<p>Every year we spring forward and lose an hour of sleep. But do we also lose a few heart cells? Some headlines claim that heart attacks spike by 24% after daylight saving time begins. In this episode we trace that number back to the research behind it—and what we find is more complicated than the headlines suggest. We examine a famous New England Journal of Medicine letter, a large international meta-analysis, and a massive modern U.S. registry study. Along the way we talk about incidence ratios, relative versus absolute risk, negative controls, and a haunting concept called harvesting. Plus: why bar charts are not for numerical data, why journalists love dramatic numbers, and how a bug collector helped invent daylight saving time.</p><p><br></p><p><strong>Statistical topics</strong></p><ul><li>Incidence ratios / incidence rates</li><li>Meta-analysis</li><li>Negative controls</li><li>Relative risk vs absolute risk</li><li>Statistical vs practical significance</li><li>Statistical Sleuthing<p></p></li></ul><p><br><strong>Methodological morals</strong></p><ul><li>“A bump in time isn’t always a bump in total.” </li><li>“If you already know the story you want to tell, you can always find a number to tell it.”  </li></ul><p><br></p><p><br><strong>References</strong></p><ul><li>Bourke, India. “An obsessed insect hunter: The creepy-crawly origins of daylight saving.” <em>BBC Future</em>, March 31, 2024. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240308-how-first-suggestions-of-daylight-savings-time-was-inspired-by-insects">https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240308-how-first-suggestions-of-daylight-savings-time-was-inspired-by-insects</a></li><li>Fox-Skelly, Jasmin. “How Daylight Saving Time Affects Your Health.” <em>BBC Future</em>, October 25, 2025. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20251024-how-daylight-saving-time-affects-our-health">https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20251024-how-daylight-saving-time-affects-our-health</a></li><li>Hurst A, Morfeld P, Lewis P, Erren TC. <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38888468/">Daylight Saving Time Transitions and Risk of Heart Attack</a>. <em>Dtsch Arztebl Int</em>. 2024;121(15):490-496. doi:10.3238/arztebl.m2024.0078</li><li>Janszky I, Ljung R. <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18971502/">Shifts to and from daylight saving time and incidence of myocardial infarction</a>. <em>N Engl J Med</em>. 2008;359(18):1966-1968. doi:10.1056/NEJMc0807104</li><li>Jiddou MR, Pica M, Boura J, Qu L, Franklin BA.<a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23228926/"> Incidence of myocardial infarction with shifts to and from daylight savings time.</a> <em>Am J Cardiol</em>. 2013;111(5):631-635. doi:10.1016/j.amjcard.2012.11.010</li><li>Mellour, Richard. “The builder who changed how the world keeps time.” <em>BBC Future</em>, March 11, 2016. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20160310-the-builder-who-changed-how-the-world-keeps-time">https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20160310-the-builder-who-changed-how-the-world-keeps-time</a></li><li>Rymer JA, Li S, Chiswell K, et al. <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40924425/">Daylight Savings Time and Acute Myocardial Infarction. </a><em>JAMA Netw Open</em>. 2025;8(9):e2530442. Published 2025 Sep 2. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.30442</li><li><a href="https://graph2table.com/">https://graph2table.com/</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p><br><strong>Kristin and Regina’s online courses: <br></strong><br></p><p><a href="https://online.stanford.edu/courses/som-xche0033-demystifying-data-modern-approach-statistical-understanding">Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding</a>  </p><p><a href="https://online.stanford.edu/courses/som-xche0030-clinical-trials-design-strategy-and-analysis">Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis</a> </p><p><a href="https://online.stanford.edu/programs/medical-statistics-program">Medical Statistics Certificate Program</a>  </p><p><a href="https://www.coursera.org/learn/sciwrite">Writing in the Sciences</a> </p><p><a href="https://online.stanford.edu/programs/epidemiology-and-clinical-research-graduate-certificate">Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program</a> </p><p>Programs that we teach in:</p><p><a href="https://online.stanford.edu/programs/epidemiology-and-clinical-research-graduate-certificate">Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program</a> </p><p><br></p><p><strong>Find us on:</strong></p><p>Kristin - <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/kristin-sainani-642b5914/"> LinkedIn</a> &amp;<a href="https://x.com/KristinSainani"> Twitter/X</a></p><p>Regina -<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/reginanuzzo/"> LinkedIn</a> &amp;<a href="https://www.reginanuzzo.com/"> </a><a href="http://reginanuzzo.com">ReginaNuzzo.com</a></p><p><br></p><ul><li>(00:00) - Intro
</li>
<li>(05:03) - Strange history of daylight saving time
</li>
<li>(16:06) - Swedish NEJM study
</li>
<li>(19:14) - Incidence ratios explained
</li>
<li>(22:13) - What the Swedish study actually found
</li>
<li>(31:11) - Absolute vs relative risk
</li>
<li>(34:27) - Harvesting effect
</li>
<li>(40:10) - 2024 Meta-analysis
</li>
<li>(45:37) - Large modern US study
</li>
<li>(55:23) - Where the “24% increase” came from
</li>
<li>(59:16) - Wrap-up</li>
</ul>

