https://contrarianpod.com/content/podcasts/season6/us-election-black-swans-chances-political-violence/Dr. Mike Blyth of risk services company Sigma7, joins the podcast to discuss 'unknown unknowns' facing next week's US election. Blyth is a career national security professional, having worked for US and British civil and military operations globally. This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers that day. To learn about premium subscription options, <a href= "https://contrarianpod.substack.com/" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">visit our Substack</a>. Content Highlights <ul> <li>Background on the guest and why he is qualified to speak of all things national and international security (1:42);</li> <li>Main concerns entering the election. External and internal agitators have raised the risk of political violence (4:57);</li> <li>Gaming out the various scenarios. Almost all involve violence, especially if former President Donald Trump is not elected (7:26);</li> <li>The narrative on social media and elsewhere is consistent with what typically presages violence. "It's a tinderbox. We're waiting for the flame to be lit" (11:26);</li> <li>What parts of the economy might be most at risk and which might be more resilient (16:49);</li> <li>What about geopolitical risks? (20:42).</li> </ul> For more about the guest, visit the website <a href= "https://www.s7risk.com/" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">S7risk.com</a>.

<description>&lt;p&gt; https://contrarianpod.com/content/podcasts/season6/us-election-black-swans-chances-political-violence/Dr. Mike Blyth of risk services company Sigma7, joins the podcast to discuss 'unknown unknowns' facing next week's US election.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Blyth is a career national security professional, having worked for US and British civil and military operations globally.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;div&gt;&lt;em&gt;This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers that day. To learn about premium subscription options, &lt;a href= "https://contrarianpod.substack.com/" target="_blank" rel= "noopener"&gt;visit our Substack&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt; &lt;h1&gt;Content Highlights&lt;/h1&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;Background on the guest and why he is qualified to speak of all things national and international security (1:42);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Main concerns entering the election. External and internal agitators have raised the risk of political violence (4:57);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Gaming out the various scenarios. Almost all involve violence, especially if former President Donald Trump is not elected (7:26);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;The narrative on social media and elsewhere is consistent with what typically presages violence. "It's a tinderbox. We're waiting for the flame to be lit" (11:26);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;What parts of the economy might be most at risk and which might be more resilient (16:49);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;What about geopolitical risks? (20:42).&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;For more about the guest, visit the website &lt;a href= "https://www.s7risk.com/" target="_blank" rel= "noopener"&gt;S7risk.com&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>

https://contrarianpod.com/content/podcasts/season6/us-election-black-swans-chances-political-violence/Dr. Mike Blyth of risk services company Sigma7, joins the podcast to discuss 'unknown unknowns' facing next week's US election. Blyth is a career...

US Election 'Black Swans' Include Significant Chance of Political Violence

Marc Chapman of Bannockburn Global Forex rejoins the podcast to discuss all things US election and the impact a Trump victory would have on economics and financial markets. This podcast episode was recorded Monday, Oct. 28, 2024 and was made available for premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our <a href="https://contrarianpod.substack.com/subscribe" target= "_blank" rel="noopener">Substack</a>. Content Highlights <ul> <li>The impact of a Trump victory next Tuesday is seen as greater as the impact of a Harris victory. What this means for markets and the economy (2:11);</li> <li>What if Trump doesn't win? That has become the contrarian take (3:45);</li> <li>How it all might affect Mexico, the US' largest trading partner (5:40);</li> <li>The US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement is up for review next year. Expect more concessions from Mexico regardless of who's in the White House (and Congress) (12:22);</li> <li>However the outlook is not all bad for all Mexican securities... (15:40);</li> <li>Concerns Trump will try to limit the Federal Reserve's independence (19:38);</li> <li>Don't overlook the possibility of a recession early in the next president's term (25:44);</li> <li>Trump victory may lead to more mergers and acquisitions (26:50).</li> </ul> More From the Guest <ul> <li>Website: <a href="https://marctomarket.com/" target= "_blank" rel="noopener">MarcToMarket.com</a>;</li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/marcmakingsense" target="_blank" rel="noopener">@marcmakingsense</a>.</li> </ul>

