Global Research Unlocked

Year ahead themes and where we could be wrong Earlier this month, BofA Global Research published a note with 10 of the key views outlined in 2026 macro Year Ahead reports. This podcast features seven strategists and economists discussing certain of those themes and offering the primary risks to the views that they foresee. We start with our view on U.S. growth, where we're more bullish than consensus, then offer support for that optimism with a take on why we don't yet see an AI bubble. We then discuss our constructive outlook for emerging markets but our more muted view on the S&P 500. We offer our take on why it's important for policymakers to keep inflation down and what that means for bonds, share our official view on the 10Y and finish with what all of that means for U.S. housing.    You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Ralf Preusser is joined in discussion by Adarsh Sinha and Mark Cabana. We will review the outlook for US rates and the US dollar after this week's FOMC meeting. We also analyse the motivation and implications behind the Fed’s new Reserve Management Purchases. Finally, we will also discuss the dramatic repricing of the policy outlook for the RBA, preview next week's BoJ meeting and outline our views on GBP.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Solar, Storage, and Nuclear: The Next Clean Tech Wave Surging AI demand is creating volatility and speed-to-power challenges, while grid delays push onsite generation forward. Our Clean Tech Symposium highlighted a major shift in data center power strategies, with the percentage of facilities using onsite gas potentially doubling in the short term. But, its role as bridge vs. temporary depends on economics: transmission and distribution (T&D) spend >$100B annually and pricing trends closer to $6/MMBtu. Solar-plus-storage remains highly cost-competitive with battery prices down 40-50%, reinforcing its position in future portfolios. Nuclear small modular reactors (SMRs) are progressing with faster timelines, though commercialization is years away and cost certainty remains low. Power availability is now shaping data center site selection, where Dimple sees solar + storage and nuclear as complementary long-term solutions.    You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Mark Capleton (Global Head of Inflation Linked Strategy) and Meghan Swiber (Senior US Rates Strategist) join for a discussion on what to expect for inflation markets next year. In the US, we see value in real yield with inflation is still above Fed target and cuts expected. Cross market, we think the spread between Euro and US inflation priced too low.     Disclosure: You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Overall spending remains resilient, lux. spend rebounding David Tinsley, Senior Economist at the Bank of America Institute (not part of BofA Global Research) joins to discuss the latest Institute employment and spend data. The Institute data suggests payroll growth held steady in Sep and Oct, though it has clearly slowed since early 2025. David offers detail and discusses the stories beneath the headlines including wage growth gaps between lower and higher income earners. And while certain discretionary categories are weak, especially with lower income consumers, Ashley Wallace discusses the different story around US luxury spend which rebounded to high single digit growth in October, led by fashion and jewelry. We discuss the role that the stock market trajectory could play in the sustainability of spend and non-macro factors that could impact luxury   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.