Key Wealth Matters
Key Wealth Matters

Key Wealth Matters

Key Wealth Institute

Overview
Episodes

Details

Key Wealth Matters, a podcast series hosted by the experts of the Key Wealth Institute, explores the biggest news of today to determine how these headlines can impact wealth plans, financial strategies, markets, and investments. Join our team of advisors for unbiased, proactive advice about individual and family finances, estate and legacy planning, family dynamics, investing, as well as trends for business owners, nonprofits, and institutions. To submit potential topics or questions to our experts, contact us via email at [email protected]. For more information, articles, or other insights related to wealth management, visit key.com/ourinsights. _____________________________________________________ Key Wealth, Key Private Bank, Key Family Wealth, KeyBank Institutional Advisors and Key Private Client are marketing names for KeyBank National Association (KeyBank) and certain affiliates, such as Key Investment Services LLC (KIS) and KeyCorp Insurance Agency USA Inc. (KIA). We gather data and information from specialized sources and financial databases including but not limited to Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), Dow Jones / Dow Jones Newsplus, FactSet, Federal Reserve and corresponding 12 district banks / Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), ICE BofA (Bank of America) MOVE Index, Morningstar / Morningstar.com, Standard & Poor’s and Wall Street Journal / WSJ.com. The Key Wealth Institute is comprised of financial professionals representing KeyBank National Association (KeyBank) and certain affiliates, such as Key Investment Services LLC (KIS) and KeyCorp Insurance Agency USA Inc. (KIA). Any opinions, projections, or recommendations contained herein are subject to change without notice, are those of the individual author(s), and may not necessarily represent the views of KeyBank or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. This material presented is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or product or to employ a specific investment or tax planning strategy. KeyBank, nor its subsidiaries or affiliates, represent, warrant or guarantee that this material is accurate, complete or suitable for any purpose or any investor and it should not be used as a basis for investment or tax planning decisions. It is not to be relied upon or used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. It should not be construed as individual tax, legal or financial advice. Investment products, brokerage and investment advisory services are offered through KIS, member FINRA/SIPC and SEC-registered investment advisor. Insurance products are offered through KIA. Insurance products offered through KIA are underwritten by and the obligation of insurance companies that are not affiliated with KeyBank. Non-Deposit products are: NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE • NOT A DEPOSIT • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL OR STATE GOVERNMENT AGENCY ©2025 KeyCorp®. All rights reserved.

