More or Less

The pod signs off for the year with its final episode—a sharp, chaotic recap of last year’s predictions and a fresh round of hot takes for 2026. Sam and Dave, unsurprisingly, wing it: Sam calls a single $500B+ IPO (SpaceX), Google up, NVIDIA down, and Meta hitting new highs on AI-powered ads. Jess warns that AI-driven efficiency will fuel layoffs (especially in journalism) and that CapEx hype is outrunning reality. Dave predicts a boom in third places and games-first IP, while Britt bets on an Apple comeback, AI wearables as daily “life summarizers,” a breakout AI-native social app, and a celebrity licensing their AI twin. True to form, the crew goes off script to debate Amazon’s rumored $10B OpenAI deal, AI as the new UI, which model builders survive, regulation looming over prediction markets, “slop” as word of the year, GLP-1s going mainstream, creators eyeing Emmys, and much more. Chapters:01:50 Morin’s “Nauti or Nice” Holiday Card04:06 Sam’s 2025 Predictions: Bitcoin, Solana ETFs, Crypto Government Adoption05:16 Britt’s 2025 Predictions: Amazon Marketplace, Elon’s “TITS,” Swift Engagement07:52 Dave’s 2025 Predictions: Data Centers, Material Flow Robotics, Crypto Clarity10:18 Jess’s 2025 Predictions: TikTok U.S., Vertical Stacks, Media Copyright, GLP-1s11:40 2025 Themes: “Slop,” AI Talent Wars, Government–Tech Ties12:58 Big Tech Check-In: Apple Loses Ground, Google’s Delta13:41 Amazon’s $10B OpenAI Bet and Chip Diplomacy16:16 Britt’s 2026 Predictions: Apple Comeback, Wearable Agents, AI Talent Deals21:45 Jess’s 2026 Predictions: AI-Driven Layoffs, Liquidity Wave, Prediction Market Regulation28:57 Dave’s 2026 Predictions: Third Places, Games-First IP, Roblox Scrutiny36:17 Sam’s 2026 Predictions: One $500B+ IPO, Nvidia Down, Google Up, Meta ATH44:13 AI Is the New UI: SaaS UX Moats Under Pressure49:35 Does AI Adult Content Go Mainstream?50:04 Dave on Google Doppl and AI Try-On Tech51:28 Britt’s Pop Corner: Taylor Swift Album and Pregnancy Speculation52:19 Industry Wish List: More DPI, Kids’ Mental Health, Waymos EverywhereWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/ehO3wIio7NwConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

This week’s a big one: the squad kicks it off with Starlink on planes, Zoox vs. Waymo, and YouTube’s skinny bundle before taking the big swing — data centers in space as the emerging SpaceX-IPO narrative. Sam and Dave break down the real entrepreneurship skill: tell the huge story, earn the trust multiple, and consistently deliver “20 cents on the dollar” to keep the flywheel of cash spinning (re: Elon Musk and Sam Altman but thread lightly, you don't want to end up like Elizabeth Holmes or Sam Bankman-Fried). Jess celebrates a win with The Information after getting CNBC to correct their reporting. Then they touch on how the backlash against AI is growing as the 101 billboards fill up with more AI company ads. From Sorkin’s 1929 zeitgeist to smuggling Nvidia chips into China to “IPO everything and pray the American economy survives,” it’s never a dull episode with Brit, Dave, Jess, and Sam. Stay tuned for next week’s 2026 predictions… and drop yours in the comments.Chapters:05:50 Netflix vs Paramount - Who's going to win the deal and is this an Inverse AOL-Time Warner?16:56 Golden Globes nominees and Disney+'s Taylor Swift docuseries17:49 Bundling unbundling YouTube’s skinny bundle and sports21:29 Starlink on planes = fewer redeyes24:55 Zoox vs Waymo28:15 Space GPUs and the data centers in space33:57 The modern entrepreneurship skill: narrative flywheel41:38 Jess’s and The Information's win correcting CNBC's refuted chip story46:04 AI narrative in China vs US47:16 AI backlash: energy prices, water restraints, and kid's mental health52:06 The 101 Billboard Bubble Index57:17 Will the SpaceX, OpenAI, Anduril, or Anthropic IPOs save the economy?58:30 Sorkin’s book predicted the AI bubble?We’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/RiKVJD_3ziMConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

