Liberty's Highlights

<p>The annual tradition continues!</p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.scuttleblurb.com/">David Kim</a> (💚💚💚💚💚 🥃) and I look back at the past year, both for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.scuttleblurb.com/">Scuttleblurb</a> and for the world of finance & markets. We use David’s excellent ‘<a target="_blank" href="https://www.scuttleblurb.com/update-25/">2025 business update</a>’ as a foundation for our chat, and I encourage you to read it.</p><p>We cover a lot of ground. David’s unusually candid look at the business of running a paid newsletter (subscriber churn, the tension between writing what interests you and writing what gets clicks, and why he almost renamed his blog “Fallen Angels”), the tactical changes he made to turn things around (frequency, the Scuttlebits format, a price increase that went better than expected), and his partnership with our common friend <a target="_blank" href="https://www.mbi-deepdives.com/">MBI</a> (🇧🇩🇺🇸) on the <a target="_blank" href="https://open.spotify.com/show/3Fdub8zkhm4xwN1ZcDbv1j">Never Sell podcast</a> (🎧).</p><p>On the <strong>markets and investing side</strong>, we dig into:</p><p>* The <strong>weird vibe of 2025</strong>: indices hiding a lot of pain underneath, with good companies down 40-50% while the index barely fell.</p><p>* Why investors seem blind to <strong>cyclicality</strong> in ways they weren’t 20 years ago (Trex at 65x peak earnings vs. home builders at single-digit multiples in ‘05-’06).</p><p>* The <strong>beaten-down compounder opportunity</strong>, and how fast some of those names recovered.</p><p>* The <strong>AI pain trade rotating into SaaS and data providers</strong> (Gartner, FactSet, S&P, Thomson Reuters), and why the bear case on <strong>Gartner</strong> may be missing something important.</p><p>* David’s forensic breakdown of <strong>how Shift Four calculates organic growth</strong>, including cross-selling synergies from acquisitions in ways most acquirers don’t, and why the sell-side comparisons to payment peers aren’t apples-to-apples.</p><p>* <strong>Booz Allen</strong> and the frenemy dynamics with <strong>Palantir</strong>/<strong>Anduril</strong>. The write-up almost nobody read but David is most proud of.</p><p>* How <strong>competitive boundaries between industries are getting blurrier</strong>, including for <strong>Big Tech</strong>, and what that means for moat analysis</p><p>* David’s nuanced take on using <strong>AI tools for research</strong>, where it levels you up vs. where the “knowledge illusion” kicks in and de-skilling becomes a real risk.</p><p>We also talk about what’s next in his research pipeline (<strong>Veeve</strong>, <strong>U-Haul</strong>, <strong>Lamb Weston</strong>, <strong>S&P</strong>, <strong>Moody’s</strong>, <strong>Thomson Reuters</strong>, etc), and whether <strong>Pluribus</strong> can stick the landing in season two.</p><p>I hope you enjoy listening as much as I enjoyed talking to David! 💚 🥃</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://www.libertyrpf.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_2">www.libertyrpf.com/subscribe</a>

