Risk of Ruin

A very specific housing related bet. How did we go from The Big Short... to a housing shortage in such a short time? Governments in seemingly disparate places are having to take drastic measures to enable more housing development. This episode is about how those conditions materialized in the United States, and also whether anything can be done to ameliorate the situation. Kevin Erdmann is a Senior Affiliated Scholar at the Mercatus Center. Kevin’s SubstackFollow Kevin on TwitterBen Bea...

Kris Abdelmessih writes the Moontower newsletter which is required reading for any edge seeking generalist who wants to learn about the world of volatility. Kris got his start as a trader over 20 years ago with Susquehanna. He talks about getting the job, SIG’s training program, and the “degenerate atmosphere.” Kris also talks about his career where he moved from pit to pit, and then ultimately became a portfolio manager at a vol focused hedge fund. Kris also has options analytics software - ...

Thomas started as a losing bettor, and then learned to win. Eventually he won so much that a regulated sportsbooks stole several million dollars from him. He talks about CLV, harvesting bonuses, faking the NBA overnight market, parlays, SGPs, round robins, and VIP rewards. Follow Thomas on Twitter: https://x.com/t_stephens97 Subscribe to the Premium Substack: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/p/trial-and-error?r=ckepv&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false Foll...

Jamie, Steve, and Kyle are advantage players. They talk about beating casino games including carnival games, automatic roulette wheels, and sweepstakes slot machines. Support the show: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/ References from the episode: Laurence Scott on Gambling With an Edge. Mark Billings on Gambling With an Edge (related to biased wheels), and also using computers. Mark Billings on Risk of Ruin. The Eudaemonic Pie. Bloomberg article on roulette. A Man for All Markets - which d...

Domer is a prediction market trader, and is one of the biggest bettors on Polymarket. He talks about his journey from Intrade, to Predictit, to Polymarket. He also talks about the 2024 election, which was a rollercoaster. It featured highs - like backing Kamala Harris before President Joe Biden had even dropped out of the race - and also lows, like being short Trump on election night. Domer also talks about unraveling the mystery of the so-called French Whale. Domer on Polymarket: https://pol...