Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

Noah Doyle, Managing Partner at Javelin Investment Partners in Silicon Valley, with decades-long background in venture capital, joins Kopi Time to talk about tech and AI. We begin with a general discussion on the present vibe in Silicon Valley, giddy with record investments and returns. We then immediately pivot to the question of the moment, if there is an AI bubble, to which Noah offers a detailed and nuanced response, walking us through the supply and demand for AI infrastructure and products, the fund raising and capital deployment ecosystem, and dizzying valuation of AI companies, public and private. I then nudge Noah toward an issue close to his heart--if the path toward AGI through Gen AI, and if not, are there alternative paths in the making. Noah responds by discussing alternatives to Large Language Models, including symbolic logic-based AIs. We take the conversation toward innovations coming out of China and the US, which Noah tracks closely and sees the trend as a positive, mutually beneficial development. We talk about regulatory guardrails, cyber security, privacy, and ethical aspects of AI to round-up this fascinating conversation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

David Marsh, Chairman of OMFIF economic research group, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the UK and Europe, with his new book, “Can Europe Survive?” (Yale University Press, link here), anchoring the conversation. We begin with the current economic, political, and security-related challenges, including US tariffs, China’s industrial prowess, conflict with Russia, immigration, energy security, and the rise of the far right. David delves into his decades of experience on geoeconomics to parse through the difficulties faced by the region’s leaders. He sees an urgent need for liberalisation of capital markets, greater trade and financial linkages with Asia, and sustained efforts to bring the region closer, while at the same time respecting some of the centrifugal forces at play. Europe, according to David, faces its gravest test since the second world war; a fundamental renewal of the EU compact and international partnerships is warranted at this critical juncture.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jawed Ashraf, with over three decades in Indian foreign service, including Ambassador to France and High Commissioner to Singapore, offers his insights on India’s foreign policy here and now. We begin with the India-Europe relationship on trade, investment, tech, talent, travel, and visas, which leads to the challenges related to Russia. The conversation then moves to India’s ongoing challenges vis-à-vis the US, China, and Pakistan. We conclude with going over the vast potential for deeper India-South East Asia collaboration. In each of these cases, the recently retired foreign service veteran digs into his vast experience and deep expertise.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We welcome back Arvind Subramanian, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, to Kopi Time. We focus on some recent work by Arvind and Shoumitro Chatterjee (see article here), in which they argue that China’s continued dominance in low-skill export sectors reflects not just efficiency, but deliberate policy choices that prevent poorer countries from climbing the development ladder. We talk about their findings, nuances to the conclusions, implication  for trade and exchange rate policy, geopolitical considerations, and delve into a few issues beyond the article, including China’s rapid climb up the technology value-addition ladder. We also touch in Arvind’s new book,  A Sixth Of Humanity: Independent India's Development Odyssey, co-authored with Devesh Kapur.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, I deliberate over the recently concluded IMF-World Bank annual meetings. The IMF Meetings in Washington DC featured some recognition of global resiliency amid geoeconomic fragmentation. Concerns about numerous risks at play have not faded though. Governments and firms are dealing with erratic policy making by the US. Trade, commerce, and tech adoption go on in spite of the persisting uncertainty. The IMF sees mild upside to growth risks in the near term. The US economy, buffeted by strong consumption and investment, is on 2% growth trajectory. For the rest of the world, stress lingers, but response is better than expected.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.