Normal Curves: Sexy Science, Serious Statistics

Regina Nuzzo and Kristin Sainani

Daylight Saving Time: Does springing forward cause heart attacks?

MAR 9, 202664 MIN
Normal Curves: Sexy Science, Serious Statistics

Daylight Saving Time: Does springing forward cause heart attacks?

MAR 9, 202664 MIN

Description

Every year we spring forward and lose an hour of sleep. But do we also lose a few heart cells? Some headlines claim that heart attacks spike by 24% after daylight saving time begins. In this episode we trace that number back to the research behind it—and what we find is more complicated than the headlines suggest. We examine a famous New England Journal of Medicine letter, a large international meta-analysis, and a massive modern U.S. registry study. Along the way we talk about incidence ratios, relative versus absolute risk, negative controls, and a haunting concept called harvesting. Plus: why bar charts are not for numerical data, why journalists love dramatic numbers, and how a bug collector helped invent daylight saving time.Statistical topicsIncidence ratios / incidence ratesMeta-analysisNegative controlsRelative risk vs absolute riskStatistical vs practical significanceStatistical SleuthingMethodological morals“A bump in time isn’t always a bump in total.” “If you already know the story you want to tell, you can always find a number to tell it.”  ReferencesBourke, India. “An obsessed insect hunter: The creepy-crawly origins of daylight saving.” BBC Future, March 31, 2024. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240308-how-first-suggestions-of-daylight-savings-time-was-inspired-by-insectsFox-Skelly, Jasmin. “How Daylight Saving Time Affects Your Health.” BBC Future, October 25, 2025. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20251024-how-daylight-saving-time-affects-our-healthHurst A, Morfeld P, Lewis P, Erren TC. Daylight Saving Time Transitions and Risk of Heart Attack. Dtsch Arztebl Int. 2024;121(15):490-496. doi:10.3238/arztebl.m2024.0078Janszky I, Ljung R. Shifts to and from daylight saving time and incidence of myocardial infarction. N Engl J Med. 2008;359(18):1966-1968. doi:10.1056/NEJMc0807104Jiddou MR, Pica M, Boura J, Qu L, Franklin BA. Incidence of myocardial infarction with shifts to and from daylight savings time. Am J Cardiol. 2013;111(5):631-635. doi:10.1016/j.amjcard.2012.11.010Mellour, Richard. “The builder who changed how the world keeps time.” BBC Future, March 11, 2016. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20160310-the-builder-who-changed-how-the-world-keeps-timeRymer JA, Li S, Chiswell K, et al. Daylight Savings Time and Acute Myocardial Infarction. JAMA Netw Open. 2025;8(9):e2530442. Published 2025 Sep 2. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.30442https://graph2table.com/Kristin and Regina’s online courses: Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding  Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis Medical Statistics Certificate Program  Writing in the Sciences Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program Programs that we teach in:Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program Find us on:Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/XRegina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com(00:00) - Intro (05:03) - Strange history of daylight saving time (16:06) - Swedish NEJM study (19:14) - Incidence ratios explained (22:13) - What the Swedish study actually found (31:11) - Absolute vs relative risk (34:27) - Harvesting effect (40:10) - 2024 Meta-analysis (45:37) - Large modern US study (55:23) - Where the “24% increase” came from (59:16) - Wrap-up