Super-Spiked Podcast

<p><strong>WATCH</strong> the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (<a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/@super-spiked">here</a>).</p><p><strong>STREAM</strong> audio only on Apple Podcasts (<a target="_blank" href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/super-spiked-podcast/id1599740437">here</a>), Spotify (<a target="_blank" href="https://open.spotify.com/show/1qNFqvxdZUR1UXkDmDQXl2?si=57a15fbc810740c6">here</a>), or your favorite podcast player app.</p><p><strong>DOWNLOAD</strong> a pdf of a moderately edited transcript using the blue Download button below. There is no PowerPoint slide deck this week.</p><p>This week we introduce the topic of how to think about energy equity valuations given a Geopolitical Super Vol macro backdrop. Traditional valuation metrics like EV/EBITDA are likely to prove especially unhelpful at a time of major geopolitical uncertainty and commodity volatility. We harken back to the framework we used in the early 2010s for US refiners when Brent-WTI first blew out to around $20/bbl when surging shale oil production unexpectedly filled up pipelines and infrastructure. At the time, investors treated every press release of a contemplated pipeline reversal as solving the bottleneck. Spreads did ultimately narrow meaningfully, as expected, but the transient “above normal” cash flows were not worth zero as the market was initially ascribing. Our framework gave “one-time” credit to temporary cash flows and full credit for our estimate of mid-cycle earnings. This is not a perfect analogy for a geopolitical event like the Strait of Hormuz, but we think the framework is a good one for this environment. </p><p><strong>📜 Credits</strong></p><p>* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: <em>Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato</em>.</p><p>* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.</p><p><strong>⚖️Disclaimer</strong></p><p>I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.</p><p><p>Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com..</p></p><p></p><p></p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://arjunmurti.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_1">arjunmurti.substack.com</a>

<p><strong>WATCH</strong> the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (<a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/@super-spiked">here</a>).</p><p><strong>STREAM</strong> audio only on Apple Podcasts (<a target="_blank" href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/super-spiked-podcast/id1599740437">here</a>), Spotify (<a target="_blank" href="https://open.spotify.com/show/1qNFqvxdZUR1UXkDmDQXl2?si=57a15fbc810740c6">here</a>), or your favorite podcast player app.</p><p><strong>DOWNLOAD</strong> a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.</p><p>This is the 100th <em>Super-Spiked</em> video podcast. We’ve also had an additional 114 written posts that for no obvious reason we account for with its own numbering system, a point that we are sure is of interest to no one and we will merge going forward in case you are wondering why we’ll jump to #215 next week. In celebration of our 100th episode, we recorded this a week early ahead of a guy’s golf trip to Scotland, where we’ll be playing Turnberry, Prestwick, Royal Troon, and Western Gailes. 8 rounds in 5 days is way to ambitious for a bunch of guys in their upper 50s. More on that in the On A Personal Note at the end of this video. </p><p>Our key focus this week will be discussing how we think the world should think about energy macro scenarios. It should not surprise anyone that we do not believe the world will go back to viewing CO2 as an organizing principle for energy. We have been asked if not “net zero” then what? We attempt to answer that question this week. We start off by taking a look at the key themes from 2022 at the start of <em>Super-Spiked</em>. Those initial themes have stood the test of time. </p><p>This 100th episode is targeted at a combination of corporate executives, board members, policy people, and the macro economics and sustainability people within companies. It’s probably not for everyone, but that has been one of our philosophies. We are not looking to maximize views of <em>Super-Spiked</em>. We hope it will be accessible to everyone, but this one in particular is aimed at a smaller subset of key decision makers. </p><p>0:00 Introduction</p><p>2:06 Our Key Themes from 2022 Have Stood the Test of Time</p><p>11:40 Won’t Net Zero Make a Comeback in 2028?</p><p>17:31 If Not Net Zero, Then What?</p><p>21:46 How Should Energy Macro Scenarios Be Reframed? </p><p>23:30 On A Personal Note</p><p><strong>📜 Credits</strong></p><p>* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: <em>Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato</em>.</p><p>* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.</p><p><strong>⚖️Disclaimer</strong></p><p>I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.</p><p><p>Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com.</p></p><p></p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://arjunmurti.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_1">arjunmurti.substack.com</a>

<p><strong>WATCH</strong> the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (<a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/@super-spiked">here</a>).</p><p><strong>STREAM</strong> audio only on Apple Podcasts (<a target="_blank" href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/super-spiked-podcast/id1599740437">here</a>), Spotify (<a target="_blank" href="https://open.spotify.com/show/1qNFqvxdZUR1UXkDmDQXl2?si=57a15fbc810740c6">here</a>), or your favorite podcast player app.</p><p><strong>DOWNLOAD</strong> a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.</p><p>This week we have some quick comments on a trio of topics including (1) macro risk/reward at the two-month anniversary of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, (2) UAE’s decision to withdraw from OPEC, and (3) the attractiveness of Canada for energy investment. All these themes fit well within our Geopolitical Super Vol theme. </p><p>0:00 Introduction </p><p>0:42 Macro risk/reward at the 2-month anniversary of the Strait of Hormuz being closed </p><p>8:27 UAE’s decision to withdraw from OPEC </p><p>13:08 The attractiveness of Canada for energy investment. </p><p>17:45 On A Personal Note</p><p><p>Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com.</p></p><p><strong>📜 Credits</strong></p><p>* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: <em>Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato</em>.</p><p>* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.</p><p><strong>⚖️Disclaimer</strong></p><p>I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.</p><p><p>Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com.</p></p><p></p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://arjunmurti.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_1">arjunmurti.substack.com</a>

