Joe&apos;s Premium Subscription: <a href='https://standardgrain.com/'>www.standardgrain.com</a> Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — <a href='https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095'>Apple Podcasts </a><a href='https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG'>Spotify</a> <a href='https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf'>TikTok</a> <a href='https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos'>YouTube</a>Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 China Soybean Buying—What’s Really Going On? Bloomberg reported overnight that China has quietly bought at least half of its 12mmt US soybean commitment. Anonymous sources say Sinograin purchased roughly 2mmt last week, with buying continuing this week. Official USDA data still shows less than 4mmt of confirmed soybean sales to China so far this marketing year. Flash sales to China over the last 10 days total just 1.2mmt. Meanwhile, roughly 3mmt of US soybeans have been sold to unknown destinations, with the market widely believing China accounts for about half of that volume. 📊 USDA Flash Sales Recap USDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday: Soybeans sold to China for 2025/26 delivery Additional soybeans sold to unknown destinations Corn sold to Mexico A cancellation of white wheat to China, originally reported in November This mix of sales and cancellations continues to add noise to the market. 🌾 Grain Futures – Wheat Weighs on the Complex Chicago wheat futures fell for a fourth straight session, hitting their lowest level in nearly two months as global supplies remain ample and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continue. Despite the China buying headlines, soybean futures also declined for a fourth straight day. Corn was the lone bright spot, posting modest gains, though wheat weakness limited upside. ⚠️ Russia / Ukraine – Export Disruptions Escalate Russia has intensified attacks on Black Sea ports and energy infrastructure in southern Ukraine, forcing temporary shutdowns at several grain terminals. Ukraine has shipped just 36% of its contracted wheat exports for the month so far. Rail infrastructure feeding ports has also been targeted, contributing to a sharp year-over-year decline in wheat exports this marketing year. 💰 Fund Positioning – CFTC Catch-Up Report The CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report. Large money managers were net buyers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat. The soybean fund long remains one of the largest on record, keeping downside risk elevated if sentiment shifts. The CFTC expects to be fully current by the end of December. ⛽ Ethanol – New All-Time Production High US ethanol production surged to a new record, while ethanol stocks declined. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins have strengthened, now running modestly positive across much of the Corn Belt. 📌 Bottom Line China appears to be buying more US soybeans than official data suggests—yet futures keep falling. We’ll explain why the market doesn’t care (yet) and what actually needs to change to stabilize prices.

<description>&lt;p&gt;Joe&amp;apos;s Premium Subscription: &lt;a href='https://standardgrain.com/'&gt;www.standardgrain.com&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href='https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095'&gt;Apple Podcasts&lt;br/&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href='https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG'&gt;Spotify&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href='https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf'&gt;TikTok&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href='https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos'&gt;YouTube&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;🌱 China Soybean Buying—What’s Really Going On?&lt;br/&gt;Bloomberg reported overnight that China has quietly bought at least half of its 12mmt US soybean commitment. Anonymous sources say Sinograin purchased roughly 2mmt last week, with buying continuing this week.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Official USDA data still shows less than 4mmt of confirmed soybean sales to China so far this marketing year. Flash sales to China over the last 10 days total just 1.2mmt. Meanwhile, roughly 3mmt of US soybeans have been sold to unknown destinations, with the market widely believing China accounts for about half of that volume.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📊 USDA Flash Sales Recap&lt;br/&gt;USDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday:&lt;br/&gt;Soybeans sold to China for 2025/26 delivery&lt;br/&gt;Additional soybeans sold to unknown destinations&lt;br/&gt;Corn sold to Mexico&lt;br/&gt;A cancellation of white wheat to China, originally reported in November&lt;br/&gt;This mix of sales and cancellations continues to add noise to the market.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🌾 Grain Futures – Wheat Weighs on the Complex&lt;br/&gt;Chicago wheat futures fell for a fourth straight session, hitting their lowest level in nearly two months as global supplies remain ample and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continue.&lt;br/&gt;Despite the China buying headlines, soybean futures also declined for a fourth straight day. Corn was the lone bright spot, posting modest gains, though wheat weakness limited upside.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;⚠️ Russia / Ukraine – Export Disruptions Escalate&lt;br/&gt;Russia has intensified attacks on Black Sea ports and energy infrastructure in southern Ukraine, forcing temporary shutdowns at several grain terminals.&lt;br/&gt;Ukraine has shipped just 36% of its contracted wheat exports for the month so far. Rail infrastructure feeding ports has also been targeted, contributing to a sharp year-over-year decline in wheat exports this marketing year.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;💰 Fund Positioning – CFTC Catch-Up Report&lt;br/&gt;The CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report. Large money managers were net buyers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat.&lt;br/&gt;The soybean fund long remains one of the largest on record, keeping downside risk elevated if sentiment shifts. The CFTC expects to be fully current by the end of December.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;⛽ Ethanol – New All-Time Production High&lt;br/&gt;US ethanol production surged to a new record, while ethanol stocks declined. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins have strengthened, now running modestly positive across much of the Corn Belt.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📌 Bottom Line&lt;br/&gt;China appears to be buying more US soybeans than official data suggests—yet futures keep falling. We’ll explain why the market doesn’t care (yet) and what actually needs to change to stabilize prices.&lt;/p&gt;</description>

