Probable Causation

Juan Vargas talks about the unintended consequences of an anti-drug policy in Colombia. "The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement" by Mounu Prem, Juan F. Vargas, and Daniel Mejía. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Inside the war on drugs: Effectiveness and unintended consequences of a large illicit crops eradication program in Colombia" by Alberto Abadie, Maria C. Acevedo, Maurice Kugler, and Juan Vargas. “Estimating the causal effect of forced eradication on coca cultivation in Colombian municipalities" by Luis Carlos Reyes. “On the effects of enforcement on illegal markets: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in Colombia" by Daniel Mejía, Pascual Restrepo, and Sandra V. Rozo. “Bushes and bullets: Illegal cocaine markets and violence in Colombia" by Daniel Mejía and Pascual Restrepo. “Rural windfall or a new resource curse? Coca, income, and civil conflict in Colombia" by Joshua D. Angrist and Adriana D. Kugler. “A geography of illicit crops (coca leaf) and armed conflict in Colombia" by Ana María Díaz and Fabio Sánchez. “The health consequences of aerial spraying illicit crops: The case of Colombia" by Adriana Camacho and Daniel Mejía. “Deforestation and Coca Cultivation Rooted in Twentieth-Century Development Projects" by Liliana M. Dávalos, Karina M. Sanchez, and Dolors Armenteras. "Making a Narco: Childhood Exposure to Illegal Labor Markets and Criminal Life Paths" by Maria Micaela Sviatschi. "Coca-Based Local Growth and Its Socio-Economic Impact in Colombia" by Lucas Marín Llanes, Manuel Fernández Sierra, María Alejandra Vélez, Eduard F. Martínez-González, and Paulo Jose Murillo-Sandoval. "Cocaine Goes Bananas: Global Spillovers from an Illicit Supply Shock" by Gianmarco Daniele, Adam Soliman, and Juan F. Vargas. Want more? Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice is available now. I have a Substack! Sign up for Probable Causation: The Newsletter.

David Phillips talks about the effects of providing free public transit. "Eliminating Fares to Expand Opportunities: Experimental Evidence on the Impacts of Free Public Transportation on Economic and Social Disparities" by Rebecca Brough, Matthew Freedman, and David C. Phillips. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Getting to Work: Experimental Evidence on Job Search and Transportation Costs" by David C. Phillips. “Public Transit and the Spatial Distribution of Minority Employment: Evidence from a Natural Experiment" by Harry Holzer, John Quigley, and Steven Raphael. “The Effects of the Announcement and Opening of Light Rail Transit Stations on Neighborhood Crime" by Stephen Billings, Suzanne Leland, and David Swindell. "Means-Tested Public Transportation Subsidies: Causal Evidence and Implications" by Seoyoon Ahn, Matthew Freedman, David Phillips, and Atheendar Venkataramani. “The Role of the Fare in Welfare: Public Transportation Subsidies and Their Effects on Low-Income Households" by Seth Chizeck and Oluchi Mbonu. “Do Free and Discounted Fares Increase Transit Use, Well-being, and Employment for Low-Income Residents? Evidence from a Pilot Program in Washington, DC" by Alyssa Huberts, Roxanne Oroxom, Kayleigh B. Campbell, Katherine N. Gan, Danielle Moore, and Sam Quinney. Want more? Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice is available now.

Jennifer Doleac and Kathryn Paige Harden have a conversation about their new books, both about crime and punishment. Jen’s book: The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice. Paige’s book: Original Sin: On the Genetics of Vice, the Problem of Blame, and the Future of Forgiveness. Jennifer Doleac is the Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice at Arnold Ventures. Paige Harden is a Professor of Psychology at the University of Texas at Austin.

Steeve Marchand talks about the effects of prison programs on behavior. "Prison Rehabilitation Programs and Recidivism: Evidence from Variations in Availability" by William Arbour, Guy Lacroix, and Steeve Marchand. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack. “Does incarceration length affect labor market outcomes?” by Rasmus Landersø. “Incarceration, recidivism, and employment" by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. “Tough on young offenders: Harmful or helpful?” by Giulia Lotti. “Leave the door open? Prison conditions and recidivism" by Giovanni Mastrobuoni and Daniele Terlizzese. “Do better prisons reduce recidivism? Evidence from a prison construction program" by Santigo Tobón. “'Something Works' in U.S. Jails: Misconduct and Recidivism Effects of the IGNITE Program” by Marcella Alsan, Arkey Barnett, Peter Hull, and Crystal Yang. Probable Causation Episode 113: Peter Hull "Can prisons move people into better jobs? A look at correctional vocational training programs and sectoral employment outcomes" by Britte van Tiem. "Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour. Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour "Encouraging Desistance from Crime" by Jennifer Doleac. Want more? Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice is available now. I have a Substack! Sign up for Probable Causation: The Newsletter.

Ezra Golberstein talks about the impacts of school-based mental health services. "Effects of School-Based Mental Health Services on Youth Outcomes" by Ezra Golberstein, Irina Zainullina, Aaron Sojourner, and Mark A. Sander. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Investing in Children to Address the Child Mental Health Crisis" by Janet Currie. “The FDA and ABCs: Unintended Consequences of Antidepressant Warnings on Human Capital" by Susan H. Busch, Ezra Golberstein, and Ellen Meara. “The Rate of Return to the HighScope Perry Preschool Program" by James J. Heckman, Seong Hyeok Moon, Rodrigo Pinto, Peter A. Savelyev, and Adam Yavitz.   Want more? Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice comes out February 24th, and is available for pre-order now.