Jason Kelly Intelligence

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit <a href="https://jasonkelly.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_7">jasonkelly.substack.com</a><br/><br/><p>Full report read by Jason Kelly.</p><p>To follow along and see the charts, please open the <a target="_blank" href="https://jasonkelly.substack.com/p/designing-an-ai-resilient-career"><strong>written report</strong></a>.</p>

<p>What are “Zero-Validity” forecasters, and why should you ignore them?</p><p>In this <strong>9-min video</strong>, I use Robert Kiyosaki’s latest warning as a case study, alongside a nearly identical call he made in 2022 urging investors into gold, silver, and crypto just before a strong stock-market advance.</p><p>At both moments, our system was buying and went on to post market-beating results.</p><p>This video shows why forecasts fail in an unknowable market. A rules-based approach, grounded in history, consistently outperforms guesswork.</p><p>We don’t win by predicting. We win with a schedule, rules, and arithmetic.</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://jasonkelly.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_2">jasonkelly.substack.com/subscribe</a>

<p>Stocks dropped fast in March. Headlines turned sharply bearish. Goldman Sachs warned of a potential 20%+ decline. Commentators pointed to oil shocks, rising rates, and recession risks.</p><p>Paying attention to all that led investors astray.</p><p>In this <strong>16-minute video</strong>, I walk through the Nasdaq Composite year-to-date through April 16, 2026, exactly where the headlines told you to panic versus where our rules told us to gear up, and what happened next (spoiler: the market erased its Iran war losses in weeks).</p><p>If you followed the news, you probably sat it out. If you followed a schedule and predefined rules, you’re already in new profit territory.</p><p>And, believe it or not, the pundits are already warning again. The lesson never changes: adhere to a methodology, follow a schedule, ignore the headlines.</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://jasonkelly.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_2">jasonkelly.substack.com/subscribe</a>

<p>A week ago, the market “knew” the Iran war would escalate.</p><p>Days later, it “knew” a ceasefire was coming.</p><p>In between, investors were told to be “nimble,” “agile,” and ready for anything—none of which translates into an actual investment decision.</p><p>In this <strong>9-minute video</strong>, I walk through that sequence using <em>Barron’s</em>, <em>Bloomberg</em>, and <em>The Wall Street Journal</em>. The conclusion is straightforward:</p><p>Nobody knew what was going to happen.</p><p>We didn’t either. But we didn’t need to.</p><p>Our plans had a scheduled action on April 6. Prices were down. The rules said buy. We executed.</p><p>That’s the difference between a process and a guess.</p><p>If you rely on headlines, you’re always reacting after the fact. If you rely on rules, you’re already positioned when the turn comes.</p><p>See our performance at <a target="_blank" href="http://jasonkelly.com">jasonkelly.com</a></p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://jasonkelly.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_2">jasonkelly.substack.com/subscribe</a>

<p>Market volatility has been intense heading into our first-quarter signals at the Kelly Letter. We’ve seen a mix of panic and FOMO, with the Nasdaq 100 jumping 3.4% just yesterday.</p><p>In this <strong>9-min video</strong>, I cover why sticking to our system matters more than reacting to daily headlines, especially when events are this unpredictable.</p><p>I encourage all subscribers to sync with the letter this weekend and try out our improved calculator to stay on track. Our plans are built to thrive in stretches like this.</p><p>If you’re not yet a subscriber, you can learn more here:</p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://jasonkelly.com">https://jasonkelly.com</a></p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://jasonkelly.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_2">jasonkelly.substack.com/subscribe</a>