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com  Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —  Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 China Soybean Buying—What’s Really Going On? Bloomberg reported overnight that China has quietly bought at least half of its 12mmt US soybean commitment. Anonymous sources say Sinograin purchased roughly 2mmt last week, with buying continuing this week.  Official USDA data still sho...

China has Hit Half the Soybean Target... So Why Are Prices Falling?

Joe&apos;s Premium Subscription: <a href='https://standardgrain.com/'>www.standardgrain.com</a> Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — <a href='https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095'>Apple Podcasts </a><a href='https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG'>Spotify</a> <a href='https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf'>TikTok</a> <a href='https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos'>YouTube</a>Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🏥 ACA Health Insurance &amp; Farmers Enhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act are scheduled to expire in 2026, which could lead to huge increases in health insurance premiums. Farmers, ranchers, and other self-employed individuals are especially exposed since they don’t have employer-sponsored coverage. Some families could see premiums jump by more than $20,000 per year. Affordable ACA plans have played a key role in supporting rural economies. Without them, more families may be forced into off-farm work, and rural hospitals could feel added financial strain. As an alternative, 13 state Farm Bureaus now offer non-ACA-compliant health plans that are significantly cheaper. This issue impacts nearly every business owner and self-employed worker—and could weigh on the broader economy as disposable income shrinks. 🌱 Grain Markets Soybean futures continued lower on Tuesday. The Jan26 contract fell 9 cents, settling near $10.63, as traders unwound long positions amid weak US export demand and expectations for a massive Brazilian crop. Corn and wheat also finished lower. Despite solid export demand, Mar26 corn slipped about 3 cents to close near $4.37. Chicago wheat was pressured by ample global supplies, with March futures down roughly 11 cents near $5.10. 🇨🇳 China &amp; Soybeans China’s state stockpiler Sinograin auctioned roughly 323,000mt of imported soybeans, about 63% of the total offered, to make room for incoming US supplies. Another auction later this week will offer 550,000mt, and traders expect around 4mmt to be sold in this auction cycle. The move comes despite ample domestic inventories, as Beijing has pledged to increase purchases of US soybeans. 👷 US Labor Market The labor market remains sluggish. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, following a sharp 105,000 decline in October, the largest drop since 2020. Much of the weakness was tied to falling federal employment during the shutdown. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, reflecting softer hiring and higher labor force participation. Part-time employment for economic reasons and long-term unemployment also increased. 🛢️ Oil &amp; Energy Oil prices tumbled Tuesday. WTI crude fell 2.7% to $55.27, the lowest level since February 2021. The drop was driven by ample global supplies, rising OPEC+ production, strong US output, and growing optimism around a potential Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. Lower crude prices have pushed US gasoline prices below $3 per gallon, the cheapest level in nearly five years.