<description>&lt;p&gt;Marc Chapman of Bannockburn Global Forex rejoins the podcast to discuss all things US election and the impact a Trump victory would have on economics and financial markets.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;div&gt;&lt;em&gt;This podcast episode was recorded Monday, Oct. 28, 2024 and was made available for premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our &lt;a href="https://contrarianpod.substack.com/subscribe" target= "_blank" rel="noopener"&gt;Substack&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt; &lt;h1&gt;Content Highlights&lt;/h1&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;The impact of a Trump victory next Tuesday is seen as greater as the impact of a Harris victory. What this means for markets and the economy (2:11);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;What if Trump doesn't win? That has become the contrarian take (3:45);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;How it all might affect Mexico, the US' largest trading partner (5:40);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;The US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement is up for review next year. Expect more concessions from Mexico regardless of who's in the White House (and Congress) (12:22);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;However the outlook is not all bad for all Mexican securities... (15:40);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Concerns Trump will try to limit the Federal Reserve's independence (19:38);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Don't overlook the possibility of a recession early in the next president's term (25:44);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Trump victory may lead to more mergers and acquisitions (26:50).&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt; &lt;h1&gt;More From the Guest&lt;/h1&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;Website: &lt;a href="https://marctomarket.com/" target= "_blank" rel="noopener"&gt;MarcToMarket.com&lt;/a&gt;;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;X: &lt;a href="https://x.com/marcmakingsense" target="_blank" rel="noopener"&gt;@marcmakingsense&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt;</description>

Marc Chapman of Bannockburn Global Forex rejoins the podcast to discuss all things US election and the impact a Trump victory would have on economics and financial markets. This podcast episode was recorded Monday, Oct. 28, 2024 and was made available...

Tariffs, Strong US Dollar, Stocks Rally, M&A: What to Expect From Trump-onomics 2.0 (Should It Happen)

Flip Pidot, founder of American Civics Exchange, joins the podcast to discuss trends in polling and prediction markets and why these are increasingly pointing to victory for Donald Trump -- and a Republican sweep of Congress. This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 22, 2024, and made available for premium subscribers that same day -- without ads or announcements. More information on premium membership options is available <a href="https://contrarianpod.substack.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel="noopener">on our Substack page</a>. Content Highlights <ul> <li>What started as a toss-up has quickly moved to resounding victory for Trump (1:38);</li> <li>About $40 million-worth of pro-Trump bets have flooded prediction markets in recent weeks (4:55);</li> <li>Early vote data is also clearly favoring Trump (12:58);</li> <li>Background on the guest (23:05);</li> <li>If the outcome of the election is close, either side is likely to immediately challenge the results in court (34:30);</li> <li>Fortunately, the guest views the likelihood as remote (40:28)</li> </ul> More From the Guest <ul> <li>Website: <a href="https://amciv.com/" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">AmCiv.com</a>;</li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/FlipPidot" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">@FlipPidot</a>;</li> <li>Prediction/polling aggregator: <a href= "https://www.thesupermodel.com/" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">TheSupermodel.com</a>.</li> </ul>

<description>&lt;p&gt;Flip Pidot, founder of American Civics Exchange, joins the podcast to discuss trends in polling and prediction markets and why these are increasingly pointing to victory for Donald Trump -- and a Republican sweep of Congress.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;div&gt;&lt;em&gt;This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 22, 2024, and made available for premium subscribers that same day -- without ads or announcements. More information on premium membership options is available &lt;a href="https://contrarianpod.substack.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel="noopener"&gt;on our Substack page&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt; &lt;h1&gt;Content Highlights&lt;/h1&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;What started as a toss-up has quickly moved to resounding victory for Trump (1:38);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;About $40 million-worth of pro-Trump bets have flooded prediction markets in recent weeks (4:55);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Early vote data is also clearly favoring Trump (12:58);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Background on the guest (23:05);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;If the outcome of the election is close, either side is likely to immediately challenge the results in court (34:30);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Fortunately, the guest views the likelihood as remote (40:28)&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt; &lt;h1&gt;More From the Guest&lt;/h1&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;Website: &lt;a href="https://amciv.com/" target="_blank" rel= "noopener"&gt;AmCiv.com&lt;/a&gt;;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;X: &lt;a href="https://x.com/FlipPidot" target="_blank" rel= "noopener"&gt;@FlipPidot&lt;/a&gt;;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Prediction/polling aggregator: &lt;a href= "https://www.thesupermodel.com/" target="_blank" rel= "noopener"&gt;TheSupermodel.com&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt;</description>