Bitcoin’s down, so the Lessins turned down the heat and pulled out their winter gear. The More or Less squad jumps from SF’s drone-powered crime-fighting memes (Daniel Lurie’s “no drugs” moment) to how creator-content strategy now drives real deal flow. Jess says 2026 will split the AI tide (we unfortunately did have to touch on AI), with Meta’s missing enterprise story dragging its CapEx dreams, while AWS is suddenly courting founders again. From Apple’s design chief Alan Dye jumping to Meta to questioning whether OpenAI’s “code red” was a decoy, the squad never misses when it comes to the latest thinking in Silicon Valley.Buy Slow's Modern Etiquette book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0G4HSKSY5Chapters:Chapters:01:10 Kudos to SF Mayor, Daniel Lurie!07:14 Doom scrolling on a Garmin watch12:34 Holiday gift guides: AI robots, Duolingo piano, Matic vac mop, etc14:30 The creator-VC playbook 21:27 Instagram RTO 5 days per week leadership reality check22:08 Alan Dye leaves Apple for Meta 26:09 Jess' 2026 prediction: The Big Tech divergence is coming27:46 Meta’s enterprise gap28:46 AWS outreach to Sam: Bedrock Nova and startup credits31:45 Sam Altman's code red memo -- is it a decoy?33:51 Gemini latency vs GPT why speed matters for Brit (Ad opp?)44:39 Is Aaron Levie for or against AI?46:40 Waymo's safety report and Dave's FSD usage51:21 Recapping the Slow holiday party + Offline's next58:28 Slow's Modern Etiquette Book plug (Link to purchase: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0G4HSKSY5)We’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTubeConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

Pre-Thanksgiving chatter from the Lessins’ Surf Shack: Jess, Brit, Dave, and Sam pinball from holiday-card automation to trillion-dollar AI geopolitics. Brit trades Minted for Canva+GPT, Jess admits to maintaining a 600-row address spreadsheet, Sam unveils Slow’s Etiquette Book, and Dave still can’t believe we can’t pay in USDC. Don’t worry this year's Thanksgiving edition will live up to its hype, the crew gets into the real stuff too: Google’s TPU push vs. Nvidia’s moat, Meta reportedly buying billions in TPUs, whether Google can shave 10% off Nvidia’s revenue, and more.Chapters:06:45 The San Francisco consensus and Silicon Valley’s real innovation marketing11:10 Elon Zuck and megaphone-powered distribution14:30 Why interface distribution will decide AI winner17:20 Memory isn’t real lock-in switching between ChatGPT and Gemini21:40 OpenAI’s identity crisis: Apple-style computer vs Meta-style attention26:30 Google complex vs OpenAI complex how the narrative flipped29:10 Google TPUs vs Nvidia Meta’s rumored buying spree33:20 AI infrastructure economics depreciation CapEx margins36:00 Macro vs micro elections risk cycles 40:10 DOE’s Genesis Mission and where the analogy breaks44:00 OpenAI's Jony Ive device timeline48:30 Why distribution still beats novelty53:15 Final takeaways: marketing distribution and business-model warsWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/7BbWHm3KODwConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

Jessica kicks things off with Brit’s five-hour Brit-chella extravaganza—red latex, Light Balance blackout choreo, Ke$ha surprise, and more. The crew checks in on Jessica’s IG detox, TikTok's new "self control badges", ChatGPT launching group chats, Google Gemini taking the lead, and why “just be Google” might be the winning AI brand strategy as AI melts into UX. Sam calls 2026 OpenAI’s make-or-break year and trashes their consumer subscription thesis; Jessica argues ad/commerce is the only viable lane. Markets stay frothy (Nvidia), hyperscaler debt risk rises, the White House preempts 50-state AI chaos, and Coinbase x Kalshi turns prediction markets into a spectator sport. Meme corner closes the loop and a possible Femme-etiquette school spinoff make its debut.Chapters:00:37 Intro and Brit-Chella Recap10:33 Jessica’s Instagram detox check-in and what changed15:59 TikTok’s anti screen-time badges17:48 ChatGPT launches group chats; why Meta missed its chance20:51 Google Gemini takes the lead in the AI race23:37 OpenAI’s monetization problem; no one buys the consumer story29:14 Just be Google — higher brand credibility, revenue streams, and distribution39:33 Breaking: Nvidia earnings are still growing43:14 White House EO to preempt state AI regulation; why federal matters48:06 Coinbase and Kalshi prediction markets, culture, and compliance53:12 Meme Corner: RIP 6–7, hello 4156:03 Make SF Dress Up Again: Femme-Etiquette SchoolWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/ahZTkLfJTykConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit