AJ Giannone, the chief investment officer of Allio Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss why high yield and private credit present compelling opportunities for retail investors — despite the apparently advanced state of the economic cycle. This podcast was recorded on Monday, March 17, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers the very next day. For more information on premium subscriptions, <a href= "https://contrarianpod.substack.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">visit our Substack</a>. Not investment advice! Do your own research, make your own decisions. Content Highlights <ul> <ul> <li> High yield debt: this does not appear to be a good time to invest in this asset class, especially through listed funds. Or is it? (1:18); </li> <li> The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is one way convenient and low-cost way for retail investors to access this asset class (5:05); </li> <li> Another iShares product, iShares BB Rated Corporate Bond ETF (HYBB) is a so-called ‘smart beta’ approach… (7:43); </li> <li> The guest is not particularly concerned about a recession, or at least not the performance of high yield should one come to pass. Even then, the default rate should not increase dramatically (9:51); </li> <li> Private credit is another niche corner of the credit market that has recently been open to retail investors via ETFs VPC and PCMM, among others (12:39); </li> <li> Background on the guest (22:52); </li> <li> Some of the macro signals he watches and what they are telling us right now (28:01); </li> <li> There is still upside in European equities (33:54); </li> <li> What about the US market? (38:19) </li> </ul> </ul> More Information on the Guest <ul> <ul> <li> Website: <a href="https://www.alliocapital.com/" target= "_blank" rel="noopener">AllioCapital.com</a> </li> </ul> </ul>

<description>&lt;p&gt;AJ Giannone, the chief investment officer of Allio Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss why high yield and private credit present compelling opportunities for retail investors — despite the apparently advanced state of the economic cycle.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;This podcast was recorded on Monday, March 17, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers the very next day. For more information on premium subscriptions, &lt;a href= "https://contrarianpod.substack.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel= "noopener"&gt;visit our Substack&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Not investment advice! Do your own research, make your own decisions.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2 class="header-anchor-post"&gt;Content Highlights&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt; &lt;p&gt;High yield debt: this does not appear to be a good time to invest in this asset class, especially through listed funds. Or is it? (1:18);&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt; &lt;p&gt;The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is one way convenient and low-cost way for retail investors to access this asset class (5:05);&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt; &lt;p&gt;Another iShares product, iShares BB Rated Corporate Bond ETF (HYBB) is a so-called ‘smart beta’ approach… (7:43);&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt; &lt;p&gt;The guest is not particularly concerned about a recession, or at least not the performance of high yield should one come to pass. Even then, the default rate should not increase dramatically (9:51);&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt; &lt;p&gt;Private credit is another niche corner of the credit market that has recently been open to retail investors via ETFs VPC and PCMM, among others (12:39);&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt; &lt;p&gt;Background on the guest (22:52);&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt; &lt;p&gt;Some of the macro signals he watches and what they are telling us right now (28:01);&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt; &lt;p&gt;There is still upside in European equities (33:54);&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt; &lt;p&gt;What about the US market? (38:19)&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt; &lt;/ul&gt; &lt;h2 class="header-anchor-post"&gt;More Information on the Guest&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt; &lt;p&gt;Website: &lt;a href="https://www.alliocapital.com/" target= "_blank" rel="noopener"&gt;AllioCapital.com&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt; &lt;/ul&gt;</description>

AJ Giannone, the chief investment officer of Allio Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss why high yield and private credit present compelling opportunities for retail investors — despite the apparently advanced state of the economic...

Opportunities in High Yield, Private Credit and More: AJ Giannone, Allio Capital

Robert Smallbone, aka The Contrarian Capitalist, joins the podcast to discuss his view that recession fears are overblown and a fresh "blow-off top" is coming. This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, March 13, 2025 and made available to premium subscribers less than 24 hours later! More information on premium subscriptions is <a href= "https://contrarianpod.substack.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">available on our Substack</a>. Content Highlights <ul> <li>Bearishness appears to have taken over markets. The S&P 500 just entered a correction. The guest is not buying that narrative (1:16);</li> <li>The uncertainty created by the new US president may be intentional to lower bond yields -- and interest rates (4:15);</li> <li>European and UK stock indexes should have more upside ahead (7:21);</li> <li>Background on the guest (12:46);</li> <li>The view on gold and silver (16:11);</li> <li>Crypto discussion (18:40).</li> </ul> More From the Guest <ul> <li><a href="https://contrariancapitalist.substack.com/" target= "_blank" rel="noopener">Substack</a></li> <li>X: <a href="https://x.com/contrarianrob88" target="_blank" rel="noopener">@ContrarianRob88</a></li> </ul>

