The Derivative
RCM Alternatives
Carry, Calendar Spreads, and Climate: Bruce Sinclair on the Future of Grain Markets
FEB 26, 202654 MIN
Carry, Calendar Spreads, and Climate: Bruce Sinclair on the Future of Grain Markets
FEB 26, 202654 MIN
Description
<p>In this episode of The Derivative, host Jeff Malec talks with South African grain spread trader Bruce Sinclair (<a href="https://brent.za.net/" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">Brent Trading</a>) about how he went from a farming background to running a spread-focused commodities program trading Chicago grains from a remote game farm in South Africa. Bruce explains, in plain language, how carry and calendar spreads work, why he believes spreads offer a more manageable risk profile than outright futures, and how he enforces a hard 10% annual drawdown limit for investors. They dig into the realities of global grain markets with Brazil, Argentina, China, and geopolitics in the mix, why commodities aren’t the clean inflation hedge many think they are, and how climate and structural changes are reshaping seasonality. Bruce also shares stories from his off-grid life breeding rhinos and rare game, navigating South African politics and crime, and why he thinks 2026 could bring much more volatility to grain markets than 2025… SEND IT!</p><p><br></p><p>Chapters:</p><p><strong>00:00-00:01:01= </strong>Intro</p><p><strong>01:02-12:34</strong>= From South African Farms to Grain Spreads: How Bruce Built His Ag Trading Edge</p><p><strong>12:35-24:22</strong> = Carry Trades, Calendar Spreads, and Risk Rules: Inside Bruce’s Grain Strategy</p><p><strong>24:23-33:15</strong>= Commodities, Inflation Myths, and the Soybean–Oil–Meal Puzzle</p><p><strong>33:16-46:03</strong>= Politics, Perception, and Life Off-Grid: Running a Trading Firm from Rural South Africa</p><p><strong>46:04-54:53</strong>= Weather, Brazil, and the Limits of Data: Why Bruce Still Trusts Spreads</p><p><br></p><p>Follow along with <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/bruce-sinclair-89447324/" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">Bruce on LinkedIn</a> and be sure to check out Brent Trading's website: <a href="https://brent.za.net" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">brent.za.net</a>!</p><p><br></p><p>Don't forget to subscribe to<a href="https://www.rcmalternatives.com/the-derivative-podcast/" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">The Derivative</a>, follow us on Twitter at<a href="https://twitter.com/rcmAlts" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">@rcmAlts</a> and our host Jeff at<a href="https://twitter.com/AttainCap2" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">@AttainCap2</a>, or<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/rcm-asset-management/" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">LinkedIn</a> , and<a href="https://www.facebook.com/RCMAlternatives/" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">Facebook</a>, and<a href="https://info.rcmalternatives.com/get-our-blog-alternatives" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">sign-up for our blog digest</a>.</p><p><br></p><p>Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit<a href="http://www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer" target="_blank" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer">www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer</a></p><p><br></p>