Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work

Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work

Magnificent Noise x Richard Kramer x Will Page

Overview
Episodes

Details

Bubble Trouble features conversations between economist and author Will Page and independent analyst Richard Kramer that lay out some inconvenient truths about how financial markets really work. Like the “boy who cried wolf,” financial markets have a peculiar tendency to repeat past mistakes and get themselves into “bubble trouble.” They party hard, drink too much of the Kool Aid, and wake up with a pounding hangover...only to do the same thing the next day. With tech dominating daily headlines and teenage traders driving stocks to unprecedented valuations, you might be asking “What’s really going on?” “What am I missing?” Imagine having a set of tour guides to tell you the “story behind the story” of the world’s largest tech companies, and how they bend - or break - the rules of economics.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Recent Episodes

Why Stocks Get Whacked
DEC 16, 2024
Why Stocks Get Whacked

When markets get fooled, stocks get …well, WHACKED, to quote a famous Kramerism. Our audience deserves to know more about volatility - for all the PhDs, MBAs and CFAs working on Wall Street, for all the compliance rules and regulations, why is it that a stock can go from hero to zero so quickly? Why is stability in itself destabilizing? [Repeat from May, 2024]


For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


Understanding Market Volatility: The Seven Deadly Sins That Get Stocks Whacked


In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosted by independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, the duo delves into the intricacies of stock market volatility and the factors that lead to significant drops in stock values, often referred to as getting 'whacked.' They explore why financial markets remain volatile despite compliance rules and thorough analysis by Wall Street's experts. Using recent examples like Duolingo and Double Verify, they highlight how sentiment, market expectations, and artificial intelligence fears influence stock performance. They introduce the concept of the seven deadly sins—ranging from expectations management to fake it till you make it—that companies and analysts commit, causing stocks to tank. The discussion covers essential themes like the role of credibility, influence of peer performance, external market factors, and the impact of fear and greed. They also touch on larger market dynamics, such as the dominance of tech giants and the influence of algorithmic trading. The episode is both an educational dive into market mechanics and a cautionary tale for investors, emphasizing the importance of understanding broader market sentiments and the potential pitfalls of speculative trading.


00:00 Introduction

01:18 Part One

02:30 Recent Examples of Stocks Getting Whacked

06:08 The Role of Expectations in Market Behavior

10:53 Credibility and Its Impact on Stocks

16:17 The Influence of Peer Groups and Market Share

18:19 Mathematical Models and Black Swans

23:09 Part Two

24:15 The Sheer Size of Companies and Market Impact

25:13 Big Companies and Revenue Growth Challenges

26:33 Market Dynamics and Money Managers

27:04 Thought Experiment: Market Crowding

28:53 Taxing Market Capitalization

34:18 Fear and Greed in Financial Markets

40:11 Unprofitable IPOs and Market Distortions

42:47 Seven Deadly Sins of Stock Trading

46:22 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

46:53 Credits




Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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47 MIN
How Much Is Copyright Worth?
DEC 9, 2024
How Much Is Copyright Worth?

In the last couple episodes, we've looked at the property market, we've looked at the demise of Credit Suisse, but now we're gonna go one-on-one with Will Page, talking about his latest work: How much is copyright worth and the way in which music is having its own, getting back at cinema.


For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, Richard Kramer and economist Will Page dive into the fascinating world of music copyright. They explore the market value, currently pegged at $45.5 billion, and discuss what this number entails, including the roles of record labels, collecting societies, and publishers. They delve deep into the growing significance of vinyl records, the influence of streaming services, and the striking impact of globalization on music trade flows. Additionally, they discuss new market opportunities, the potential for further growth, and the future of direct artist-to-fan engagements. Join the conversation to understand the changing dynamics of the music industry and the economic forces shaping it.


00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

00:35 Part One

01:10 Exploring the Value of Copyright

02:23 The Economics of Music Copyright

07:12 Streaming vs. Cinema: A Shift in Consumption

17:08 The Vinyl Revival

19:31 Part Two

19:31 Global Impact of Music Copyright

22:32 The Global Impact of Reggaeton

22:47 Economic Disparities in Music Streaming

23:25 The Big Mac Index and Media Trade

24:50 K-Pop's Global Dominance

26:20 The Role of Government in Music Industry Success

28:36 Canada's Multicultural Music Scene

30:06 The Rise of Punjabi-Canadian Artists

33:12 The Future of Music Copyright and Streaming

37:41 Direct Artist-to-Fan Relationships

40:50 Emerging Markets and the Future of Copyright

41:51 Conclusion and Future Episodes




Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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42 MIN
Learning From A Doer: A Conversation with Roger Madelin
DEC 2, 2024
Learning From A Doer: A Conversation with Roger Madelin

Today we are going deep with a real creator. No, not one of the avatars of AI influencers in the creator economy, but someone who builds things that take 20 years to complete, Roger Madelin, CBE, the name behind the scenes in making London's Kings Cross a reality.


For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

Transformation and Challenges with King's Cross Visionary Roger Madeline


In this episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into urban development with Roger Madelin, CBE. Known for his transformative work at London's King's Cross, Roger shares insights on large-scale urban projects, navigating economic cycles, and the intricacies of aligning diverse stakeholders' interests. The discussion also covers the controversial HS2 rail project, the importance of integrating cultural elements in city planning, and the current political landscape influencing housing policies. Roger emphasizes the need for a strong vision, the significance of public spaces, and the necessity of balancing private and public sector efforts to create vibrant, inclusive urban environments.