Flip Pidot, founder of American Civics Exchange, joins the podcast to discuss trends in polling and prediction markets and why these are increasingly pointing to victory for Donald Trump -- and a Republican sweep of Congress. This podcast episode was...

Trends Point to Trump Victory, Republican Sweep: Flip Pidot

Tony Greer of TG Macro joins the podcast to discuss his bullish view on industrial commodities, especially oil, AI, the upcoming presidential election, and more. This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the next day. More information on premium subscriptions is available on <a href= "https://contrarianpod.substack.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">our Substack</a>. There are a few points in this episode where adult language is used. Listener discretion is advised. Content Highlights <ul> <li>Why energy commodities, precious and base metals are all set up to rally (1:31);</li> <li>China's stimulus package boosted industrial metals. The bounce should not be limited to the short term... (4:57);</li> <li>There are a number of ways to express the 'long commodities' trade. ETFs may be the simplest... (8:59)</li> <li>The bullish case for uranium (10:37);</li> <li>Don't fade the AI story (14:20);</li> <li>The inevitable cryptocurrency discussion (17:04);</li> <li>Background on the guest (22:30);</li> <li>Listener question: What's the inflection point for a move higher in industrial commodities? (26:10);</li> <li>Election discussion (28:17).</li> </ul> More Information on the Guest <ul> <li>Website: <a href="https://tgmacro.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TgMacro.com</a>;</li> <li>Twitter/X: <a href="https://x.com/TgMacro" target="_blank" rel="noopener">@TgMacro</a>;</li> <li>Substack: <a href="https://substack.com/@tgmacro" target= "_blank" rel="noopener">@TgMacro</a>.</li> </ul>

<description>&lt;p&gt;Tony Greer of TG Macro joins the podcast to discuss his bullish view on industrial commodities, especially oil, AI, the upcoming presidential election, and more.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;div&gt;&lt;em&gt;This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the next day. More information on premium subscriptions is available on &lt;a href= "https://contrarianpod.substack.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel= "noopener"&gt;our Substack&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;There are a few points in this episode where adult language is used. Listener discretion is advised.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Content Highlights&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;Why energy commodities, precious and base metals are all set up to rally (1:31);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;China's stimulus package boosted industrial metals. The bounce should not be limited to the short term... (4:57);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;There are a number of ways to express the 'long commodities' trade. ETFs may be the simplest... (8:59)&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;The bullish case for uranium (10:37);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Don't fade the AI story (14:20);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;The inevitable cryptocurrency discussion (17:04);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Background on the guest (22:30);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Listener question: What's the inflection point for a move higher in industrial commodities? (26:10);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Election discussion (28:17).&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt; &lt;div&gt;&lt;strong&gt;More Information on the Guest&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;Website: &lt;a href="https://tgmacro.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"&gt;TgMacro.com&lt;/a&gt;;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Twitter/X: &lt;a href="https://x.com/TgMacro" target="_blank" rel="noopener"&gt;@TgMacro&lt;/a&gt;;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Substack: &lt;a href="https://substack.com/@tgmacro" target= "_blank" rel="noopener"&gt;@TgMacro&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt;</description>

Tony Greer of TG Macro joins the podcast to discuss his bullish view on industrial commodities, especially oil, AI, the upcoming presidential election, and more. This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, and was made available to premium...

The Bull Case for Industrial Commodities, AI, and More, With Tony Greer

Hear podcast episodes without ads and before regular listeners by <a href="https://contrarianpod.substack.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel="noopener">subscribing to our premium offering</a>. Megan Gorman joins the podcast to discuss her book 'All the Presidents' Money; How the Men Who Governed America Governed Their Money,' in an effort to locate the contrarian investors. There are several, led by Gerald Ford. The guest also discusses the investments of year's presidential and vice presidential candidates. Content Highlights <ul> <li>The most contrarian investor among US presidents? Gerald Ford, the man who pioneered sitting on corporate boards and the presidential speaker circuit (1:24);</li> <li>Perhaps unsurprisingly US presidents were quite conservative with their investments, Ford included... (6:37);</li> <li>Many presidential investments were also contrarian by avoiding (individual) public equities (11:04);</li> <li>Franklin D. Roosevelt was one of several presidents who entered the White House as wealthy individuals -- and blew some of it by failing to perform basic due diligence (15:51);</li> <li>Another oft-overlooked president, Calvin Coolidge, supplies a classic example of mis-timing the market... (21:11);</li> <li>What we know about the investments of this year's candidates for president and vice president (25:52);</li> <li>Another very unsuccessful investor: Ulysses S. Grant. One of the most successful: George Washington (37:14);</li> <li>Presidents probably don't need to own individual stocks. Vice President Kamala Harris exemplifies this (47:18)</li> </ul> More Information on the Guest <ul> <li>Website: <a href="https://www.allthepresidentsmoney.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AllThePresidentsMoney.com</a>;</li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/megan_e_gorman" target="_blank" rel="noopener">@Megan_E_Gorman</a>.</li> </ul>

<description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Hear podcast episodes without ads and before regular listeners by &lt;a href="https://contrarianpod.substack.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel="noopener"&gt;subscribing to our premium offering&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Megan Gorman joins the podcast to discuss her book 'All the Presidents' Money; How the Men Who Governed America Governed Their Money,' in an effort to locate the contrarian investors. There are several, led by Gerald Ford. The guest also discusses the investments of year's presidential and vice presidential candidates.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;div&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Content Highlights&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;The most contrarian investor among US presidents? Gerald Ford, the man who pioneered sitting on corporate boards and the presidential speaker circuit (1:24);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Perhaps unsurprisingly US presidents were quite conservative with their investments, Ford included... (6:37);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Many presidential investments were also contrarian by avoiding (individual) public equities (11:04);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Franklin D. Roosevelt was one of several presidents who entered the White House as wealthy individuals -- and blew some of it by failing to perform basic due diligence (15:51);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Another oft-overlooked president, Calvin Coolidge, supplies a classic example of mis-timing the market... (21:11);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;What we know about the investments of this year's candidates for president and vice president (25:52);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Another very unsuccessful investor: Ulysses S. Grant. One of the most successful: George Washington (37:14);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Presidents probably don't need to own individual stocks. Vice President Kamala Harris exemplifies this (47:18)&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt; &lt;div&gt;&lt;strong&gt;More Information on the Guest&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;Website: &lt;a href="https://www.allthepresidentsmoney.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"&gt;AllThePresidentsMoney.com&lt;/a&gt;;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;X: &lt;a href="https://x.com/megan_e_gorman" target="_blank" rel="noopener"&gt;@Megan_E_Gorman&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt;</description>

Hear podcast episodes without ads and before regular listeners by . Megan Gorman joins the podcast to discuss her book 'All the Presidents' Money; How the Men Who Governed America Governed Their Money,' in an effort to locate the contrarian investors....

Finding Contrarian Investors Among US Presidents Past and Present

The Contrarian Investor podcast gives voice to those who challenge a prevailing narrative in financial markets. Each episode features an interview with a hedge fund manager, investor, economist or other market participant. The goal is to educate all listeners with an interest in asset allocation and ultimately to provide actionable ideas to the institutional investor community.

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