Prediction markets are having a moment. But what are they actually good for? Economist Robin Hanson has been thinking about this for decades. Long before betting markets went mainstream, he argued they could do more than forecast the future — they could help us make better decisions.

Host Megan McArdle talks with Hanson about how prediction markets work, why they often beat other forms of forecasting and how today’s versions could be improved.

Reasonably Optimistic

The Washington Post

What prediction markets tell us about the future

MAY 13, 202634 MIN
Reasonably Optimistic

What prediction markets tell us about the future

MAY 13, 202634 MIN

Description

<p>Prediction markets are having a moment. But what are they actually good for? Economist Robin Hanson has been thinking about this for decades. Long before betting markets went mainstream, he argued they could do more than forecast the future — they could help us make better decisions.</p><p><br></p><p>Host Megan McArdle talks with Hanson about how prediction markets work, why they often beat other forms of forecasting and how today’s versions could be improved.</p><p><br></p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent;">Subscribe to The Washington Post&nbsp;</span><a href="https://subscribe.washingtonpost.com/acquisition/?s_l=OFFSITE_PODCAST&amp;p=s_v&amp;s_dt=yearly&amp;utm%5B%E2%80%A6%5De-podcast&amp;utm_medium=acq-nat&amp;utm_campaign=podcast-subs" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">here</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: transparent;">.</span></p>