Vandenberg Flash Focus

The United States has continued to pressure the Maduro regime with F-18 flyovers, the seizure of oil tankers, and new sanctions on Venezuelan entities associated with the Maduro regime, alongside continued strikes on drug boats. Simultaneously, the Venezuelan opposition has continued gaining momentum. Notably, Maria Carina Machado, the head of the Venezuelan opposition, had a miraculous exit from Venezuela to receive the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo, Norway. Former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela James Story joins Vandenberg Executive Director Carrie Filipetti to discuss these recent updates, what a post-Maduro Venezuela would look like, and more. Our October 24 episode with Ryan Berg: https://player.captivate.fm/episode/101b0c5e-fe2c-4f84-b5bb-861f9a392aa1/ Democratic Transition Framework for Venezuela: https://2017-2021.state.gov/democratic-transition-framework-for-venezuela/ (1:32) How Did We Get Here in Venezuela?(3:05) U.S. Interests in Venezuela(5:09) President Trump’s Decision to Sanction Colombian President Gustavo Petro(7:54) Striking Drug Boats(10:42) Seizing Oil Tankers(13:48) Trump 1.0 vs Trump 2.0 in the Western Hemisphere(16:07) Venezuela vs. Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan(19:47) Establishing the Red Lines for Maduro’s Departure(23:12) María Corina Machado’s Departure and Return(26:08) Opportunities for the United States With a Free and Democratic Venezuela(30:20) Is This Going to Work? If So, When?You can watch this episode as a video on YouTube.

The United States faces serious cyber vulnerabilities from its principal adversaries—China, Russia, and Iran. In her report “A Playbook for Winning the Cyber War,” Emily Harding, a Vandenberg Advisory Board member and Director of the Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program as well as Vice President of the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, issues a stark warning: “The United States has been losing a war it did not know it was fighting—and it has been losing for the last 20 years.” How can America turn the tide, leverage its strengths, and close its cyber gaps? Emily Harding joins Vandenberg Senior Policy Director Corban Teague to discuss her groundbreaking report and outline how the United States can secure victory in the cyber domain.https://www.csis.org/programs/intelligence-national-security-and-technology-program/playbook-winning-cyber-war (1:47) Why the United States is Losing(3:50) The Capabilities of our Adversaries(8:20) Cyber Wargames(13:25) Redefining War and Retaliation(16:29) Attribution and Action(19:53) Defense as a “No Fail Mission”(22:54) Octopus Offense(26:36) Priorities for PolicymakersYou can watch this episode as a video on YouTube.

A few weeks ago, President Trump secured the release of all 20 remaining living hostages in Gaza and reached a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. This ceasefire is a tenuous one; Hamas has refused to release the bodies of deceased hostages and has violated agreed-upon boundaries, sparking limited clashes with Israeli forces. Nonetheless, the ceasefire has paved the way for renewed discussions on Gaza’s future, the precarious status of the West Bank, and broader questions of Palestinian statehood. Elliott Abrams, Chairman of The Vandenberg Coalition and Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, joins Flash Focus to discuss the ceasefire, his landmark piece in Mosaic entitled “There Never Will Be a Palestinian State. So What’s Next?”, the outlook for Judea, Samaria, and Gaza, and more.https://ideas.tikvah.org/mosaic/essays/there-won-t-be-a-palestinian-state-in-the-west-bank-it-s-time-to-reconsider-the-j https://www.impact-se.org/  (1:18) Assessing Phase One(3:22) The (Failed) European Approach(5:18) Why Will There Never Be A Palestinian State?(8:47) A Jordanian-Palestinian Confederation(13:57) Deradicalizing Gaza(17:57) International Stabilization Force (22:13) Ending “Something for Nothing”(25:34) Gaza’s Near-Term FutureYou can watch this episode as a video on YouTube.

Right now, all eyes remain on the Caribbean, where President Trump’s buildup of military forces has raised significant questions about American intentions and objectives in Latin America. Is the United States simply conducting counternarcotics operations, or are we embarking on regime change or pressure in the region? Ryan Berg, Director of the Americas Program and Head of the Future of Venezuela Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Vandenberg Advisory Board member, joins Vandenberg Executive Director Carrie Filipetti to discuss these recent developments and more. The Woman Who Took on a Dictator—and Won a Nobel Peace Prize“Democracy: Use It or Lose It”(1:08) Why Does Venezuela Matter for the United States?(3:13) Venezuelan Cartels(7:10) The Caribbean Buildup(10:31) President Trump’s Main Objective(12:50) Message to Mexican Cartels and Sheinbaum(16:33) Maduro’s Behavior(20:33) U.S. Personnel Covering Venezuela (24:00) Venezuelan Opposition & María Corina MachadoYou can watch this podcast as a video on YouTube.

The United States has plenty of work ahead of us if we want to win the global soft power battleground in the fight against China, Russia, and Iran. With good reason, the Trump administration has strongly criticized the implementation of American soft power under the previous administration. Its response has been to cut billions in foreign aid, but while breaking some eggs is necessary, preparing the ingredients and cooking the omelet is equally vital to ensure that the execution of U.S. soft power matches the enlightened principles upon which it was conceived following World War II. Dan Twining, President of the International Republican Institute (IRI) and Vandenberg Advisory Board Member, joins Flash Focus to discuss how the United States can capitalize on this current moment to reorient U.S. soft power effectively and efficiently within the current geopolitical context. You can watch this podcast as a video on YouTube. Dan Twining’s “Democracy Assistance Isn’t Regime Change” (1:51) What Does Soft Power Mean?(2:41) Soft Power in the Cold War(4:23) The Present Strength of American Soft Power(6:58) Why Does Soft Power Matter?(9:34) Misconceptions About Democracy Assistance (13:39) The Trump Administration’s Cuts(15:57) The Development Finance Organization and Millennium Challenge Corporation (17:40) Supporting Dissidents(21:07) Democracy Programs in Action(23:24) Why Should Americans Care About Soft Power?(27:06) Recommendations to Make Soft Power More Effective