<description>&lt;div&gt;Robert Smallbone, aka The Contrarian Capitalist, joins the podcast to discuss his view that recession fears are overblown and a fresh "blow-off top" is coming.&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt; &lt;div&gt;&lt;em&gt;This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, March 13, 2025 and made available to premium subscribers less than 24 hours later! More information on premium subscriptions is &lt;a href= "https://contrarianpod.substack.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel= "noopener"&gt;available on our Substack&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt; &lt;h1&gt;Content Highlights&lt;/h1&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;Bearishness appears to have taken over markets. The S&amp;P 500 just entered a correction. The guest is not buying that narrative (1:16);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;The uncertainty created by the new US president may be intentional to lower bond yields -- and interest rates (4:15);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;European and UK stock indexes should have more upside ahead (7:21);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Background on the guest (12:46);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;The view on gold and silver (16:11);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Crypto discussion (18:40).&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt; &lt;h1&gt;More From the Guest&lt;/h1&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;&lt;a href="https://contrariancapitalist.substack.com/" target= "_blank" rel="noopener"&gt;Substack&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;X: &lt;a href="https://x.com/contrarianrob88" target="_blank" rel="noopener"&gt;@ContrarianRob88&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt;</description>

Robert Smallbone, aka The Contrarian Capitalist, joins the podcast to discuss his view that recession fears are overblown and a fresh "blow-off top" is coming.  This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, March 13, 2025 and made available to...

Recession Fears Are Overblown: Robert Smallwood, The Contrarian Catalyst

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss why the economy can continue to expand even with the onset of Trump tariffs. This podcast episode was recorded on March 6, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers exclusively the same day it was recorded. Information on premium membership is <a href= "https://contrarianpod.substack.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">avaliable here</a>. Content Highlights <ul> <li>The "Trump tariff barrage" will lead to slower growth, lower economic activity, and higher inflation -- in the short term (1:51);</li> <li>Over the medium term however, tariffs should not trigger a recession, nor will they have a lasting impact on prices aka inflation (6:24);</li> <li>Labor markets: Immigration has ground to a halt, but people are aging out of the workforce. Government layoffs notwithstanding, that should result in a wash (10:23);</li> <li>Ultimately the economic cycle is half way through its growth stage, which should run for another four years. However this won't be great for growth stocks like the 'magnificent 7'... (15:14);</li> <li>Fixed income is suddenly an attractive asset class and international stocks have tailwinds as well... (18:03);</li> <li>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker is suddenly predicting a negative print for first-quarter GDP. There are logical reasons for this (24:23).</li> </ul> More on the Guest <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Website: <a href= "https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/scott-colbert" target= "_blank" rel="noopener">CommerceTrustCompany.com</a>;</li> <li>Published <a href= "https://www.commercefinancialadvisors.com/insight" target="_blank" rel="noopener">insights</a> from Commerce Trust Co.</li> </ul>

<description>&lt;div&gt;Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss why the economy can continue to expand even with the onset of Trump tariffs.&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt; &lt;em&gt;This podcast episode was recorded on March 6, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers exclusively the same day it was recorded. Information on premium membership is &lt;a href= "https://contrarianpod.substack.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel= "noopener"&gt;avaliable here&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt; &lt;h1&gt;&lt;span style="font-size: 18pt;"&gt;Content Highlights&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/h1&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;The "Trump tariff barrage" will lead to slower growth, lower economic activity, and higher inflation -- in the short term (1:51);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Over the medium term however, tariffs should not trigger a recession, nor will they have a lasting impact on prices aka inflation (6:24);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Labor markets: Immigration has ground to a halt, but people are aging out of the workforce. Government layoffs notwithstanding, that should result in a wash (10:23);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Ultimately the economic cycle is half way through its growth stage, which should run for another four years. However this won't be great for growth stocks like the 'magnificent 7'... (15:14);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Fixed income is suddenly an attractive asset class and international stocks have tailwinds as well... (18:03);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker is suddenly predicting a negative print for first-quarter GDP. There are logical reasons for this (24:23).&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt; &lt;h2 class="wp-block-heading"&gt;More on the Guest&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;ul class="wp-block-list"&gt; &lt;li&gt;Website: &lt;a href= "https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/scott-colbert" target= "_blank" rel="noopener"&gt;CommerceTrustCompany.com&lt;/a&gt;;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Published &lt;a href= "https://www.commercefinancialadvisors.com/insight" target="_blank" rel="noopener"&gt;insights&lt;/a&gt; from Commerce Trust Co.&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt;</description>