Recent Episodes

AI‑n’t a Bubble (Yet): Winners, Losers, and the H1:2026 Equity Sprint
DEC 5, 2025
AI‑n’t a Bubble (Yet): Winners, Losers, and the H1:2026 Equity Sprint
On this week’s episode, a busy week of mixed economic signals—initial jobless claims hit a very low 191,000 while ADP reported a -32,000 decline in private payrolls—and a split economy where ISM Manufacturing remains in contraction as Services continue to expand. With a delayed September PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) arriving today, just before next week’s FOMC meeting, markets are leaning toward a 25 bp “risk management” cut as Treasury yields hover in a 4.05–4.15% range and auctions resume. Looking ahead to 2026, the team expects continued momentum without a recession, a need for discernment in AI rather than bubble fears, a potentially more dovish Fed posture amid leadership changes, a strong first half for equities, and a steady emphasis on diversification through debt concerns and midterm-election noise.Speakers: Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities  01:37 - Labor Market & Economy Split: Initial claims ~191,000 and below 225,000 for three weeks; BLS jobs report delayed to Dec 16; ADP shows -32,000 private payrolls—cooling, ISM Manufacturing remains in contraction (multi-year) while Services continue expanding—highlighting a bifurcated economy. 3:47 - Inflation & Fed setup: September PCE is the last read before the FOMC; markets price ~95% odds of a 25 bp cut, with dot‑plot dissents crucial for the 2026 rate path. 07:16 - Rates & Auctions: 10‑year Treasury trading ~4.05–4.15% with dip‑buying; auctions restart next week ($58 billion 3‑yr, $39 billion 10‑yr, $22 billion 30‑yr). 09:47 - 2026 Outlook Highlights: Momentum without recession; AI requires discernment (ecosystems forming, winners vs. losers); possible dovish tilt at the Fed amid leadership changes; equities set up for a strong first half with potential mid‑year inflation‑related volatility; stay diversified through debt/deficit concerns and midterm‑election uncertainty.  Additional Resources Rewatch: Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth in an Age of Disruption and Change  Key Questions Weekly Investment Brief Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletter Follow us on LinkedIn 
play-circle icon
24 MIN
Economic Crosswinds and Fed Uncertainty: Positioning for 2026
NOV 21, 2025
Economic Crosswinds and Fed Uncertainty: Positioning for 2026
With the historic government shutdown behind us, we dig back into key economic data captured over the duration of the shutdown: highlights include a modest improvement in housing activity, favorable labor market indicators despite data being somewhat stale, and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve amid uncertainty over December rate cuts. Equity markets showed heightened volatility, with strong earnings failing to sustain momentum, suggesting potential consolidation through year-end. Fixed income markets remain highly sensitive to Fed commentary, reflecting divergent views among policymakers. We also take a walk down memory lane to our 2025 predictions from last year—accurate on most calls—and preview the themes we think will impact 2026: global shifts toward nationalism, AI-driven disruption, and structural changes in financial markets. Please join us on December 3 for our last National Call of the year, when we’ll dig into these topics and take questions from the audience.  Speakers: Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income  01:53 – Current Market and Economic Updates. Housing market improvement with existing home sales. Labor market stability, with unemployment claims holding and payrolls showing growth. Federal Reserve uncertainty, as October FOMC minutes reveal mixed opinions on rate cuts. Corporate earnings reports, which were strong but met with negative market reactions   08:04 – Equity Market Volatility and Seasonal Trends. Equity markets experienced an “outside day” with sharp reversals despite strong earnings. After strong September–October rallies, November–December may see consolidation rather than a typical year-end rally   11:46 – Fed Policy and Fixed Income Market Outlook. Fixed income markets are highly sensitive to Fed signals amid data gaps from the government shutdown. Divergence among Fed members on rate cuts vs. a pause creates volatility.   15:11 – We look back at our predictions from last year for 2025 trends and assess how accurate they were, and look ahead to our predictions for 2026, which we’ll cover in more depth at our upcoming December 3 webinar (registration link below).  Additional Resources Attend: Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth in an Age of Disruption and Change  Key Questions Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletter Weekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn 
play-circle icon
28 MIN
Penny for Your Thoughts? Consumer Trends and the Fog of Uncertainty Persists
NOV 14, 2025
Penny for Your Thoughts? Consumer Trends and the Fog of Uncertainty Persists
This week, we cover the historic end of U.S. penny production resulting from high manufacturing costs and obsolescence. Market updates focused on lingering uncertainty due to delayed economic data from the recent government shutdown, while Federal Reserve policy remains unclear, with rate cuts seen as a toss up ahead of December’s meeting. With holiday shopping well underway, we discuss consumer trends, noting resilience despite crosscurrents like tariffs and inflation, with strong performance from major retailers and signs of a “K-shaped” economy. Overall, our current outlook suggests cautious optimism for 2026, supported by fiscal and monetary tailwinds.