<description>&lt;p&gt;Joe&amp;apos;s Premium Subscription: &lt;a href='https://standardgrain.com/'&gt;www.standardgrain.com&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href='https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095'&gt;Apple Podcasts&lt;br/&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href='https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG'&gt;Spotify&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href='https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf'&gt;TikTok&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href='https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos'&gt;YouTube&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;🏥 ACA Health Insurance &amp;amp; Farmers&lt;br/&gt;Enhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act are scheduled to expire in 2026, which could lead to huge increases in health insurance premiums.&lt;br/&gt;Farmers, ranchers, and other self-employed individuals are especially exposed since they don’t have employer-sponsored coverage.&lt;br/&gt;Some families could see premiums jump by more than $20,000 per year. Affordable ACA plans have played a key role in supporting rural economies. Without them, more families may be forced into off-farm work, and rural hospitals could feel added financial strain.&lt;br/&gt;As an alternative, 13 state Farm Bureaus now offer non-ACA-compliant health plans that are significantly cheaper. This issue impacts nearly every business owner and self-employed worker—and could weigh on the broader economy as disposable income shrinks.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🌱 Grain Markets&lt;br/&gt;Soybean futures continued lower on Tuesday. The Jan26 contract fell 9 cents, settling near $10.63, as traders unwound long positions amid weak US export demand and expectations for a massive Brazilian crop.&lt;br/&gt;Corn and wheat also finished lower. Despite solid export demand, Mar26 corn slipped about 3 cents to close near $4.37.&lt;br/&gt;Chicago wheat was pressured by ample global supplies, with March futures down roughly 11 cents near $5.10.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🇨🇳 China &amp;amp; Soybeans&lt;br/&gt;China’s state stockpiler Sinograin auctioned roughly 323,000mt of imported soybeans, about 63% of the total offered, to make room for incoming US supplies.&lt;br/&gt;Another auction later this week will offer 550,000mt, and traders expect around 4mmt to be sold in this auction cycle.&lt;br/&gt;The move comes despite ample domestic inventories, as Beijing has pledged to increase purchases of US soybeans.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;👷 US Labor Market&lt;br/&gt;The labor market remains sluggish. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, following a sharp 105,000 decline in October, the largest drop since 2020.&lt;br/&gt;Much of the weakness was tied to falling federal employment during the shutdown.&lt;br/&gt;The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, reflecting softer hiring and higher labor force participation.&lt;br/&gt;Part-time employment for economic reasons and long-term unemployment also increased.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🛢️ Oil &amp;amp; Energy&lt;br/&gt;Oil prices tumbled Tuesday. WTI crude fell 2.7% to $55.27, the lowest level since February 2021.&lt;br/&gt;The drop was driven by ample global supplies, rising OPEC+ production, strong US output, and growing optimism around a potential Russia-Ukraine peace agreement.&lt;br/&gt;Lower crude prices have pushed US gasoline prices below $3 per gallon, the cheapest level in nearly five years.&lt;/p&gt;</description>

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com  Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —  Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🏥 ACA Health Insurance &amp; Farmers Enhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act are scheduled to expire in 2026, which could lead to huge increases in health insurance premiums. Farmers, ranchers, and other self-employed individuals are especially exposed since they do...

Soybeans Spiral, Healthcare Premiums to Wreck Farmer Finances

Joe&apos;s Premium Subscription: <a href='https://standardgrain.com/'>www.standardgrain.com</a> Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — <a href='https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095'>Apple Podcasts </a><a href='https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG'>Spotify</a> <a href='https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf'>TikTok</a> <a href='https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos'>YouTube</a>Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 NOPA Soybean Crush NOPA released its November crush report on Monday US soybean crush hit an all-time November record Crush was lower than October’s record, but well above last year End-of-month soybean oil stocks jumped sharply, reaching a 7-month high Oil stocks also came in above trade expectations 📉 Soybean Futures Pressure Soybean futures extended losses on Monday The Jan26 contract settled near $10.72 Market pressure continues from: Slow Chinese buying Expectations of a massive Brazilian crop hitting export channels A near-record speculative long position that leaves the market vulnerable to liquidation 🚢 Export Inspections Update US soybean inspections disappointed last week Shipments were well below last year’s pace About one-quarter of soybeans were headed to China Corn and wheat inspections were near the high end of expectations Northern Plains soybean basis remains weak due to limited PNW movement 🧪 Fertilizer Market News The US lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash over the weekend US fertilizer stocks fell sharply on Monday in response Belarus still faces logistical hurdles, limiting near-term impact Belarus accounts for only a small share of US potash supply Trump’s threat of tariffs on Canadian fertilizer remains the much bigger market risk 📦 USDA Flash Sales USDA reported additional flash sales on Monday Soybeans sold to China for next marketing year delivery Corn sold to unknown destinations 📑 Export Sales Report (Catch-Up Edition) USDA released another outdated export sales report Soybean sales were strong, led almost entirely by China Corn sales slipped from the prior week Wheat sales landed near the low end of expectations