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss why the economy can continue to expand even with the onset of Trump tariffs.  This podcast episode was recorded on March 6, 2025 and was made available to...

Economic Cycle Still Has Room to Run, Even With Tariffs: Scott Colbert, Commerce Trust

Phil Pecsok of Anacapa Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss the return of pessimism to the market and the economic and market repercussions of Trump's various policies. This podcast episode was recorded in two segments, the <a href= "https://contrarianpod.substack.com/p/pessimisms-return-nvidia-earnings" target="_blank" rel="noopener">second</a> on Feb. 24 with the express purpose of discussing with the then-nascent sell-off and Nvidia (NVDA) earnings. More information is <a href= "https://contrarianpod.substack.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">available here</a>. This podcast deviates from the usual format by including the guest's first-hand account of the LA wildfires. This admittedly has only limited relation to investing, but was kept mostly intact for human interest reasons. Listeners can skip past these segments, identified below. Content Highlights <ul> <li>Walmart (WMT) earnings ushered in a fresh round of selling in stocks that has yet to reverse (1:05)</li> <li>The concerns raised by Walmart earnings are legitimate, but stocks should still rise this year (5:02);</li> <li>The guest, a resident of the Pacific Palisades, recounts his harrowing experience with the LA fires (11:25);</li> <li>Economic repercussions of the fires (14:32);</li> <li>Trump will ultimately be good for the economy and for markets. Fade any Trump-generated market panic (27:51);</li> <li>Why you shouldn't buy defense contractor stocks yet (37:18);</li> <li>The outlook for inflation is not great. This will likely keep the Fed from cutting rates (41:52).</li> </ul> For more on the guest and his firm, visit the website <a href="https://www.anacapaadvisors.com/" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">AnacapaAdvisors.com</a>.

<description>&lt;p&gt;Phil Pecsok of Anacapa Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss the return of pessimism to the market and the economic and market repercussions of Trump's various policies.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This podcast episode was recorded in two segments, the &lt;a href= "https://contrarianpod.substack.com/p/pessimisms-return-nvidia-earnings" target="_blank" rel="noopener"&gt;second&lt;/a&gt; on Feb. 24 with the express purpose of discussing with the then-nascent sell-off and Nvidia (NVDA) earnings. More information is &lt;a href= "https://contrarianpod.substack.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel= "noopener"&gt;available here&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;div&gt;&lt;em&gt;This podcast deviates from the usual format by including the guest's first-hand account of the LA wildfires. This admittedly has only limited relation to investing, but was kept mostly intact for human interest reasons. Listeners can skip past these segments, identified below.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt; &lt;strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt; Content Highlights&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;Walmart (WMT) earnings ushered in a fresh round of selling in stocks that has yet to reverse (1:05)&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;The concerns raised by Walmart earnings are legitimate, but stocks should still rise this year (5:02);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;The guest, a resident of the Pacific Palisades, recounts his harrowing experience with the LA fires (11:25);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Economic repercussions of the fires (14:32);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Trump will ultimately be good for the economy and for markets. Fade any Trump-generated market panic (27:51);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Why you shouldn't buy defense contractor stocks yet (37:18);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;The outlook for inflation is not great. This will likely keep the Fed from cutting rates (41:52).&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt; &lt;div&gt;&lt;em&gt;For more on the guest and his firm, visit the website &lt;/em&gt;&lt;a href="https://www.anacapaadvisors.com/" target="_blank" rel= "noopener"&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;AnacapaAdvisors.com&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;em&gt;.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description>

Phil Pecsok of Anacapa Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss the return of pessimism to the market and the economic and market repercussions of Trump's various policies. This podcast episode was recorded in two segments, the  on Feb. 24 with the...