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy, Key Wealth,George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer, Key WealthRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income, Key WealthBradley Thomas, Managing Director of Equity Research, KeyBanc Capital Markets 00:23 –The U.S. Mint has stopped producing pennies after 232 years due to high manufacturing costs, sparking discussion on its economic implications and impact on transactions.02:03 –The recent and historic 43-day government shutdown has finally ended. We discuss its impact, and the resulting delays in critical economic reports like unemployment claims, CPI, and retail sales, and its role in creating uncertainty across markets.06:18 – We highlight uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy and changes, potential December rate cuts, the lack of clarity due to missing data, and upcoming leadership turnover, including the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic’s planned retirement in February and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair ending in 2026.11:20 – Special guest Brad Thomas, Managing Director of Equity Research with KeyBanc Capital Markets, joins the podcast this week to discuss consumer resilience amid crosscurrents such as tariffs and inflation, noting strong performance from major retailers, bifurcation between affluent and lower-income consumers, and shifts in spending patterns toward home-related goods.16:09 –Our experts examine how tariff increases could affect holiday shopping, with potential price pressures in categories like toys, and how retailers are managing these challenges.19:02 –Rising delinquencies in credit cards and loans are rising concerns for lower-income consumers, while overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic thanks to anticipated fiscal and monetary stimulus supporting spending and investment opportunities.  Additional ResourcesRead: Higher Education Changes in Recent YearsPrepare: Top 10 2025 Year-End Planning Strategies for Business Owners Key QuestionsSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn
play-circle icon
25 MIN
Afraid of the Dark: Sentiment Falters as Record-Long Shutdown Continues
NOV 7, 2025
Afraid of the Dark: Sentiment Falters as Record-Long Shutdown Continues
This week, we explore the economic impact of the ongoing government shutdown, now in its 38th day, and its effect on labor market data and investor sentiment. Our experts discuss alternative employment indicators, strong Q3 earnings, and the influence of AI on market performance. They also examine the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on inflation and interest rate cuts amid data uncertainty. Finally, the conversation touches on the Supreme Court’s review of Trump-era tariffs and its potential implications for market volatility. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 02:09 – We analyze available data to fill in the gaps left by unpublished reports due to the ongoing government shutdown. We discuss labor statistics around unemployment, layoffs and job growth and vacancies.04:55 – The prolonged shutdown is dampening sentiment and creating uncertainty due to missing federal economic data.07:47 – In equities, we highlight upward momentum in the stock market amid strong earnings reports, while cautioning about speculative froth and a market pullback.11:45 – We explain the Fed’s dual mandate, inflation concerns, and how mixed signals are affecting bond yields and rate cut expectations.16:31 – We consider the legal review of Trump-era tariffs and how a ruling could impact Treasury issuance and market volatility.  Additional ResourcesKey QuestionsSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn
play-circle icon
22 MIN
Trick or Treat? Fed Slashes Rates but Future Uncertainty Dampens Spirits
NOV 3, 2025
Trick or Treat? Fed Slashes Rates but Future Uncertainty Dampens Spirits
Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management, joins the podcast to deliver a report on this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting; be sure to read her companion piece, “The Gentle Cut: Easing Without Euphoria” on our Weekly Investment Brief feed. Our discussion tracks how the equity and bond markets behaved leading up to, and following, the meeting, and what to expect going forward. We also touch on this week’s earnings reports from several big tech companies, and what positive trade talks between the United States and China might mean for the future. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyCynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio ManagementRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 01:30 – Expected reports on initial unemployment claims, GDP, and inflation were not published this week due to the ongoing government shutdown, which is on track to be the longest in history once it surpasses the 2018 record of 34 days.03:20 – Coverage of this week’s FOMC meeting, including the 25 basis point cut to the federal funds rate, two diametric dissents, the themes and opinions driving that decision, and Chair Powell’s warning that another rate cut in December is far from guaranteed as we see signs of a weakening labor market, elevated inflation, and a lack of data to make informed decisions due to the government shutdown.05:43 – In reaction to the FOMC meeting and Powell’s assertion that a December rate cut is less likely than previously expected, the markets experienced a bit of a reversal of recent gains that were driven by that expectation.07:43 – We discuss the five candidates that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed this week. They include three current and former Fed Governors, the current Director of the National Economic Council, and a BlackRock executive.10:03 – Q3 earnings reports continue to send the stock market higher. The reports from this week’s big companies were Amazon and Alphabet, which were both positive, Apple, which underwhelming but not bad, and Meta and Microsoft, which were both somewhat negative. 12:25 – Positive news from trade talks between the United States and China might reduce the elevated sentiment of geopolitical risk that hit the markets in the first few months of the year on tariff threats, and which has been a question mark ever since.14:58 – The fixed income market has seen some widening in credit spreads following the FOMC meeting, but generally positive credit conditions and future corporate bond issuance herald a robust November. Additional ResourcesRead: The Gentle Cut: Easing Without Euphoria – 10/29/2025 FOMC UpdateAsk: Key Questions: Active ETFs or Mutual Funds: Which Belongs in Your Portfolio?  Key QuestionsSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn
play-circle icon
19 MIN