<p>This is a massive one! Nearly two hours, but you know what they say: <em>Too much of a good thing can be wonderful!</em></p><p>My friend <a target="_blank" href="https://www.mbi-deepdives.com/">MBI</a> (🇧🇩🇺🇸) and I sat down to do something that sounds simple but turned out to be a seminar. In 2018, Apple  became the first $1T company. Fast forward to now, and we’re living in the era of the <strong>Trillion Dollar Club</strong>, a small group of companies that collectively represent an almost comical amount of market cap (Nvidia, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, TSMC, Meta, Broadcom, and Tesla).</p><p>We went through all of them one by one and shared our honest thoughts, bouncing between the big picture and small details that may turn out to be crucial.</p><p>If the market is a card game, we wanted to figure out which hands we like best. ♥️♦️♣️♠️</p><p>We touched on many interesting ideas that help better understand the forces at play for Big Tech these days. Early on, we dive into the “compute theory of everything.” MBI found this 1998 Hans Moravec paper with a sentence so good he repeats it to himself like a mantra on his daily walks! 🚶‍♂️(<em>gotta get those 10k steps! </em>👣)</p><p>Among many other things, we discuss:</p><p>* Jensen’s “circular financing” strategy, and why it might actually be brilliant 🔄</p><p>* East Coast vs. West Coast investing philosophy.</p><p>* Why the job of the analyst is getting <em>harder</em>, not easier.</p><p>* How academic papers create trillions in value (cat paper, “Attention is All You Need,” Chinchilla).</p><p>* Apple as “Switzerland,” and their risky bet that we’re at the hardware end-state 📱</p><p>* Whether Google has the best hand but keeps getting in its own way, and DeepMind as Google's "reverse takeover" and saving grace</p><p>* Why Microsoft seemed to have everything and somehow ended up in the doghouse 💾</p><p>* TSMC as the true choke point, the bottom of the inverted pyramid, and why MBI is Zen about geopolitical risk 🧘‍♂️</p><p>* Meta’s confusing inability to reach the frontier despite checking every box, and what are the necessary ingredients for a frontier AI lab? 🧑‍🍳🍜</p><p>* Tesla as the ultimate “West Coast philosophy” stock and Musk’s loss of interest in EVs.</p><p>* Broadcom’s IP blocks + custom ASIC enablement + networking… with the risk of hyperscaler disintermediation.</p><p>* Amazon's retail business being underestimated and Walmart as a sneakily smart company 🛒</p><p>* A tribute to Buffett and Munger, where our emotions come out a bit.</p><p>* Which CEOs are overrated and underrated? 👍👎</p><p>We close with the hardest question: if you could own only one of these companies for the next 20 years, which would it be? We both landed on the same answer. Listen to the end to find out why 🎧</p><p>Make sure to check out <a target="_blank" href="https://www.mbi-deepdives.com/">MBI Deep Dives</a>, now with daily updates!</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://www.libertyrpf.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_2">www.libertyrpf.com/subscribe</a>

<p>You love reading. You’re always looking for great things to read? 📖 📚</p><p>Me too! *<em>high five</em>* 🙏</p><p>Today, I’m talking with my friends <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/TinkeredThinker">Tinkered Thinking</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/DylanoA4">Dylan O’Sullivan</a> about ‘<a target="_blank" href="https://www.infinitebooks.com/books/products/white-mirror"><em>White Mirror</em></a>’, a book written by the former, edited by the latter, and published by OSV’s <a target="_blank" href="https://www.infinitebooks.com/books/products/white-mirror">Infinite Books</a> (<em>full disclosure: I was involved in the publication of this book, but we wanted to publish it because it’s great, we don’t think it’s great because we published it. The order matters!</em>).</p><p>It’s a wide-ranging conversation aimed at those who HAVEN’T yet read the book, so don’t worry. We go down all kinds of rabbit holes 🐇 and tangents, including:</p><p>* From a tweet to 31 stories, the wild origin of <em>White Mirror</em></p><p>* The intersection of technology & human experience</p><p>* Reclaiming childlike imagination and a sense of wonder as an antidote to pessimism</p><p>* Simulation theory, meditation, and the nature of reality</p><p>* Literary architecture and chiastic structures</p><p>* Predictions in the book that are coming true, and startup ideas hidden in the stories</p><p>* The craft of writing fiction vs. non-fiction</p><p>* Status games, adulthood, and missing rituals and rites of passage</p><p>* Writing science fiction as someone who doesn’t read much scifi</p><p>* …and much more</p><p>🏆 Giveaway: 5 Signed Copies of White Mirror! 🪞📚✍️</p><p>Thanks to Tinkered’s generosity, I’m giving away <strong>five signed copies of </strong><strong><em>White Mirror</em></strong>. If you want to participate, the instructions are simple:</p><p>* <strong>If you’re a paid supporter</strong> and are interested, send me an email to let me know you’d like one (you can just reply to any of the newsletter emails or this podcast email). <strong>Send this before December 1, 2025 at 11:59 PM EST</strong>. That’s it.</p><p>* On <strong>December 3, 2025,</strong> I’ll draw names out of a hat, or buy one of those bingo machines with the balls bouncing around, or use randomizing software, whatever, and <strong>pick 5 winners</strong>. When you win, I’ll email you to ask for shipping details.</p><p>* <strong>If you’re NOT yet a paid supporter, but would like to become one before December 1, no problem</strong>, you can participate. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.libertyrpf.com/subscribe"><strong>Hit the subscribe button</strong></a>, and then drop me an email that mentions you’re interested in the signed book (<em>I’ll also send you a link to the private Discord and to Zoom Q&As I do with supporters</em>).</p><p>There aren’t that many of you, and not all will enter, so <strong>if you do put your name in the hat 🎟️ 🎩 your odds of getting a signed book are </strong><strong><em>very good</em></strong>.</p><p>But you don’t have to wait for that to buy it. And if you win, just keep the signed copy and give the regular one to someone else. 🎁</p><p>🛒 Best Place to Buy the Book 👇</p><p>You can <a target="_blank" href="https://www.amazon.com/White-Mirror-Stories-Deluxe-Paperback/dp/1964378036">buy </a><a target="_blank" href="https://www.amazon.com/White-Mirror-Stories-Deluxe-Paperback/dp/1964378036"><em>White Mirror</em></a><a target="_blank" href="https://www.amazon.com/White-Mirror-Stories-Deluxe-Paperback/dp/1964378036"> on Amazon</a>, but the real pro move is to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.infinitebooks.com/books/products/white-mirror">get it from Infinite Books</a> because, for the same price, you get the <strong>deluxe paperback of the book + the audiobook + the ebook (DRM-free)</strong>.</p><p>The book is a beautiful artifact, we spent a ton of time obsessing over the details. 🔍</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://www.libertyrpf.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_2">www.libertyrpf.com/subscribe</a>

