#152 A Bayesian decision theory workflow, with Daniel Saunders

FEB 26, 202679 MIN
Learning Bayesian Statistics

#152 A Bayesian decision theory workflow, with Daniel Saunders

FEB 26, 202679 MIN

Description

<p>• Support &amp; <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.patreon.com/c/learnbayesstats" target="_blank"><b>get perks</b></a>!</p><p>• Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs! Get in touch at <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="mailto:[email protected]" target="_blank"><b>[email protected]</b></a></p><p>• <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/503302" target="_blank"><b>Intro to Bayes</b></a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/1011122" target="_blank"><b>Advanced Regression</b></a> courses (first 2 lessons free)</p><p></p><p>Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://bababrinkman.com/" target="_blank"><b>his awesome work </b></a>!</p><h4>Chapters:</h4><p>00:00 The Importance of Decision-Making in Data Science</p><p>06:41 From Philosophy to Bayesian Statistics</p><p>14:57 The Role of Soft Skills in Data Science</p><p>18:19 Understanding Decision Theory Workflows</p><p>22:43 Shifting Focus from Accuracy to Business Value</p><p>26:23 Leveraging PyTensor for Optimization</p><p>34:27 Applying Optimal Decision-Making in Industry</p><p>40:06 Understanding Utility Functions in Regulation</p><p>41:35 Introduction to Obeisance Decision Theory Workflow</p><p>42:33 Exploring Price Elasticity and Demand</p><p>45:54 Optimizing Profit through Bayesian Models</p><p>51:12 Risk Aversion and Utility Functions</p><p>57:18 Advanced Risk Management Techniques</p><p>01:01:08 Practical Applications of Bayesian Decision-Making</p><p>01:06:54 Future Directions in Bayesian Inference</p><p>01:10:16 The Quest for Better Inference Algorithms</p><p>01:15:01 Dinner with a Polymath: Herbert Simon</p><p></p><p><b>Thank you to my </b><a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://learnbayesstats.com/#patrons" target="_blank"><b>Patrons </b></a><b>for making this episode possible!</b></p><h4><b>Links from the show:</b></h4><ul><li>Come meet Alex at the Field of Play Conference in Manchester, UK, March 27, 2026! <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.fieldofplay.co.uk/" target="_blank">https://www.fieldofplay.co.uk/</a></li><li><a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://daniel-saunders-phil.github.io/imagination_machine/posts/a-bayesian-decision-theory-workflow/" target="_blank">A Bayesian decision theory workflow</a></li><li>Daniel's <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://daniel-saunders-phil.github.io/imagination_machine/" target="_blank">website, </a><a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/dr-daniel-saunders-97239b174/" target="_blank">LinkedIn and</a> <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://github.com/daniel-saunders-phil" target="_blank">GitHub</a></li><li>LBS #124 <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/124-state-space-models-structural-time-series-with-jesse-grabowski" target="_blank">State Space Models &amp; Structural Time Series, with Jesse Grabowski</a></li><li>LBS #123 <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/123-bart-the-future-of-bayesian-tools-with-osvaldo-martin" target="_blank">BART &amp; The Future of Bayesian Tools, with Osvaldo Martin</a></li><li>LBS #74 <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/74-optimizing-nuts-and-developing-the-zerosumnormal-distribution-with-adrian-seyboldt" target="_blank">Optimizing NUTS and Developing the ZeroSumNormal Distribution, with Adrian Seyboldt</a></li><li>LBS #76 <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/76-the-past-present-future-of-stan-with-bob-carpenter" target="_blank">The Past, Present &amp; Future of Stan, with Bob Carpenter</a></li></ul>