<description>&lt;p&gt;Joe&amp;apos;s Premium Subscription: &lt;a href='https://standardgrain.com/'&gt;www.standardgrain.com&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href='https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095'&gt;Apple Podcasts&lt;br/&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href='https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG'&gt;Spotify&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href='https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf'&gt;TikTok&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href='https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos'&gt;YouTube&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;🌱 NOPA Soybean Crush&lt;br/&gt;NOPA released its November crush report on Monday&lt;br/&gt;US soybean crush hit an all-time November record&lt;br/&gt;Crush was lower than October’s record, but well above last year&lt;br/&gt;End-of-month soybean oil stocks jumped sharply, reaching a 7-month high&lt;br/&gt;Oil stocks also came in above trade expectations&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📉 Soybean Futures Pressure&lt;br/&gt;Soybean futures extended losses on Monday&lt;br/&gt;The Jan26 contract settled near $10.72&lt;br/&gt;Market pressure continues from:&lt;br/&gt;Slow Chinese buying&lt;br/&gt;Expectations of a massive Brazilian crop hitting export channels&lt;br/&gt;A near-record speculative long position that leaves the market vulnerable to liquidation&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🚢 Export Inspections Update&lt;br/&gt;US soybean inspections disappointed last week&lt;br/&gt;Shipments were well below last year’s pace&lt;br/&gt;About one-quarter of soybeans were headed to China&lt;br/&gt;Corn and wheat inspections were near the high end of expectations&lt;br/&gt;Northern Plains soybean basis remains weak due to limited PNW movement&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🧪 Fertilizer Market News&lt;br/&gt;The US lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash over the weekend&lt;br/&gt;US fertilizer stocks fell sharply on Monday in response&lt;br/&gt;Belarus still faces logistical hurdles, limiting near-term impact&lt;br/&gt;Belarus accounts for only a small share of US potash supply&lt;br/&gt;Trump’s threat of tariffs on Canadian fertilizer remains the much bigger market risk&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📦 USDA Flash Sales&lt;br/&gt;USDA reported additional flash sales on Monday&lt;br/&gt;Soybeans sold to China for next marketing year delivery&lt;br/&gt;Corn sold to unknown destinations&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📑 Export Sales Report (Catch-Up Edition)&lt;br/&gt;USDA released another outdated export sales report&lt;br/&gt;Soybean sales were strong, led almost entirely by China&lt;br/&gt;Corn sales slipped from the prior week&lt;br/&gt;Wheat sales landed near the low end of expectations&lt;/p&gt;</description>

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com  Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —  Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 NOPA Soybean Crush NOPA released its November crush report on Monday US soybean crush hit an all-time November record Crush was lower than October’s record, but well above last year End-of-month soybean oil stocks jumped sharply, reaching a 7-month high Oil stocks also came in above...

Soybean Demand: STRONG Crush and TERRIBLE Exports

Joe&apos;s Premium Subscription: <a href='https://standardgrain.com/'>www.standardgrain.com</a> Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — <a href='https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095'>Apple Podcasts </a><a href='https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG'>Spotify</a> <a href='https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf'>TikTok</a> <a href='https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos'>YouTube</a>Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Soybean, Corn &amp; Wheat Markets Soybean futures plunged on Friday, with the Jan ’26 contract falling nearly 17 cents to around $10.77 — the lowest level since late October. The pressure came from slowing U.S. export demand as the seasonal export window closes and growing expectations for a massive Brazilian crop. Brazilian soybeans are expected to hit the export market by mid- to late January and will likely be priced at a discount to U.S. supplies, adding further downside risk. Corn and wheat futures also finished the day lower. 📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) The CFTC released another outdated, catch-up COT report. As of November 18, large money managers were net buyers across the grain complex. Funds were heavily long soybeans, sitting just shy of an all-time record. Notably, this was the exact time the soybean market peaked. Private estimates during the government shutdown significantly underestimated fund length, making this information largely useless from a grain marketing standpoint in real time.  🚢 USDA Flash Sales &amp; China Watch USDA reported multiple flash sales on Friday, including soybeans sold to China, soybean meal sold to Mexico, and corn sold to unknown destinations. Officially, China has purchased just over 3 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the current marketing year. However, trade chatter suggests actual purchases could be much larger due to sales listed as “unknown” and potential non-reportable purchases during the shutdown. Some analysts estimate total Chinese buying could be materially higher.  🏗️ Hedge Funds Move Into Physical Commodities Hedge funds and trading firms are increasingly investing directly in physical commodities like pipelines, storage, power generation, and energy infrastructure. The goal is to gain better data, market insight, and diversification during volatile years. While this can create new profit opportunities, it also puts hedge funds in direct competition with major global trading houses.  ⛽ 2026 Biofuel Quotas Delayed The EPA is expected to delay finalizing 2026 biofuel quotas until next year. The agency is still reviewing public comments and plans additional stakeholder meetings. The decision could become part of a broader negotiation between oil and agricultural interests. While higher biofuel mandates could help farmers, expectations remain muted, with year-round E15 already largely conceded. A mandated E15 requirement would be the only real surprise.