Pessimism's Return, Trump 2.0 Opportunities, With Phil Pecsok, Anacapa Advisors

Dan Rasmussen of Verdad Capital joins the podcast to discuss the dwindling prospects for AI stocks and why investors might want to look outside the US for better returns.   This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on Monday, Feb. 17, 2025 without ads or announcements. For more information about premium membership options, <a href= "https://contrarianpod.substack.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">visit our Substack</a>. Content Highlights <ul> <li>AI stocks have been on an incredible run, massively growing profits without much capital spending. That equation has changed... (1:51);</li> <li>Tech companies are going from software businesses to manufacturing concerns -- capital- and energy-intensive businesses that simply can't produce the same growth as previous (6:03);</li> <li>DeepSeek claims to be able to reduce the cost of AI applications. How does that factor in to the equation? (9:09);</li> <li>So if the 'Mag 7' and AI stocks won't drive the market higher, then what will? Where will growth come from? (12:16);</li> <li>One place to start is to look for global diversification. Outside the US, stocks are meaningful cheaper... (15:24);</li> <li>The guest's book 'The Humble Investor' (21:37);</li> <li>What can supply 'edge' in investing? There are some things. Legal ones... (27:10);</li> <li>Background on the guest (33:02);</li> <li>The guest is a historian by trade. What historical period is perhaps most comparable to the present day? Unfortunately, it looks an awful lot like 'peak bubble'... (36:08);</li> </ul> More Information on the Guest <ul> <li>Website: <a href="https://verdadcap.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">VerdadCap.com</a>;</li> <li>Twitter/X: <a href="https://x.com/verdadcap" target= "_blank" rel="noopener">@VerdadCap</a>.</li> </ul>

<description>&lt;div class="trix-content"&gt; &lt;div&gt;Dan Rasmussen of Verdad Capital joins the podcast to discuss the dwindling prospects for AI stocks and why investors might want to look outside the US for better returns.&lt;/div&gt; &lt;div&gt; &lt;/div&gt; &lt;div&gt;&lt;em&gt;This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on Monday, Feb. 17, 2025 without ads or announcements. For more information about premium membership options, &lt;a href= "https://contrarianpod.substack.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel= "noopener"&gt;visit our Substack&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt; &lt;h1&gt;Content Highlights&lt;/h1&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;AI stocks have been on an incredible run, massively growing profits without much capital spending. That equation has changed... (1:51);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Tech companies are going from software businesses to manufacturing concerns -- capital- and energy-intensive businesses that simply can't produce the same growth as previous (6:03);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;DeepSeek claims to be able to reduce the cost of AI applications. How does that factor in to the equation? (9:09);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;So if the 'Mag 7' and AI stocks won't drive the market higher, then what will? Where will growth come from? (12:16);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;One place to start is to look for global diversification. Outside the US, stocks are meaningful cheaper... (15:24);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;The guest's book 'The Humble Investor' (21:37);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;What can supply 'edge' in investing? There are some things. Legal ones... (27:10);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Background on the guest (33:02);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;The guest is a historian by trade. What historical period is perhaps most comparable to the present day? Unfortunately, it looks an awful lot like 'peak bubble'... (36:08);&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt; &lt;h1&gt;More Information on the Guest&lt;/h1&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;Website: &lt;a href="https://verdadcap.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"&gt;VerdadCap.com&lt;/a&gt;;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;Twitter/X: &lt;a href="https://x.com/verdadcap" target= "_blank" rel="noopener"&gt;@VerdadCap&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt; &lt;/div&gt;</description>

Dan Rasmussen of Verdad Capital joins the podcast to discuss the dwindling prospects for AI stocks and why investors might want to look outside the US for better returns.   This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on Monday, Feb....

AI Stocks Can't Lead the Market Much Longer. Invest Internationally Instead: Dan Rasmussen, Verdad Capital

The Contrarian Investor podcast gives voice to those who challenge a prevailing narrative in financial markets. Each episode features an interview with a hedge fund manager, investor, economist or other market participant. The goal is to educate all listeners with an interest in asset allocation and ultimately to provide actionable ideas to the institutional investor community.

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