The Conditional Release Program

We are back with some news! Jack looks at a theory on why there are fewer serial killers now than ever - is it because CBCo started brewing? Maybe true crime podcasters. But Jack has a theory. ACIP under Kennedy have yanked the Hepatitis B Vaccine (HBV) recommendation which is going to give RFK Jr's death count a nudge - but the numbers will come long after he's dead. Does that mean he gets away with it? Probably. Marco Rubio changes the official State Department font back to Times New Roman because Calibri is something something DEI. Is Calibri a bit gay? I suppose so? In cooker update we look at Monica's massive flop and a few other things, basic housekeeping. In SovCits we have a cracker of a story and it's predictably dumb. Speaking of predictably dumb, it's Babet this week and it's not very interesting. Enjoy!

AI slop shownotes as per usual. Possible Episode TitlesBears, Budgets, and the Billion-Dollar InterfaceThe BOM Shell, Hong Kong Fires, and Pink Ball TacticsBamboo Scaffolds and Bureaucratic BlowoutsFrom the Kowloon Hills to the Gabba: Bears, Bombs, and BazballEpisode BlurbIn Episode 136, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack connect to discuss a tragic week in Hong Kong following a devastating fire in the New Territories. The Jacks dive deep into the bureaucracy back home, tearing apart the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s "interface" upgrade that ballooned from $4 million to $94 million—a classic case of consultant heavy-lifting and public service decline.The conversation spans the globe, touching on the underwhelming COP summit in Brazil, the "shambolic" UK Budget under Keir Starmer, and the curious bonhomie between Donald Trump and his political rivals. Plus, there are bears attacking in Japan and "wrench attacks" in Vancouver.Finally, the boys turn their eyes to the Gabba for the Pink Ball Test. Can England bounce back? Is Travis Head the key? And who will take home the flag in the AFLW Grand Final?Show Notes & Timestamps[00:00:00] Tragedy in Hong KongHong Kong Jack reports on the devastating fire in the New Territories with a death toll nearing 100. The boys discuss the history of the apartment blocks, the use of bamboo scaffolding in construction, and the grim reality of high-density living for the elderly.[00:09:13] The Lantau SwimA lighter note from HK: two swimmers tackle the waters around Lantau Island. The Jacks question the water quality near the Pearl River Delta.[00:10:31] Victorian Politics: A New Hope?Discussion on the polling boost for Victorian Liberal Leader Jess Wilson. Is the shine coming off the Labor government, and can the Liberals actually win the next state election?[00:14:03] COP30 in BrazilA wrap-up of the climate summit in Belém. The consensus? A lot of money spent for very little actionable result, and relief that Australia didn't drop a billion dollars hosting it.[00:16:15] The BOM Website FiascoJoel tears into the Bureau of Meteorology’s upgrade. What was sold as a $4 million "interface" refresh has skyrocketed to $94 million. A broader discussion on the "consultancy disease" (Accenture, IBM) and the hollowing out of IT skills within the Australian Public Service.[00:28:03] The Brittany Higgins Saga ContinuesAnalysis of Cameron Milner’s "Watergate" comments regarding Labor’s handling of the Fiona Brown and Linda Reynolds legal claims. The Jacks argue for a swift settlement and a fair go for Fiona Brown.[00:35:10] Inflation & The Public ServiceInflation sticks at 3.5%, driven largely by government spending. Discussion on the massive expansion of the public service workforce under the current government and the lack of a "Peter Walsh-style" finance minister to curb spending.[00:39:49] Ukraine, Russia, and the Peace DealThe latest on the peace proposals. Is a "dirty deal" inevitable? The Jacks discuss Russia’s war economy, J.D. Vance’s peace plan, and why Poland’s military build-up is the model for the rest of Europe.[00:51:37] UK Budget ShamblesReaction to the Starmer Government’s budget. Leaks, "mansion taxes," and rising welfare bills for the "work-shy." Plus, Kemi Badenoch’s parliamentary performance compared to the Keating era.