5% Yields, $100 Oil & Peak Earnings? Victoria Fernandez on What Wall Street Is Missing | The Money Path
Treasury yields are above 5%. Oil is back around $100. The Federal Reserve is talking tough. And Wall Street is beginning to ask whether extraordinary earnings growth can continue. But is the market becoming too pessimistic? On this episode of The Money Path, host Todd M. Schoenberger, CEO of CrossCheck Media Inc., welcomes back Victoria Fernandez, Chief Market Strategist at Crossmark Global Investments in Houston, for a wide-ranging conversation about the signals investors should be watching now. Victoria begins with the labor market, arguing that the latest JOLTS data still point to a relatively stable environment: job openings declined, but layoffs and quits haven't deteriorated materially. The bigger question may be what happens next as companies confront rising input costs and potentially tighter profit margins. Victoria says margins will be particularly important during the coming earnings season, especially if companies eventually respond to pressure by reducing headcount. Then comes the Fed. With markets pricing additional rate increases, Victoria questions whether investors have gone too far. She sees the possibility of another hike but argues that the market's expectation for four hikes may be excessive, suggesting two or three could ultimately prove closer to the mark. And when it comes to the 10-year Treasury above 5%, Victoria sees opportunity. Crossmark has been buying bonds for some clients, taking profits from equity-market winners and locking in attractive fixed-income yields for longer-term investors. Todd and Victoria also tackle $100 oil, the pressure higher energy costs could eventually put on consumers and corporate margins, and why persistent energy inflation could make the Fed's job considerably more difficult. Victoria's distinction is critical: temporary oil spikes may be manageable, but oil remaining above $100 for an extended period could begin to bite. But perhaps the biggest question is earnings. Victoria notes that recent quarterly earnings growth has exceeded 20% and says expectations are around 28% for the third quarter. The risk is what happens if earnings, margins and economic growth are approaching peak levels. If investors expect 25%–28% earnings growth and receive something below 20%, she believes the market could respond negatively. The conversation also turns to AI spending and the enormous amount of debt being issued by technology companies. Victoria isn't sounding the alarm yet: she says technology credit spreads have actually tightened in some cases and credit markets aren't currently signaling a crisis. But she makes an important point—credit is often where investors first see evidence that the Fed has gone too far. And her closing message may be the most important: investors focused on 5% Treasury yields and additional Fed hikes could be overlooking a resilient consumer, relatively benign credit conditions, a stable labor market, increased business applications and potentially improving productivity. Is Wall Street correctly pricing the risks—or getting ahead of itself again? 🔗 Website: https://biztalktodaytv.com 📧 Contact on Email: [email protected] 📢 Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed on this program are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of CrossCheck Media Inc., Biz Talk Today TV (BTT), or their affiliated entities and distribution partners. Content produced by CrossCheck Media across video, audio, and digital platforms is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing presented should be construed as financial, investment, legal, tax, or gambling advice, nor as a recommendation to buy or sell any security, asset, wager, or strategy. All investments and wagers involve risk, including the possible loss of principal or money placed on a bet. Past performance and statistical analysis are not indicative of future results. Viewers and readers are solely responsible for their financial and wagering decisions and should conduct their own due diligence and consult with qualified professionals where appropriate. Sports betting commentary is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Participants must comply with applicable laws and age requirements in their jurisdiction. #TheMoneyPath #VictoriaFernandez #ToddSchoenberger #WallStreet #StockMarket #Investing #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #InterestRates #OilPrices #Inflation #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Earnings #BondMarket #FixedIncome #JobsReport #JOLTS #MarketOutlook #CrossmarkGlobal #BizTalkTodayTV Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
/https%3A%2F%2Fmegaphone.imgix.net%2Fpodcasts%2F10f20d1e-cc42-11ee-8d94-5706d5b24a85%2Fimage%2F5cc13661b0827ebafef67af39f137d5b.png%3Fixlib%3Drails-4.3.1%26max-w%3D3000%26max-h%3D3000%26fit%3Dcrop%26auto%3Dformat%2Ccompress)
/https%3A%2F%2Fmegaphone.imgix.net%2Fpodcasts%2F10f20d1e-cc42-11ee-8d94-5706d5b24a85%2Fimage%2F5cc13661b0827ebafef67af39f137d5b.png%3Fixlib%3Drails-4.3.1%26max-w%3D3000%26max-h%3D3000%26fit%3Dcrop%26auto%3Dformat%2Ccompress)
/https%3A%2F%2Fmegaphone.imgix.net%2Fpodcasts%2Fa2f12012-bdd3-11f1-8196-2b1fddf698b5%2Fimage%2F3557b6e2b3ffd3932773b888fe3d0f4b.jpg%3Fixlib%3Drails-4.3.1%26max-w%3D3000%26max-h%3D3000%26fit%3Dcrop%26auto%3Dformat%2Ccompress)
/https%3A%2F%2Fmegaphone.imgix.net%2Fpodcasts%2F764de9d2-bdbf-11f1-bb66-e385c6090aeb%2Fimage%2F04f9b17bb162dcbe4fab4b9c9ed38011.png%3Fixlib%3Drails-4.3.1%26max-w%3D3000%26max-h%3D3000%26fit%3Dcrop%26auto%3Dformat%2Ccompress)
/https%3A%2F%2Fmegaphone.imgix.net%2Fpodcasts%2Fd5543058-bcfc-11f1-899a-ab46db704283%2Fimage%2F8678b92fa78c7c717c80233ec0d83d3e.png%3Fixlib%3Drails-4.3.1%26max-w%3D3000%26max-h%3D3000%26fit%3Dcrop%26auto%3Dformat%2Ccompress)
/https%3A%2F%2Fmegaphone.imgix.net%2Fpodcasts%2Fa30c7020-bcf6-11f1-a920-8b9ebb0f65a0%2Fimage%2Faf098699d6b394bb9451f3a2678b051e.jpg%3Fixlib%3Drails-4.3.1%26max-w%3D3000%26max-h%3D3000%26fit%3Dcrop%26auto%3Dformat%2Ccompress)