<description>&lt;p&gt;Joe&amp;apos;s Premium Subscription: &lt;a href='https://standardgrain.com/'&gt;www.standardgrain.com&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href='https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095'&gt;Apple Podcasts&lt;br/&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href='https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG'&gt;Spotify&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href='https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf'&gt;TikTok&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href='https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos'&gt;YouTube&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;🌱 Soybean, Corn &amp;amp; Wheat Markets&lt;br/&gt;Soybean futures plunged on Friday, with the Jan ’26 contract falling nearly 17 cents to around $10.77 — the lowest level since late October. The pressure came from slowing U.S. export demand as the seasonal export window closes and growing expectations for a massive Brazilian crop. Brazilian soybeans are expected to hit the export market by mid- to late January and will likely be priced at a discount to U.S. supplies, adding further downside risk. Corn and wheat futures also finished the day lower.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT)&lt;br/&gt;The CFTC released another outdated, catch-up COT report. As of November 18, large money managers were net buyers across the grain complex. Funds were heavily long soybeans, sitting just shy of an all-time record. Notably, this was the exact time the soybean market peaked. Private estimates during the government shutdown significantly underestimated fund length, making this information largely useless from a grain marketing standpoint in real time. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🚢 USDA Flash Sales &amp;amp; China Watch&lt;br/&gt;USDA reported multiple flash sales on Friday, including soybeans sold to China, soybean meal sold to Mexico, and corn sold to unknown destinations. Officially, China has purchased just over 3 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the current marketing year. However, trade chatter suggests actual purchases could be much larger due to sales listed as “unknown” and potential non-reportable purchases during the shutdown. Some analysts estimate total Chinese buying could be materially higher. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🏗️ Hedge Funds Move Into Physical Commodities&lt;br/&gt;Hedge funds and trading firms are increasingly investing directly in physical commodities like pipelines, storage, power generation, and energy infrastructure. The goal is to gain better data, market insight, and diversification during volatile years. While this can create new profit opportunities, it also puts hedge funds in direct competition with major global trading houses. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;⛽ 2026 Biofuel Quotas Delayed&lt;br/&gt;The EPA is expected to delay finalizing 2026 biofuel quotas until next year. The agency is still reviewing public comments and plans additional stakeholder meetings. The decision could become part of a broader negotiation between oil and agricultural interests. While higher biofuel mandates could help farmers, expectations remain muted, with year-round E15 already largely conceded. A mandated E15 requirement would be the only real surprise. &lt;/p&gt;</description>

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com  Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —  Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Soybean, Corn &amp; Wheat Markets Soybean futures plunged on Friday, with the Jan ’26 contract falling nearly 17 cents to around $10.77 — the lowest level since late October. The pressure came from slowing U.S. export demand as the seasonal export window closes and growing expectati...