[00:59:04] The BBC’s Funding CrisisThe "Beeb" blows a billion dollars as license fee cancellations soar. Joel and Jack discuss the archaic nature of the TV license fee compared to funding via general revenue.[01:02:19] Bear Attacks in JapanAn unexpected crisis in Japan: Asiatic brown bears are moving from rural areas to urban centres, mauling nearly 200 people.[01:05:39] Crypto Crime in "Hongcouver"A violent "wrench attack" in British Columbia highlights the dangers of physical crypto theft. Joel muses on the future of encryption vs. supercomputers.[01:08:58] US Politics: Trump & The "Fascist" LabelDonald Trump’s surprisingly civil meeting with NY political figures (Zohran Mamdani) despite previous name-calling. Plus, the dismissal of the James Comey and Letitia James indictments.[01:18:19] Cricket: The Gabba Pink Ball TestPreviewing the Test Match. Can England recover from their Perth tactics? The debate over Scott Boland’s bowling, Mitchell Stark’s form, and why it’s time to call time on Usman Khawaja. The Jacks predict tactics for the swinging pink ball.[01:28:41] India’s Coaching WoesAfter a 2-0 drubbing by South Africa at home, Gautam Gambhir’s tenure is under the microscope.[01:31:05] AFLW Grand Final PreviewBrisbane Lions vs. North Melbourne at Princes Park. North are on a historic winning streak, but can the Lions cause an upset?[01:32:48] Racing & Offshore BettingA look at the leakage of wagering revenue to offshore operators and James Packer’s recent comments on tax.

This week we have swapped Jack for Adriana Boisen who is an activist and member of the Palestine Action Group who thinks NSW Premier Chris Minns may be walking into yet another trap set by the NSN. Can we legislate neo-nazis into nonexistence? Probably not. But it makes a great headline! While the new laws are specific to nazi ideology - what does that actually mean and who decides what that is? The cops or the courts. In the end, the process is the punishment and we have seen some very dubious applications of existing laws that are meant to target neo nazis and end up punishing people who clearly are not nazis. It doesn't really matter what the outcome of the court case is, defending a criminal charge sucks. It is episode 200 which we should probably celebrate somehow but we will save that for next episode. Or we will forget. I don't know how many promises I have broken over the course of the podcast so I won't make this one. But good things are in the pipeline.Enjoy!

We are back with a classic news episode. We lead with Epstein - the thorn in Donald Trump's diaper. Did he suck off Bill Clinton? Probably not. Does he really give off a 'generous lover' aura?We also check out how old Tredders is going. It's not great. To summarise, Port Adelaide asked him to apologise for his comments on our Jewish friends and he said no.We take a quick look at the mountain of nazi news that has recently developed and bask in the schaudenfreude of the post Macquarie Street consequence festival. We recorded on Sunday so I have added a bit of an update on Matty Grutes who has had a absolute shit of a week. We look at some of the other dummies who thought the time was right to take off the mask. The time is never right to take off the mask! Get off twitter and touch some grass. People still hate nazis.In SovCits we look at a previous SovCit who remains a bit SovCitty - Andrew Morton Garrett who is a very funny boy. A winemaker who may have sampled too much of his own product. He now owns Australia. Geez. Better not laugh at him I suppose. We mentioned him in episode 156 and hopefully we will pump out an episode on him. He really is hilarious.And of course we have Pete - a man who recently dared go to the shops without shoes or a shirt, likely after a swim at the beach, and then made the truly sinister motion of putting his hands in his hair. As someone with very little hair this offends me on several levels, so I think it's completely reasonable what news.com.au decided to say about this tawdry affair. At the shops. Near a beach.Enjoy!

