<description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;span style= "font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; color: #10333b; border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0in; padding: 0in;"&gt; Our fifth scholar in the series is&lt;/span&gt; &lt;a style= "font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;" href="https://www.asknarayan.com/"&gt;&lt;span style= "font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif;"&gt;Karthik Narayan&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;span style= "font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; color: #212121;"&gt;, &lt;span class= "apple-converted-space"&gt;who&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span style= "font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; color: #10333b; border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0in; padding: 0in;"&gt; is a doctoral candidate&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span style= "font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; color: #212121;"&gt;in Economics at&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span style= "font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; color: #212121;"&gt;Nuffield College and at the Department of Economics, University of Oxford.  &lt;span class="apple-converted-space"&gt;His&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="gbyvff"&gt;research focuses on monetary policy, macroeconomics and finance in developing countries.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span style= "font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; color: #10333b;"&gt;&lt;span style= "border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0in; padding: 0in;"&gt; We spoke about his job market paper titled,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt; &lt;a href= "https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/44ugmgp1h984asu68jneh/JMP_Draft_KN.pdf?rlkey=zqliqeehhri1wdg7npign451y&amp;e=2&amp;st=mv1xoq6n&amp;dl=0"&gt; &lt;span style="font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif;"&gt;Macroeconomic Effects of Scheduled and Unscheduled Monetary Policy Surprises.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p style="vertical-align: baseline;"&gt;&lt;span style= "font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; color: #10333b; border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0in; padding: 0in;"&gt; We talked about how the Reserve Bank of India makes and announces its policies, its impact on interest rates, inflation expectations and output, measuring the impact of policy announcements, the Lucas Critique and much more.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Recorded August 28th, 2025.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Read a &lt;a href= "https://www.mercatus.org/ideasofindia/karthik-narayan-measuring-effects-unscheduled-vs-scheduled-monetary-policy"&gt;full transcript&lt;/a&gt; enhanced with helpful links.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Connect with Ideas of India&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="https://twitter.com/ideasofindia"&gt;Follow us on X&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Follow &lt;a href= "https://twitter.com/srajagopalan"&gt;Shruti&lt;/a&gt; on X&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Follow &lt;a href="https://x.com/asknarayan"&gt;Karthik&lt;/a&gt; on X&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Click &lt;a href= "https://mercatus.tfaforms.net/5060934"&gt;&lt;span class= "s2"&gt;here&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/a&gt; for the latest Ideas of India episodes sent straight to your inbox.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Timestamps&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;(00:00:00) - Intro&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;(00:03:22) - Measuring Causality Is Hard&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;(00:11:16) - What Counts as a Policy Surprise? &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;(00:13:27) - OIS and MIBOR: Expectation Thermometers&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;(00:21:11) - Short term versus long term effects on asset prices  &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;(00:27:18) - Noise and Fiscal-Monetary Coordination&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;(00:32:46) - Inflation Before and After the MPC&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;(00:37:24) - The Lucas Critique&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;(00:40:51) - Practical Implications&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;(00:45:48) - Other Research Interests &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;(00:47:39) - Outro &lt;/p&gt;</description>

Ideas of India

Mercatus Center at George Mason University

Karthik Narayan on Measuring the Effects of Unscheduled vs. Scheduled Monetary Policy Announcements

NOV 6, 202548 MIN
Ideas of India

Karthik Narayan on Measuring the Effects of Unscheduled vs. Scheduled Monetary Policy Announcements

NOV 6, 202548 MIN

Description

Our fifth scholar in the series is Karthik Narayan, who is a doctoral candidate in Economics at Nuffield College and at the Department of Economics, University of Oxford. His research focuses on monetary policy, macroeconomics and finance in developing countries.

We spoke about his job market paper titled, Macroeconomic Effects of Scheduled and Unscheduled Monetary Policy Surprises.

We talked about how the Reserve Bank of India makes and announces its policies, its impact on interest rates, inflation expectations and output, measuring the impact of policy announcements, the Lucas Critique and much more.

Recorded August 28th, 2025.

Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links.

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Timestamps

(00:00:00) - Intro

(00:03:22) - Measuring Causality Is Hard

(00:11:16) - What Counts as a Policy Surprise?

(00:13:27) - OIS and MIBOR: Expectation Thermometers

(00:21:11) - Short term versus long term effects on asset prices

(00:27:18) - Noise and Fiscal-Monetary Coordination

(00:32:46) - Inflation Before and After the MPC

(00:37:24) - The Lucas Critique

(00:40:51) - Practical Implications

(00:45:48) - Other Research Interests

(00:47:39) - Outro