Climate Risk Podcast

Hear from Julie Calkins, Director of Sustainability Strategy at Generation Investment Management, as we explore how interconnected risks spanning climate, nature, inequality and AI challenge traditional approaches to risk and return. In investing, we spend a lot of time debating alpha — what gives one portfolio an edge over another. But increasingly, the bigger question is about beta, and the underlying conditions that make any returns possible in the first place. And here we can think about a stable climate, nature as infrastructure and even social cohesion and functioning institutions. Because when those foundations erode, risk stops looking like a set of isolated exposures, and starts to look like something deeper – perhaps systemic instability, cascading impacts, and rising uncertainty that no single firm can diversify away. That's why in this episode we explore: · Why some investors are starting to think more seriously about "protecting the beta", and what that means for portfolio risk and long-term resilience; · How nature risk, climate risk, and inequality interact — with inequality not only as an outcome of shocks, but as a potential driver of fragility and political instability; · And the tools that can help risk professionals make complex, interconnected risks more legible from scenario modelling to frameworks that build a shared language inside organisations. ---------------- To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected] ------------------ Speaker's Bio Julie Calkins, Director of Sustainability Strategy at Generation Investment Management Julie Calkins serves as the Director of Sustainability Strategy at Generation Investment Management since April 2022. Previously, Calkins operated as an Advisor for an independent consultancy firm, CDAX, managing projects for notable clients including the US Climate Alliance Partnership and OECD Global Science Forum from January 2017 to April 2022. Prior roles include Head of Climate Risk and Adaptation at Climate-KIC, a Research and Policy Fellow at Wellcome Trust, and a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the University of Leeds/National Centre for Atmospheric Science. Calkins has also worked as a Monitoring Scientist for NOAA and an Antarctic Scientist for the US Antarctic Program. Academic credentials include a PhD in Environmental Science and Health from the University of York and an MS in Geochemistry from New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology. With a background spanning environmental science, disaster risk, and global policy, Julie brings a rare systems-level perspective to sustainable investing.

Hear from Jo Paisley and Maxine Nelson of the GARP Risk Institute as they look back on key learnings from the past year of the Climate Risk Podcast. As we head into 2026, the GARP Climate Risk Podcast kicks off the new year with a retrospective on the past 12 months, reviewing the key themes and insights that emerged during 2025's podcasts. After 6 years of hosting the podcast, this might be the most wide-ranging conversation so far – from how one should adjust probability of default for climate risk, to the risk factors that might lead to the collapse of society. To make things a bit more manageable, this retrospective has been split into three main areas of focus: First, what did we learn about physical risks, both from nature loss and climate change? Second, what did we learn about the transition to net zero? And third, what lessons were there for firms – either in risk management or business more generally? We also hear from our guests on advice they have specifically for risk professionals. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected] Links to featured episodes: Sebastian Leape - The CSRD Effect: How Regulation is Elevating Nature Risk Eva Zabey - Beyond Climate: A Risk Professionals' Guide to the Biodiversity COPs Prof. Aled Jones - Flawed Models, Fragile Systems: The Risks in Energy & Food Policy Dr. Levke Caesar - Nine Limits, Six Breached: The Planetary Boundaries Crisis Explained Alyssa Gilbert - How to Make an Impact: Secrets to Climate Startup Success Laurie Laybourn - Beyond 1.5°C: How to Think About Our New Climate Reality Stephanie Race - Why Food System Disruption Is the New Normal Rowan Douglas - Resilience and Retreat: What Insurability Tells Us About Climate Risk Dr. Ajay Gambhir - Navigating Systemic Risk in the Age of Polycrisis Hirotaka Hideshima - From Basel to Biodiversity: An Ex-Central Banker's Take on Nature Risk Prof. Tim Lenton OBE - Positive Tipping Points: How to Fix the Climate Crisis Judson Berkey - Embedding Nature Risk: Insights from a Senior Banking Professional Dr. Luke Kemp - Societal Collapse in a Warming World: A Risk Manager's Lens Today's Speakers Jo Paisley is President of the GARP Risk Institute, the thought leadership arm of GARP. Set up in early 2018, the Institute works across all risk disciplines, with Jo's focus to date on climate- and nature-related risk management and scenario analysis, stress testing and operational resilience. Her career began at the Bank of England where she worked in a variety of roles across macroeconomics, statistics, supervision and risk. Her last role was as a Director of the Supervisory Risk Specialists Division within the Prudential Regulation Authority, where she was heavily involved in the design and execution of the UK's first concurrent stress test in 2014. She left the Bank in 2015 and joined HSBC as their Global Head of Stress Testing. She has also worked as an independent stress testing consultant, advising firms on how to get the most value out of stress testing. Dr. Maxine Nelson is a Senior Vice President at the GARP Risk Institute, GARP's research and thought leadership arm, where she focusses on climate- and nature-related financial risk management. She has extensive experience in risk, capital and regulation gained from a wide-ranging variety of roles, including Global Head of Wholesale Risk Analytics and Head of Capital Planning at HSBC, significantly expanding counterparty credit risk management at the UK Financial Services Authority during the last financial crisis, leading the credit risk team at KPMG London, senior credit risk consultant at Oliver Wyman, and embedding operational risk analytics globally at National Australia Bank. Maxine has a degree in mechanical engineering and a PhD about how best to apply probability theory to real world problems.