Recorded: November 6, 2025 (Oaks Day)Hosts: Joel Hill (Jack the Insider) & Hong Kong JackEpisode DescriptionJoin Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack as they dissect the Coalition's spectacular implosion, the Nationals' abandonment of net zero, and why Dennis Shanahan called this opposition "the worst in 40 years." Plus: Trump's approval hits rock bottom, US midterm election results send shockwaves, and why Ireland elected a grim president who toured Syria with Assad.Timestamps & Show Notes00:00:25 - Welcome & Oaks Day ChatThe Jacks kick off discussing Melbourne's Oaks Day and why it was always better than the Cup for racing enthusiasts. Hong Kong Jack shares a memorable story about a judge who mysteriously adjourned court so everyone could hit the track.​00:02:39 - Coalition in Crisis: Net Zero AbandonedThe National Party abandons net zero emissions targets, putting enormous pressure on the Liberal Party. Dennis Shanahan declares this the "worst opposition in 40 years" after a horror question time where Alex Hawke couldn't understand basic parliamentary procedures.​00:05:38 - South Australian Liberal Party Mass ExodusOver 200 members quit the SA Liberal Party in protest of Susan Ley's leadership and failure to abandon net zero. The state branch, dominated by hard-right figures like Senator Alex Antic, has a history of internal bloodshed.​00:07:33 - What Does Net Zero Actually Mean?The Jacks discuss how net zero has become an "article of faith" for enough Australians to matter politically, even if most people can't define it. It essentially represents action on climate change in voters' minds.​00:12:29 - Can Susan Ley Survive to Christmas?Hong Kong Jack predicts Ley might not survive until Christmas as Liberal leader, noting the killing season is upon us with the last parliamentary sitting coming up. Her best chance? That nobody else wants the awful job.​00:14:38 - The James Patterson ProblemSenator James Patterson is described as a rising star who actually reads his briefs, but he's stuck in the Senate. Finding him a safe House seat in Victoria is virtually impossible with Monash (the safest Liberal seat) held by only 4%.​00:16:58 - Liberal Party: From Major to MinorJack the Insider argues we're witnessing the Liberal Party's descent from major to minor party status, not unlike what happened to the United Australia Party in 1943. With only 26 members in parliament and 24% primary vote, the party faces potential oblivion.​00:18:34 - One Nation's Rise: 15-16% and GrowingOne Nation's support has surged from 6% to 15-16%, with the party establishing branches across NSW and Queensland. The biggest threat isn't to the Liberals, but to the Nationals in mining-based seats like Hunter and Capricornia.​00:21:46 - COP in Adelaide: A Billion Dollar Boondoggle?The proposed Conference of the Parties climate summit in Adelaide carries a $1 billion price tag. Hong Kong Jack questions who would notice if it didn't happen "apart from the grifters."​00:23:27 - National Anti-Corruption Commission TroublesCommissioner Paul Brereton faces serious conflict of interest issues due to his Army Reserve role and involvement in Afghanistan war crimes inquiries. The commission operates largely in secret, disappointing those who wanted an ICAC-style public inquiry.​00:28:23 - RoboDebt: Why No Criminal Charges?Discussion of the SBS documentary on RoboDebt and why senior public servants who knew the scheme was illegal haven't faced criminal charges. Some even got promoted despite their roles in the scandal.​00:30:19 - Bureau of Meteorology Website DisasterThe BOM's new website launched right before severe Queensland storms, leaving users unable to understand warnings. The acting CEO was dragged before Minister Murray Watt for a ritual flogging and awkward video apology.​00:35:52 - "Free" Solar Power AnnouncementChris Bowen announces three hours of free solar power daily for homes with smart meters in NSW, SE Queensland, and SA. Hong Kong Jack calls it "smoke and mirrors" - really just an attempt to shift demand to low-usage periods.