<description>&lt;p&gt;Hey friends 👋&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;You know the pattern — founder shows up with a deck, flips to the TAM slide, and there it is: $53 billion… $67 billion… any enormous number with a B at the end. And everyone in the room nods like it means something.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;It usually doesn’t.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This week JDM goes solo (Cameron’s out representing the ecosystem and cheering at a pitch competition — we’ll forgive him) to dig into one of his all-time founder pet peeves: the TAM.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Not the concept — the lazy, hopium-laced, percentage-game version that shows up in almost every pitch deck. The one that mistakes the market your &lt;em&gt;customers&lt;/em&gt; are in for the market your &lt;em&gt;product&lt;/em&gt; is in. The one that picks 0.1% because it makes the math look reasonable, not because it means anything.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;From a Slack bot claiming a slice of the wrong pie, to a procurement platform that actually did the math (mostly), to an AI tutoring app that averaged its way to a $67B fantasy, JDM runs the conviction scale on three real TAM claims and calls out every shortcut along the way.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;For his lone frivolous thought, he recommends Ben McKenzie’s documentary &lt;em&gt;Everyone Is Lying to You for Money&lt;/em&gt; — a deep dive into crypto with strong opinions and receipts to match.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;As always, thanks for listening.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;—JDM &amp; Cam&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Timestamps&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;00:00 - Introduction&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;02:15 - TAM: what the slide is supposed to answer (and doesn’t)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;05:30 - Scenario 1: The Slack status bot&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;12:45 - Scenario 2: Food manufacturer procurement platform&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;25:00 - Scenario 3: AI tutoring app for K-12&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;40:00 - Frivolous Thoughts&lt;/p&gt; &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit &lt;a href="https://zerototraction.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&amp;#38;utm_campaign=CTA_1"&gt;zerototraction.substack.com&lt;/a&gt;</description>

Traction Lab Podcast

JDM and Cameron Law

This TAM is just a snort of hopium

APR 25, 202630 MIN
Traction Lab Podcast

This TAM is just a snort of hopium

APR 25, 202630 MIN

Description

<p>Hey friends 👋</p><p>You know the pattern — founder shows up with a deck, flips to the TAM slide, and there it is: $53 billion… $67 billion… any enormous number with a B at the end. And everyone in the room nods like it means something.</p><p>It usually doesn’t.</p><p>This week JDM goes solo (Cameron’s out representing the ecosystem and cheering at a pitch competition — we’ll forgive him) to dig into one of his all-time founder pet peeves: the TAM.</p><p>Not the concept — the lazy, hopium-laced, percentage-game version that shows up in almost every pitch deck. The one that mistakes the market your <em>customers</em> are in for the market your <em>product</em> is in. The one that picks 0.1% because it makes the math look reasonable, not because it means anything.</p><p>From a Slack bot claiming a slice of the wrong pie, to a procurement platform that actually did the math (mostly), to an AI tutoring app that averaged its way to a $67B fantasy, JDM runs the conviction scale on three real TAM claims and calls out every shortcut along the way.</p><p>For his lone frivolous thought, he recommends Ben McKenzie’s documentary <em>Everyone Is Lying to You for Money</em> — a deep dive into crypto with strong opinions and receipts to match.</p><p>As always, thanks for listening.</p><p>—JDM & Cam</p><p>Timestamps</p><p>00:00 - Introduction</p><p>02:15 - TAM: what the slide is supposed to answer (and doesn’t)</p><p>05:30 - Scenario 1: The Slack status bot</p><p>12:45 - Scenario 2: Food manufacturer procurement platform</p><p>25:00 - Scenario 3: AI tutoring app for K-12</p><p>40:00 - Frivolous Thoughts</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://zerototraction.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_1">zerototraction.substack.com</a>