Hear from Dr. Luke Kemp of the Center for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, as we dive into the risk factors for societal collapse in both the past and future. When risk professionals talk about systemic risk, we usually mean markets, institutions, and interconnected exposures. But zoom out far enough, and there's a bigger question underneath it all: what makes an entire society resilient – or vulnerable – to collapse? That's why in this episode, we explore the history and future of societal collapse through a risk lens: looking at how complex systems fail, how multiple threats compound, and the early warning signs of collapse. We discuss: · What societal collapse actually means in practice, and why it's rarely a single event, but a buildup of stresses and cascading failures; · How inequality amplifies fragility, weakening trust, institutions, and the capacity to respond when shocks hit; · And what a real-world "collapse risk dashboard" might look like for societies. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected] Links from the discussion: Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse - https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/321192/goliaths-curse-by-kemp-luke/9780241741238 Speaker's Bio Dr. Luke Kemp, Research Affiliate, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge Luke researches the end of the world. He is a Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge. He has advised and led foresight studies for multiple international organisations, including the WHO and Convention on Biological Diversity. His work has been covered by media outlets such as the BBC, the New York Times, and the New Yorker. He is the author of the bestselling book Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse.

Hear from Judson Berkey, Managing Director in the Chief Sustainability Office at UBS, as we learn first-hand how banks are approaching nature risk. Within finance, nature is usually treated as background: important, but invisible. However, that is beginning to change. New frameworks, regulations, and expectations are emerging worldwide, and many firms are starting to measure their impacts and dependencies on nature. In this episode, we explore how that shift is happening from the perspective of someone inside one of the world's largest banks. We discuss: Which lessons from climate disclosure apply to nature, and which do not; Why some regulatory approaches to ESG-type topics are more effective than others; and The importance of not waiting for perfect data before taking action. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected] Speaker's Bio Judson Berkey, Managing Director, Chief Sustainability Office, UBS Judson is a Managing Director in the Chief Sustainability Office at UBS based in Zurich where he has worked since 2003 on global risk, regulatory and compliance topics. He currently focuses on sustainable finance policy and regulation including engagement with policymakers and standard setters. He also leads UBS work on nature. He graduated from Harvard Law School and the University of Virginia and is on the board of ECOFACT. He currently chairs the Institute of International Finance Sustainable Finance Working Group and represents UBS on the Taskforce for Nature-related Financial Disclosures and Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero Steering Group.

Hear from Prof. Tim Lenton OBE, as we explore the potential of positive tipping points in accelerating the transition to a net-zero economy. What happens when the conversation about climate change shifts from avoiding disaster to unlocking positive change? Suddenly, it's not just about risk - it's about momentum. Because while some systems may be close to dangerous tipping points, others – like clean energy, electric transport, and sustainable food – are tipping in the right direction. That's why in this episode, we explore how to accelerate those positive shifts, including: · How smart policies can trigger widespread, self-reinforcing change across economies and societies; · Why leveraging social norms and human behavior is just as critical as investing in technology; · And what it takes to create the tipping points that move us toward a stable climate, not away from one. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected] Links from today's discussion: Tim's previous podcast appearance - https://www.garp.org/podcast/complexities-climate-risk-cr-201102 Positive Tipping Points: How to Fix the Climate Crisis - https://academic.oup.com/book/60007 Global Tipping Points Report 2025 - https://global-tipping-points.org/ Speaker's Bio Prof. Tim Lenton OBE, Founding Director, Global Systems Institute, and Chair in Climate Change and Earth System Science, University of Exeter Tim is the founding Director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter and Chair in Climate Change and Earth System Science. He has more than 25 years research experience, focused on modelling of the biosphere, climate, biogeochemical cycles, and associated tipping points. Tim is renowned for his work identifying climate tipping points, which informed the setting of the 1.5C climate target, associated net zero targets, and nationally determined contributions. Tim works with policymakers and businesses helping them assess the risks of climate change and nature loss and highlighting the opportunities for 'positive tipping points' that can accelerate change towards net zero. In 2023, Professor Lenton led a team of more than 200 people from over 90 organisations in 26 countries to produce an authoritative assessment of the risks and opportunities of both negative and positive tipping points in the Earth system and society. The 'Global Tipping Points Report' produced in partnership with Bezos Earth Fund was published at COP28.