​00:38:16 - Streaming Services Must Fund Aussie ContentNew laws will require streaming platforms to invest 10% of expenditure or 7.5% of revenue in Australian content. Hong Kong Jack immediately asks if 98% can go to true crime documentaries.​00:41:56 - Coalition Support Crashes to Record Low 24%Newspoll shows Coalition primary vote at just 24%, down from 40% in February. Combined with Labor's 33-34%, less than 60% of voters support the major parties - down from 80% in 2004.​00:44:39 - Andrew Neil: The Death of Centre-Right PartiesDiscussion of Andrew Neil's speech to the Centre for Independent Studies about how conservative parties have lost the metropolitan, educated "lanyard class" who were once their base. The UK Conservatives now hold just 9 metropolitan seats.​00:48:34 - The Great Inversion: Rich Counties Vote DemocratIn the 1950s, Republicans won 56% of America's richest counties. In 2024, Democrats won 190 of the 200 richest counties. The establishment institutions - universities, judiciary, civil service - have all shifted centre-left.​00:51:19 - US Employment & Immigration CrackdownUS unemployment sits at 4.3%, but labor shortages are emerging as ICE sweeps up workers and visa costs skyrocket to $100,000. Meanwhile, Trump's disapproval rating hits 63% - the highest of either term.​00:52:53 - Virginia & New Jersey: Democrats DominateTuesday's elections saw Democrats win overwhelmingly in traditionally blue areas, with every single county shifting toward Democrats - the complete reverse of 2024's presidential election pattern. Latino voters showed 30% leads for Democrats.​00:59:28 - Cost of Living Kills AdministrationsBoth Trump and Biden made the same mistake: telling Americans inflation is under control while grocery bills say otherwise. The New York mayor-elect won by focusing relentlessly on reducing childcare and living costs.​01:02:21 - Trump Has the World's Biggest Laser PointerDiscussion of how Trump controls the news cycle while Americans struggle with real costs. "Trump has the biggest laser pointer in the world and all the media are cats" chasing wherever he points it.​01:03:23 - Millennials Aren't Becoming ConservativeUnlike previous generations, millennials in their 40s with mortgages and kids aren't shifting right. They continue voting left, with Liberals only leading in the 65+ demographic (52-48). Housing affordability drives cynicism and socialist sympathies.​01:07:20 - New York's New Socialist MayorMandami wins NYC mayor's race with strong support from new arrivals who feel they'll never get a fair go. Long-time residents still voted for the corrupt Andrew Cuomo, knowing what a "terrible human being" he is.​01:09:13 - News in BriefEuropean firms create $6.5B SpaceX rival - Hungary begs for Russian oil exemption - Israeli startup raises $60M for sun-reflecting climate tech that could disrupt weather - Gaza rebuilding cost hits $70B - Trump companies made $1B in crypto profits - North Korea builds museum for Ukraine war dead - Ireland elects grim anti-NATO president who toured Syria with Assad.​01:13:55 - Supreme Court Tariff ShowdownSCOTUS hears arguments on Trump's emergency tariff powers - a 50-50 call that could force refunds of all tariff money collected and potentially save the presidency by making him walk it back.​01:16:45 - Government Shutdown & Dick Cheney's DeathThe shutdown continues as 9 of 10 states most reliant on food assistance are red states. Dick Cheney dies at 84, described by critics as someone who should have been tried as a war criminal and by W as "among the finest public servants of his generation."​Suggested Episode Titles"The Coalition's 24% Problem""Net Zero to Hero: How the Nats Torpedoed the Libs""Worst Opposition in 40 Years: Coalition Chaos""Millionaires, Millennials, and the Death of Conservative Politics""The Laser Pointer Presidency: Trump's Media Circus""From Major to Minor: The Liberal Party's Long Goodbye""Cost of Living: The Killer That Never Misses""Susan Ley's Impossible Choice: Net Zero or Political Oblivion"Next Episode: Episode 134Produced by: Joel (currently surviving law school exams)Thanks for listening to Two Jacks - where Australian and international politics get the analysis they deserve.