Capital is ready — but the map is foggy. This week we break down the policy, rate, and regulatory crosswinds shaping real estate strategy, and why non-financial risks like immigration rules, housing supply constraints, and trade policy now sit beside cost of capital in every underwriting model.

Operators are splitting into three camps:

• Heavy Fog (defensive): preserving liquidity and slowing growth
• Patchy Fog (patient): watching rate signals and picking selective spots
• Clearing Fog (opportunistic): leaning in on timing, distress, and power availability

Where capital is actually going:

• Data centers dominate again as AI shifts the bottleneck from capital to megawatts.
• Senior housing is emerging as critical human infrastructure with boomers hitting 80, supply at record lows, and occupancy trending above 90%.
• Self-storage officially becomes the fifth major asset class, evolving into climate-controlled “utility space” and storage condos.
• Traditional sectors remain mixed: office continues to bifurcate, medical office stays resilient, multifamily tilts toward workforce and SFR, and industrial now battles costs and power constraints.

Demographics are the hidden driver. With 83% of recent U.S. population growth coming from net migration—and 30% of construction workers foreign-born—immigration policy is now a core economic variable. Climate migration reshuffles demand patterns, with both young adults and older movers rediscovering snowbelt markets.

On the operations front: agentic AI and property operating systems are pushing toward “self-driving buildings,” compressing lead-to-lease cycles, boosting conversions, and enabling centralized portfolios with decentralized on-site tech.

Market watch: Dallas–Fort Worth leads, Jersey City benefits from its proximity-cost edge, Brooklyn strengthens around creative office nodes, and Calgary rises alongside Canada’s purpose-built rental surge.

If this helped bring clarity to the fog, share it with a colleague and leave a quick review — it helps more investors navigate what comes next.