TheOnePoint

John Rikhtegar of RBCx has been dissecting the venture ecosystem with surgeon-level precision lately.Two of his recent analyses — on GP-LP alignment and VC-backed IPOs — pull back the curtain on where real returns (and misalignments) hide.Takeaways:▪️ The Alignment Mirage→ “Even if you have perfect alignment, it doesn’t guarantee success.”Small funds look better aligned — lower fees, higher carry exposure — but alignment alone doesn’t produce outperformance. Only 1 in 20 funds (top 5%) actually hit the mythical 3x net. For most LPs, that’s a sobering recalibration.▪️ Fee Math vs. Fund Math→ A $50M fund with 2% fees earns $10M in guaranteed income over 10 years.A $500M fund? $100M.The large fund could underperform and still make partners rich. That’s the structural irony John highlights — wealth certainty grows as performance risk shrinks.▪️ The Power Law Follows You→ “The same power law that defines venture private markets continues after IPO.”John analyzed 414 North American VC-backed IPOs from 2010–2022.Result: the top decile averaged +400% after three years.The bottom 70% traded below IPO price — median return: -57%.The few still carry the many, even in the public markets.▪️ Cycles, Not Curves→ “Venture liquidity is less a sine curve, more a sawtooth wave.”Half of all exit value in the last decade came from just two years — 2020 and 2021.Venture isn’t about timing perfection; it’s about vintage discipline — staying in the game long enough for the next liquidity spike.John’s worldview is empirical, not romantic.Alignment matters — but selection and structure matter more.The real alpha sits where incentives, discipline, and data intersect.Important links:John's LinkedIn post on Small Fund and Alignment: http://bit.ly/47agoFXJohn's LinkedIn post on Power Law post IPO: http://bit.ly/475pAvcJohn's LinkedIn profile:RBCx Ventures: https://www.rbcx.com/Topics that we discussed: (00:00) Episode intro and overview of TheOnePoint “Brain Snacks” format(00:38) Guest introduction – John Rikhtegar, Director of Capital Investments at RBCx(01:10) What is RBCx and its role in Canada’s innovation ecosystem(02:20) Understanding how fund size shapes venture alignment(04:45) Breaking down the basics of fund economics and incentives(07:10) Why alignment matters—but doesn’t always lead to stronger outcomes(09:40) How longer private company lifecycles affect venture timelines(12:20) What limited partners look for when selecting fund managers(14:40) How fees fit into the overall venture evaluation process(17:40) Comparing post-investment support in venture and private equity(21:50) Exploring power-law dynamics in VC-backed public listings(25:40) Early indicators of durable public-market performance(29:00) Market cycles, timing, and lessons for long-term investors(32:40) Understanding liquidity cycles in venture capital(36:10) Assessing the current market environment in 2025(38:00) Key takeaways – alignment, discipline, and perspective in venture investing

The headlines on American manufacturing have it wrong.The story isn’t just about tariffs or reshoring incentives.The real headline is the trillion-dollar number — the annual investment required to double U.S. manufacturing capacity. That’s more than the GDP of Switzerland.This is just one of the highlights from my thought-provoking chat with Aidan Madigan-Curtis from Eclipse (Links at the end). Before Eclipse, she was an executive at Samsara and the manufacturing lead for the Apple Watch— bringing deep expertise in supply chains and what it will take to rebuild U.S. manufacturing.And here’s another kicker: even if the money shows up, the U.S. is still short 5 million skilled workers. That’s why building projects are delayed not by chips or capital, but by the lack of plumbers, electricians, and technicians.This isn’t just a finance problem. It’s structural.▪️ Supply chains span thousands of miles.▪️ 90% of rare earth magnets are processed in China.▪️ Chips made here are still packaged and tested overseas.Without fixing these bottlenecks, new factories risk becoming expensive paperweights.Two truths can coexist:▪️ The opportunity is enormous.▪️ The obstacles are real.The easy take is to call this push a subsidy bubble. The deeper truth: these dollars are pouring concrete, training workers, and laying the backbone for the next century of energy, defense, and compute.The better analogy isn’t tariffs — it’s the Bessemer process. When Andrew Carnegie brought it to the U.S., it dropped steel costs 10x and fueled the modern economy.The question isn’t whether America re-industrializes. It’s about how the HardTech startup industry can plug into the gaps and achieve stellar outcomes for the U.S. economy.Checkout the links Aidan Madigan-Curtis: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aidan-madigan-curtis/Eclipse: https://eclipse.capital/Rohit Yadav: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rohityadav23/Article 1: What Would It Take to Bring Back U.S. Manufacturing? Part 1: America’s Structural Headwinds. Link – Article 2: What Would It Take to Bring Back U.S. Manufacturing? Part 2: Making American Manufacturing More Productive Article 3: The Future of Domestic Manufacturing. Link:

For years, the startup promise was simple:Join early. Take less salary. Share in the upside.It sounded like a fair trade — until the fine print appeared.The real challenge? When paper equity meets real-world tax and timing rules.With Andrew Endicott of Gilgamesh Ventures, we explored the hidden complexities of startup compensation — and how perception and structure don’t always align.Founders often share the dream of “owning part of the company.”But in most cases, employees receive an option to buy shares later — typically with a 90-day exercise window, limited financial visibility, and little immediate liquidity.It’s not about blame — it’s about design.And it’s a system that can work better for everyone.▪️ Optimism ≠ UnderstandingMost founders aren’t experts in capitalization tables.Most employees aren’t trained to interpret preferred-stock structures.And between those two optimistic groups, value can quietly fade — not in exits, but in expiration dates.▪️ Liquidity as a ChallengeA strike price isn’t cash. Options can’t easily be financed.When departing a startup requires paying to keep your shares, the structure itself may need updating.▪️ A Smarter Equity ModelAndrew’s perspective isn’t about disruption — it’s about refinement.✅ Extend exercise periods beyond 90 days.✅ Consider granting stock directly, with companies covering related taxes where feasible.✅ Redefine ownership as genuine participation, not just potential upside.Because true equity should reward contribution — transparently and fairly.Startups aspire to reshape industries.Perhaps the next evolution is reshaping how they share success with the people who help create it.Topics covered in the podcast:(00:00) Episode intro – Rohit introduces TheOnePoint Podcast and guest Andrew Endicott(01:01) Inside Gilgamesh Ventures – investing in the future of global fintech(02:48) U.S. and international portfolio – why Latin America is a growth hub(04:16) Fintech’s comeback and today’s topic: the evolution of employee ownership(05:02) Understanding startup equity – how tax rules shape employee stock options(08:23) Why employee stock options don’t always deliver expected value(11:34) The communication gap – why equity education matters for teams(16:10) How founders can create clarity and transparency in equity discussions(18:54) Exercising stock options – timing, financing, and employee planning(23:05) Rethinking company policy – extending exercise periods and real ownership(24:51) Exploring common stock models and how tax support can help employees(31:21) Lessons from leading companies – approaches to long-term employee rewards(36:39) Key takeaways – building fair and transparent equity structuresReach out to us: Andrew Endicott: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewendicott/Gilgamesh Ventures: https://www.gilgameshvc.com/Rohit Yadav: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rohityadav23/

Who doesn’t love a hustle story? Especially in venture capital.This one starts in 2009, with Jared Carmel helping a Facebook employee cash out their stock options. Fast forward: he’s now running Manhattan Venture Partners, a $1.5B secondaries powerhouse — ranked top 5 in the U.S.And here’s the punchline:Venture’s old playbook — fund startups, wait for the IPO, call it liquidity — is broken.The real shift? Secondaries.👉 Companies stay private for 20 years.👉 Employees can’t wait that long to pay their bills.👉 Wall Street is piling in, discounts collapsing from 55% to 13%.This is the biggest structural shift in venture capital history.As Jared says:“You can’t have innovation without rewarding the people building it. If public markets won’t do that job anymore—secondaries will.”🔥 Watch the full episode to see why secondaries aren’t just the future of liquidity… they’re the new foundation of venture capital.

I’ve been waiting for this one. What do - two decades of startup investing, the European moment, democratisation of venture capital, and growth stage opportunity - have in common? It’s the VC firm redalpine!The most interesting thing about European venture right now isn’t just the startups being built. It’s the setup investors are staring at.On the surface, the story looks familiar: macro noise, cautious LPs, regulation debates. But underneath, the ingredients for one of the strongest vintages in decades are aligning.Here’s why Michael Sidler (Founding Partner) calls this “the best VC market setup I’ve seen in 20 years”:(1) Valuation Gap. Public markets are frothy again. Private valuations are still compressed. That gap doesn’t stay open forever.(2) IPO Window. Klarna’s NYSE debut wasn’t just liquidity—it was a psychological shift. It reminded founders, GPs, and LPs that belief is back.(3) Capital Flows. Rates are heading down. Liquidity is moving back into risk assets. Public equities already feel priced in. Private equity and venture stand to benefit.(4) Crisis Vintage Effect. The best VC vintages are often born in rough patches. 2022 was painful; 2025 could be the payoff.(5) Europe’s Deep Tech Edge. When Princeton gave up on building precision magnets for a fusion plant, German engineers pulled it off. Europe’s strength lies where software meets engineering—and AI is about to amplify that.(6) Democratization. Redalpine’s Summit Fund is part of a new wave of evergreen, semi-liquid VC products. For LPs and private banks, it’s a way in without the closed-end fund headache. Venture as an asset class is coming of age.This isn’t a victory lap. Michael’s own words: “It’s like standing in front of the goal. The keeper has slipped. You still have to put the ball in.”For Michael, venture isn’t just capital—it’s culture. The dot-com scars left European institutions risk-averse. But a new generation of founders (and now LPs) see startups as rock stars, not pity cases. The asset class is coming of age.And if you care about European tech, this might be the most interesting setup we’ve had in two decades.Chapters in the podcast:(00:00) Episode introduction and overview of the strategic VC report(00:35) Guest introduction: Michael Sidler’s background and early career(01:19) Founding story of Redalpine and lessons from early venture years(04:31) Portfolio highlights: N26, Taxfix, Inkit, La Quera, Proxima Fusion, Araris(06:25) Investment philosophy: focusing on founders and unique innovation(09:44) Why the current moment is strong for European venture capital(14:37) Technology trends: AI, deep tech, and Europe’s global opportunities(19:54) Funding landscape: early-stage growth and late-stage opportunities(22:32) Understanding the role of institutional investors in Europe(26:18) Success factors for European founders expanding internationally(28:19) Global market dynamics and new areas of technology focus(34:35) Venture innovation: Redalpine’s Summit Fund and evergreen model(39:47) Growing interest in venture as a long-term asset class(43:59) How different investors approach venture capital opportunities(45:14) Looking ahead: Redalpine’s vision for the future of European VCConnect with us:Michael Sidler: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sidler/redalpine: https://www.redalpine.com/Rohit Yadav: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rohityadav23/