<p>One of my very favorite annual traditions is conducting this interview with my friend <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/scuttleblurb">David Kim</a>, aka <a target="_blank" href="https://www.scuttleblurb.com/">Scuttleblurb</a> (🕵📝).</p><p>His investment research journal/company deep dives/business explorations were a key inspiration for this 🚢 steamboat. While the format is different, I hope there are similarities in the spirit. And I <em>know</em> that he has influenced and inspired many others — especially the good ones!</p><p>In our conversation this year — <em>the fifth one!</em> — we explore <strong>the State of Scuttleblurb 📊</strong>, <strong>his analyses of key industries and companies from the past year 🏭</strong>, and <strong>our perspective on the market looking back at 2024 and heading into 2025 🔮</strong>. We also discuss the <strong>evolution of his research process and the new tools he's adopted 🛠️</strong>.</p><p>I hope you enjoy listening as much as I enjoyed having the conversation!</p><p><em>Photo: David and </em><a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/scuttleblurb/status/1869052623539900668"><em>his brother Rich</em></a><em>.</em></p><p>If you missed them, here are the previous four annual interviews I did with David:</p><p>* 📄 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.libertyrpf.com/p/interview-with-david-kim-aka-scuttleblurb">Interview with David Kim a.k.a. Scuttleblurb (2020)</a></p><p>* 📄 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.libertyrpf.com/p/interview-with-david-kim-aka-scuttleblurb-2fb">Interview with David Kim a.k.a. Scuttleblurb (2022)</a></p><p>* 🎧 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.libertyrpf.com/p/interview-with-david-kim-aka-scuttleblurb-336">Interview with David Kim a.k.a. Scuttleblurb (2023)</a></p><p>* 📄 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.libertyrpf.com/p/interview-with-david-kim-aka-scuttleblurb-5f7">Interview with David Kim a.k.a. Scuttleblurb (2024)</a></p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://www.libertyrpf.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_2">www.libertyrpf.com/subscribe</a>

<p>Mark Nelson is back for Part 2!</p><p>(If you missed it, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.libertyrpf.com/p/mark-nelson-how-ai-is-forcing-big">here’s part 1</a>)</p><p>Another wide-ranging conversation: We discuss the <strong>implications of the new U.S. administration on energy policy</strong>, particularly focusing on <strong>Chris Wright, the incoming Secretary of Energy</strong>.</p><p>We explore <strong>Wright’s background in the oil and gas industry</strong>, his connections to the nuclear sector through <strong>his board position at Oklo</strong>, and what his appointment might mean for both conventional and <strong>advanced nuclear power in America</strong>.</p><p>We also get into the dynamics between different energy sources, including the <strong>relationship between nuclear power and electric vehicles, the future of LNG exports, and the complex economics of oil and gas production</strong>.</p><p>Don’t miss the under-discussed <strong>love story (💞) between nuclear and batteries</strong>. ☢️🔋</p><p>We also touch on recent regulatory challenges facing <strong>Big Tech companies’ nuclear power initiatives</strong> and how the energy landscape might evolve in the coming years.</p><p>We close with w<strong>hy it’s time to build (again)</strong>. 🏗️ ⚛️ 🚧👷‍♂️🛠️</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://www.libertyrpf.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_2">www.libertyrpf.com/subscribe</a>