00:00 Introduction

00:48 Part One

02:16 Transforming King's Cross

03:56 Reflecting on Urban Development

05:48 The Impact of Smartening Up Train Stations

08:45 Navigating Economic Cycles in Urban Projects

15:20 The Future of Workspaces Post-COVID

20:09 Balancing Luxury and Community in Property Development

24:48 Preview of Part Two: HS2 and Urban Planning Challenges

25:34 Part Two

26:50 Challenges of High-Speed Rail in the UK

29:43 The Flaws in High-Speed Two's Business Case

32:08 Comparing High-Speed One and High-Speed Two

34:00 The Importance of Comfort Over Speed

36:03 The Role of Arts and Culture in City Development

42:09 Political and Economic Challenges in Urban Development

52:24 Closing Remarks and Reflections

53:17 Credits





Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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53 MIN
The Meltdown of Credit Suisse w/ Duncan Mavin
NOV 25, 2024
The Meltdown of Credit Suisse w/ Duncan Mavin

On Bubble Trouble, we are never short of subject matter: from the metaverse, NFTs and Chinese real estate, to Silicon Valley Bank and er… that small issue of a former global powerhouse Credit Suisse. Remember them? Well our guest, Duncan Mavin, knows their story better than anyone, and he’s documented them in the wonderfully titled Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze and the Collapse of Credit Suisse. 


For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


Credit Suisse: A Rolling Crisis in Banking Scandals


In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer discuss the collapse of Credit Suisse with journalist and author Duncan Maven. They delve into Maven's book 'Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze, and the Collapse of Credit Suisse,' exploring the myriad of crises that plagued the bank. They touch on scandals ranging from rogue traders and sanctions busting to laundering Nazi gold and funding corrupt projects in Mozambique. The conversation also highlights the rapid acquisition of Credit Suisse by UBS over a tense and decisive weekend. Duncan Maven provides insights into the bank’s culture, the broader implications for the banking sector, and why people should care about the ethics in banking. The episode concludes with the discussion of warning signs (or smoke signals) that indicate deeper issues within financial institutions.


00:00 Introduction

01:00 Part One

01:09 Guest Introduction: Duncan Maven

02:31 The Rise and Fall of Credit Suisse

03:32 The Impact of White Collar Crime

05:08 Cultural Issues at Credit Suisse

09:56 Historical Context of Swiss Banking

15:21 The Mozambique Scandal

19:49 The Role of Social Media in Credit Suisse's Collapse

23:00 The Bulgarian Mafia and Credit Suisse Scandal

23:47 Part Two

23:54 The Collapse of Credit Suisse

24:32 UBS Absorbs Credit Suisse

26:41 The Aftermath and Lingering Scandals

28:57 The Swiss Financial Crisis

32:58 The Future of Swiss Banking

40:05 Reception of the Book

42:08 Smoke Signals and Final Thoughts

46:37 Credits




Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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47 MIN
Fiscal Drag Queen
NOV 18, 2024
Fiscal Drag Queen

This week, we’re talking taxes. Don’t switch off, don’t fall asleep and please don’t hire an accountant as the next 45 minutes will defy the laws of gravity and make taxes sexy. Or make saxes testy…  [Repeat from March, 2024.]


Mentioned in today’s show: Barbarians at the Gate: https://youtu.be/Z3HiONtjZSM?si=xZ64zb46sYIfSs5Z


For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the complex world of taxes with humor and depth. They discuss the UK's tax system, the incentives it creates, and its contribution to economic inequalities. The duo delves into the problems of the tax code, including issues surrounding tax avoidance by the wealthy, lack of public sector productivity improvements, and the inefficiencies within the HMRC. Kramer and Page critique the approach of privatizing public utilities and the potential problems with private equity in the public sector. They also touch on broader issues like the lack of investment in tax authority systems and propose using tax policies for positive changes, like encouraging the shift from petrol to electric cars in Denmark. Through their insightful conversation, Kramer and Page aim to demystify taxes and highlight their significant impact on society.


00:00 Introduction

00:46 Part One

00:51 The UK's Budget Week and Tax System Insights

01:48 Tax Evasion vs. Public Sector Productivity

02:46 The Inequality of Tax Codes: A Global Issue

04:03 Tax System Flaws and Their Impact on Society

07:22 VAT: The Taxpayer as Tax Collector

11:31 The Complexity of National Insurance

13:43 Simplifying Tax Systems: A Call for Transparency

16:28 Private Equity and Tax Systems: A New Challenge

22:39 Decoding the Fiscal Drag Queen

23:00 The Political Divide on Taxation

23:21 Economic Lecture: Tax Burden and Growth

25:07 The Impact of Fiscal Drag on Tax Bands

26:15 The Surprising Windfall from Fiscal Drag

27:22 Part Two

27:45 Exploring the World of Private Equity

28:51 The Tax Loopholes Fueling Private Equity

32:24 The Potential Bubble in Public Utilities

36:26 The Disconnect Between Tax Policy and Reality

43:58 A Positive Tax Example from Denmark

47:28 Credits




Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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47 MIN