Fund Traders LOVED Soybeans.... a Month Ago

Joe&apos;s Premium Subscription: <a href='https://standardgrain.com/'>www.standardgrain.com</a> Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — <a href='https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095'>Apple Podcasts </a><a href='https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG'>Spotify</a> <a href='https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf'>TikTok</a> <a href='https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos'>YouTube</a>Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Fertilizer Markets Fertilizer stocks surged Thursday after Ukrainian drones struck two fertilizer plants in western Russia. While the facilities represent a small share of global capacity, the market is now pricing in higher geopolitical risk and potential supply chain disruptions. Earlier this week, President Trump threatened “very severe tariffs” on Canadian fertilizer if needed to boost US production. Canada is the largest supplier of potash to the US, making this a key risk point for US growers. For many US corn farmers, fertilizer is the 3rd largest expense behind land and machinery. Nitrogen (N): ~65–75% of total fertilizer costs Potash (K): ~10–20% of total fertilizer costs Last month, the Trump administration lifted tariffs on most fertilizer imports, including urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, TSP, DAP, and MAP. 🌎 Export Flash Sales Soybeans: 264,000 mt to China (25/26) 266,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26) Corn: 186,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26) 📦 Weekly Export Sales (Catch-Up Report) Corn: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, well above expectations Mexico was the top buyer Soybeans: Near the low end of expectations but improved week-over-week Germany was the largest buyer Small China cancellation Wheat: Sales beat expectations sharply Unknown destinations led buying 🇧🇷 South America Update Conab trimmed Brazil’s soybean crop forecast to 177.1 mmt Still a record crop if realized The cut reflects dry November weather and some replanting About 90% planted as of early December First exportable supplies expected early January Total exports estimated at 112 mmt 🌦️ US Drought Monitor Corn Belt saw cold temps, with most moisture falling as snow Drought mostly unchanged, but worsened in parts of MO and IN High Plains dryness ticked higher in SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma Areas Experiencing Drought: 🌽 Corn: 31% 🌱 Soybeans: 31% 🌾 Winter Wheat: 34% 🌾 Spring Wheat: 16% 🐄 Cattle: 25%

<description>&lt;p&gt;Joe&amp;apos;s Premium Subscription: &lt;a href='https://standardgrain.com/'&gt;www.standardgrain.com&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href='https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095'&gt;Apple Podcasts&lt;br/&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href='https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG'&gt;Spotify&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href='https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf'&gt;TikTok&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href='https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos'&gt;YouTube&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;🌱 Fertilizer Markets&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Fertilizer stocks surged Thursday after Ukrainian drones struck two fertilizer plants in western Russia.&lt;br/&gt;While the facilities represent a small share of global capacity, the market is now pricing in higher geopolitical risk and potential supply chain disruptions.&lt;br/&gt;Earlier this week, President Trump threatened “very severe tariffs” on Canadian fertilizer if needed to boost US production.&lt;br/&gt;Canada is the largest supplier of potash to the US, making this a key risk point for US growers.&lt;br/&gt;For many US corn farmers, fertilizer is the 3rd largest expense behind land and machinery.&lt;br/&gt;Nitrogen (N): ~65–75% of total fertilizer costs&lt;br/&gt;Potash (K): ~10–20% of total fertilizer costs&lt;br/&gt;Last month, the Trump administration lifted tariffs on most fertilizer imports, including urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, TSP, DAP, and MAP.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🌎 Export Flash Sales&lt;br/&gt;Soybeans:&lt;br/&gt;264,000 mt to China (25/26)&lt;br/&gt;266,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26)&lt;br/&gt;Corn:&lt;br/&gt;186,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26)&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;📦 Weekly Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)&lt;br/&gt;Corn: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, well above expectations&lt;br/&gt;Mexico was the top buyer&lt;br/&gt;Soybeans: Near the low end of expectations but improved week-over-week&lt;br/&gt;Germany was the largest buyer&lt;br/&gt;Small China cancellation&lt;br/&gt;Wheat: Sales beat expectations sharply&lt;br/&gt;Unknown destinations led buying&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🇧🇷 South America Update&lt;br/&gt;Conab trimmed Brazil’s soybean crop forecast to 177.1 mmt&lt;br/&gt;Still a record crop if realized&lt;br/&gt;The cut reflects dry November weather and some replanting&lt;br/&gt;About 90% planted as of early December&lt;br/&gt;First exportable supplies expected early January&lt;br/&gt;Total exports estimated at 112 mmt&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;🌦️ US Drought Monitor&lt;br/&gt;Corn Belt saw cold temps, with most moisture falling as snow&lt;br/&gt;Drought mostly unchanged, but worsened in parts of MO and IN&lt;br/&gt;High Plains dryness ticked higher in SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma&lt;br/&gt;Areas Experiencing Drought:&lt;br/&gt;🌽 Corn: 31%&lt;br/&gt;🌱 Soybeans: 31%&lt;br/&gt;🌾 Winter Wheat: 34%&lt;br/&gt;🌾 Spring Wheat: 16%&lt;br/&gt;🐄 Cattle: 25%&lt;/p&gt;</description>

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com  Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —  Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Fertilizer Markets  Fertilizer stocks surged Thursday after Ukrainian drones struck two fertilizer plants in western Russia. While the facilities represent a small share of global capacity, the market is now pricing in higher geopolitical risk and potential supply chain disruptions....

Farmers Need Lower Input Costs, But Trump Wants to Tariff Fertilizer AGAIN

Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

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