BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Dylan Patel, Founder & Chief Analyst at SemiAnalysis, to discuss origins of SemiAnalysis, Google's AI workload, NVIDIA's competitive edge, the shift to GPUs in data centers, the challenges of scaling AI pre-training, synthetic data generation, hyperscaler capital expenditures, the paradox of building bigger clusters despite claims that pretraining is obsolete, inference-time compute, NVIDIA's comparison to Cisco, evolving memory technology, chip competition, future predictions, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:50) Dylan Patel Backstory

(02:36) SemiAnalysis Backstory

(04:18) Google's AI Workload

(06:58) NVIDIA's Edge

(10:59) NVIDIA's Incremental Differentiation

(13:12) Potential Vulnerabilities for NVIDIA

(17:18) The Shift to GPUs: What It Means for Data Centers

(22:29) AI Pre-training Scaling Challenges

(29:43) If Pretraining Is Dead, Why Bigger Clusters?

(34:00) Synthetic Data Generation

(36:26) Hyperscaler CapEx

(38:12) Pre-training and Inference-tIme Reasoning

(41:00) Cisco Comparison to NVIDIA

(44:11) Inference-time Compute

(53:18) The Future of AI Models and Market Dynamics

(01:00:58) Evolving Memory Technology

(01:06:46) Chip Competition

(01:07:18) AMD

(01:10:35) Google’s TPU

(01:14:56) Cerebras and Grok

(01:14:51) Amason’s Tranium

(01:17:33) Predictions for 2025 and 2026

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, to discuss becoming Microsoft’s CEO, Advice for CEO’s, Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI, Legacy Search, Ten Blue Links, Consumer and Enterprise AI, The Future of AI Agents, Infinite Memory, CoPilot, Microsoft’s Capital Expenditure, Open AI’s future, AI safety & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:31) Becoming Microsoft CEO

(06:42) Satya’s Memo to CEO Committee 

(10:42) Satya’s Advantage as a CEO

(11:34) Advice for CEOs

(15:01) Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI

(19:42) AI Arms Race

(23:55) Legacy Search and Consumer AI

(28:07) The Future of AI Agents

(38:32) Near-Infinite Memory

(39:47) Copilot Approach to AI Adoption

(50:26) Leveraging AI within Microsoft

(56:03) CapX

(01:00:20) The Cost of Model Scaling and Inference

(01:15:15) Open AI Conversion to Profit

(01:18:05) Next Steps for OpenAI

(01:19:43) Open vs. Closed and Safe AI

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they get in the Thanksgiving spirit, and discuss China, DOGE, Governor Newsom’s EV Tax Credit, Service Titan IPO, FedNow, Tariffs, Anthropic Open Source, Warren Buffet’s Thanksgiving letter, Conspiracy Theories, Invest America, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:40) Innovation in China & U.S. Competitiveness

(05:43) DOGE & Balancing the Budget

(10:43) Service Titan IPO & “Compounding Ratchet”

(15:36) Gov Newsom Attack on Tesla

(18:33) FedNow + Innovations in Payment Systems

(23:44) Tariffs as Negotiation Tactics

(27:36) Anthropic Open Source AI

(30:39) Warren Buffett's Philanthropy

(40:06) Invest America

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss AI Scaling Laws, the future of inference, AI memory and actions, National Full Self-Driving Regulations, FSD 13, Robotaxi and Waymo, Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(02:00) AI Scaling Laws

(05:54) Implications of AI Scaling Trends

(12:20) The Future of Inference and Data Quality

(17:51) AI Memory and Actions

(21:47) National Full Self-Driving Regulation

(23:14) FSD 13

(29:41) Market Disruption: Winners and Losers in the Auto Industry

(31:18) The Future of OEM’s

(40:41) Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)

(54:47) Tech Market Check

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Jamin Ball (Partner at Altimeter) to discuss the state of venture capital and incentives, implications of overcapitalization, the future of power law returns, AI’s impact on investment strategies, the future of AI and CapEx, the market’s reactions to the 2024 election, the evolution of search and AI integration, Nasa, SpaceX, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:52) Bill’s Dad | from Nasa to SpaceX

(06:20) State of VC and Incentives w/ Jamin Ball

(12:31) Implications of Overcapitalization

(25:08) The Future of Power Law Returns

(38:28) The Impact of AI on Investment Strategies

(46:00) Future of AI and Capital Expenditure

(52:21) Market Reactions to 2024 Election

(01:00:45) Evolution of Search and AI Integration