Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have had a big year in 2025, but what are they really? Securities? Derivatives? Sportsbooks? They may be all of the above. Listen to my breakdown on how these markets have evolved over time, and what led to their current rise today. We then dive into the opportunities, risks, and the regulatory challenges that may shape their future. CHAPTERS 02:54 The Origin of Prediction Markets 06:43 Polymarket, Kalshi, and Modern Prediction Markets 09:16 Regulation and What’s Next 09:31 Bucket A: Policy, Finance, and Economics 13:36 Bucket B: Sports, Entertainment, and Pop Culture SPONSORS Chartmetric: Listen in for our Stat of the Week Too Lost: empowering artists with tools to manage, distribute, and grow their music independently. TRAPITAL Where technology shapes culture. New episodes and memos every week. Sign up here for free.

Trapital

Dan Runcie

Polymarket and Kalshi: Financial Tools or Casinos?

DEC 12, 202525 MIN
Trapital

Polymarket and Kalshi: Financial Tools or Casinos?

DEC 12, 202525 MIN

Description

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have had a big year in 2025, but what are they really? Securities? Derivatives? Sportsbooks? They may be all of the above.

Listen to my breakdown on how these markets have evolved over time, and what led to their current rise today. We then dive into the opportunities, risks, and the regulatory challenges that may shape their future.



CHAPTERS

02:54 The Origin of Prediction Markets

06:43 Polymarket, Kalshi, and Modern Prediction Markets

09:16 Regulation and What’s Next

09:31 Bucket A: Policy, Finance, and Economics

13:36 Bucket B: Sports, Entertainment, and Pop Culture



SPONSORS

Chartmetric: Listen in for our Stat of the Week

Too Lost: empowering artists with tools to manage, distribute, and grow their music independently.



TRAPITAL

Where technology shapes culture. New episodes and memos every week. Sign up here for free.