dolors Armenteras. "Making a Narco: Childhood Exposure to Illegal Labor Markets and Criminal Life Paths" by Maria Micaela Sviatschi. "Coca-Based Local Growth and Its Socio-Economic Impact in Colombia" by Lucas Marín Llanes, Manuel Fernández Sierra, María Alejandra Vélez, Eduard F. Martínez-González, and Paulo Jose Murillo-Sandoval. "Cocaine Goes Bananas: Global Spillovers from an Illicit Supply Shock" by Gianmarco Daniele, Adam Soliman, and Juan F. Vargas. Want more? Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice is available now. I have a Substack! Sign up for Probable Causation: The Newsletter.

David Phillips talks about the effects of providing free public transit. "Eliminating Fares to Expand Opportunities: Experimental Evidence on the Impacts of Free Public Transportation on Economic and Social Disparities" by Rebecca Brough, Matthew Freedman, and David C. Phillips. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Getting to Work: Experimental Evidence on Job Search and Transportation Costs" by David C. Phillips. “Public Transit and the Spatial Distribution of Minority Employment: Evidence from a Natural Experiment" by Harry Holzer, John Quigley, and Steven Raphael. “The Effects of the Announcement and Opening of Light Rail Transit Stations on Neighborhood Crime" by Stephen Billings, Suzanne Leland, and David Swindell. "Means-Tested Public Transportation Subsidies: Causal Evidence and Implications" by Seoyoon Ahn, Matthew Freedman, David Phillips, and Atheendar Venkataramani. “The Role of the Fare in Welfare: Public Transportation Subsidies and Their Effects on Low-Income Households" by Seth Chizeck and Oluchi Mbonu. “Do Free and Discounted Fares Increase Transit Use, Well-being, and Employment for Low-Income Residents? Evidence from a Pilot Program in Washington, DC" by Alyssa Huberts, Roxanne Oroxom, Kayleigh B. Campbell, Katherine N. Gan, Danielle Moore, and Sam Quinney. Want more? Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice is available now.

Jennifer Doleac and Kathryn Paige Harden have a conversation about their new books, both about crime and punishment. Jen’s book: The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice. Paige’s book: Original Sin: On the Genetics of Vice, the Problem of Blame, and the Future of Forgiveness. Jennifer Doleac is the Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice at Arnold Ventures. Paige Harden is a Professor of Psychology at the University of Texas at Austin.