The Case For Q-Day 2032 w/ Justin Drake
Justin Drake joins us to talk about the reality of cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CROC). We dive into his recent work with Google scientists on Shor’s algorithm optimizations and why neutral atoms have become the "dark horse" in the race to break Bitcoin’s 256-bit encryption. Justin shares his updated timeline for "Q-Day," the role of US government censorship in quantum research, and why the crypto industry must act now to remain secure.
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Notes:
• 10,000 qubits needed to run Shor's algorithm.
• $5B invested in quantum industry last year.
• Drake says 10% chance of a "CROC" by 2032.
• Neutral atoms run 1,000x slower than superconducting
Timestamps:
00:00 Start
00:31 Google paper
03:40 "In flight" key cracking
04:38 Superconducting qbits
05:21 Neutral atom quantum computing
08:42 Broad Quantum overview
10:53 Neutral atoms require far less infrastructure
12:41 Is Google pivoting to Neutral Atoms?
14:12 What does winner mean?
14:41 Q-day 2032?
15:55 Why the fast emergence thesis?
22:52 Theory vs engineering breakthroughs
27:03 Timelines
35:55 What is real vs hype?
37:05 Quantum error correction
41:32 Bitcoin reality check
47:25 Justin Drake is a Bitcoiner, umm kind of...
53:03 Standards
53:43 Signature aggregation
57:19 Are NIST the baddies?
1:00:31 BTC security budget worries
1:05:14 Energy bottleneck
1:06:23 ETH security
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