<p><strong><em>We are now recording an audio summary of written posts that we will upload to Apple, Spotify, and YouTube and you can listen to by clicking the button below.</em></strong></p><p>This week we expand on the Energy Technology component of our Geopolitical Super Vol framework we introduced last week (<a target="_blank" href="https://arjunmurti.substack.com/p/ep98-a-new-era-of-geopolitical-super">here</a>). The massive unmet energy needs of the other seven billion people on Earth were already driving investment in new energy technologies in particular for countries not blessed with sufficient domestic resources like crude oil, natural gas, or coal. A backdrop of structurally increased geopolitical uncertainty and turmoil, in particular amongst the largest economies in the world, will drive a doubling, tripling, and quadrupling down on a wide swath of new technologies that help meet energy needs. For The Lucky 1 Billion of Us, there is a need to invest in the technologies that allow our industries to compete in a host a new areas and to no longer simply cede all manufacturing to China and other Asian countries—as the U.S. and Western Europe have done over the past 25 years.</p><p>The new technology areas we are most interested in span four broad buckets:</p><p>* Grid optimization and enhancement</p><p>* Power generation</p><p>* Demand diversification opportunities, which encompasses areas like EVs (electric vehicles), LNG (liquefied natural gas) trucks, and energy efficiency</p><p>* Manufacturing and industrial competitiveness via physical AI, robotics, and automation</p><p>In this post we:</p><p>* differentiate between “Energy Tech,” which we believe has a very favorable outlook, and “Climate Tech,” the latter of which always seemed non-sensical to us.</p><p>* highlight the key areas we are watching most closely within the new technology buckets noted above.</p><p>* provide a progress report on hyperscaler profitability given the massive ramp in CAPEX seen by those companies.</p><p>* highlight Aramco as an AI and technology leader.</p><p>The opportunity for investment spans a broad spectrum of companies, technologies, and regions across a range of sectors including technology, industrials, traditional energy, new energies, power, infrastructure, metals, minerals, and mining. In a nutshell, Energy & Power + Technology + Industrials + Metals & Materials convergence.</p><p>For all Super-Spiked content, follow me at <a target="_blank" href="https://arjunmurti.substack.com">https://arjunmurti.substack.com</a> or at <a target="_blank" href="https://veriten.com">https://veriten.com</a>.</p><p>X (Twitter): @ArjunNMurti </p><p>DISCLAIMER</p><p>My views are my own and not attributable to any current or past affiliation.</p><p>CREDITS</p><p>Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman on Apple Music: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.</p><p>This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://arjunmurti.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_1">arjunmurti.substack.com</a>

<p><strong>WATCH</strong> the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (<a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/@super-spiked">here</a>).</p><p><strong>STREAM</strong> audio only on Apple Podcasts (<a target="_blank" href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/super-spiked-podcast/id1599740437">here</a>), Spotify (<a target="_blank" href="https://open.spotify.com/show/1qNFqvxdZUR1UXkDmDQXl2?si=57a15fbc810740c6">here</a>), or your favorite podcast player app.</p><p><strong>DOWNLOAD</strong> a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.</p><p>As we teased in last week’s video, we want to expand on the evolution of our Super Vol commodity macro framework to explicitly rebrand it Geopolitical Super Vol. Since Russia-Ukraine, we have resisted the super-cycle framing that we think implies a smoothness to an upcycle like seen during the 2000s China-BRICs expansion period. The current environment is more like the 1970s—arguably a super-cycle, but one with a lot more choppiness and stress along the way. The current decade is shaping up to be a modern version of that era, with some important differences.</p><p>Although we are calling it Geopolitical Super Vol, we want to be clear on a few conclusions:</p><p>* We believe structural profitability and opportunities for growth are significant for a broad range of companies involved in traditional energy, new energy technology, the power value chain, and a host of raw materials.</p><p>* We believe the corresponding S&P 500 weighting for these sectors will increase meaningfully in the decade ahead.</p><p>* It is the inevitable sharp economic downturns along the way that motivates us sticking with and evolving the Super Vol language. You can’t demand that which does not exist—and that means sharp commodity spikes will be met with similarly sharp pullbacks during this era.</p><p>0:00 Introduction</p><p>2:41 A Break from The 1980-2020 World View</p><p>6:22 Implications for Energy Sector</p><p>10:48 Investing in Energy, Power, and Materials</p><p>14:44 Obliterating Pre-Iran Views</p><p>16:36 Obliterating Pre-Pre-Iran Views</p><p>18:53 Be Wary of Perma Bulls and Perma Bears</p><p>20:36 Be Wary of Net Zero Rebranded</p><p>21:58 Energy’s Natural Hierarch of Needs Remains Our North Star</p><p>22:39 FAQ #1: How do we think about global recession risk?</p><p>24:38 FAQ #2: What are lessons learned from the Asia Financial Crisis of 1997-9?</p><p>27:15 FAQ #3: What does the traditional energy profitability cycle look like in Geopolitical Super Vol?</p><p>28:51-32:10 On A Personal Note: Feedback vs Pushback</p><p><p>Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com..</p></p><p><strong>📜 Credits</strong></p><p>* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: <em>Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato</em>.</p><p>* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.</p><p><strong>⚖️Disclaimer</strong></p><p>I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.</p><p></p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://arjunmurti.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_1">arjunmurti.substack.com</a>