Optimist Economy

(Originally aired 7/1/2025) Newly minted college graduates are having a harder time landing that first job than in recent years. Is it AI? Is college useless? Is it a crisis? (No. No. And not yet…) College graduates under 27 still have significantly lower unemployment rates (5.8%) than high school graduates of the same age (6.9%). What economist Kathryn Edwards finds worrying is that these new workers, who are typically a lagging economic indicator, may in this case be a bellwether of a weakening economy.  Support the Optimist Economy podcast by becoming a paid subscriber on Substack, or donating at https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy Complete show notes with links to articles and data at optimisteconomy.com. You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram -------- Read More: The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates [New York Fed, 2025] Hires, from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey [St. Louis Fed, 2025] Downskilling: changes in employer skill requirements over the business cycle [Labour Economics 2016] Upskilling: Do Employers Demand Greater Skill When Workers Are Plentiful? [The Review of Economics and Statistics 2020]

A certain kind of wealthy American has been griping out loud lately — about taxes, about progressive cities, about how unappreciated they are for the jobs they create, the stuff they buy, and the tips they hand out. A narrative is coalescing around them too: that the top 10% of earners now do so much of the spending, the U.S. economy relies on them. But an economy that depends so much on the people at the top isn't the healthy one the country deserves — it’s just wearing a nice suit. Chapters: 00:00:56 Announcements: Q&A episode questions wanted 00:01:18 Retcon: The 86 debate; FDR's full "calamity howling executives" quote 00:05:32 Terms & Conditions: Wealth Effect and Zugzwang 00:09:26 Big Pilcrow: Should we cherish the ultra-wealthy? 00:36:41 Executive Orders: Retire "mummies"; union credits on red carpets 00:39:34 Spiritual Sponsors: Mellow Cello podcast; enormous floral arrangements Further Reading Moody's claim that the top 10% of earners now drive nearly half of consumer spending in the WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/us-economy-strength-rich-spending-2c34a571 The Minneapolis Fed on what the underlying data actually shows. https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026/have-us-consumers-gone-k-shaped-a-review-of-the-data Wealthy part-time New Yorkers reacting to a proposed pied-à-terre tax in the Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/3283eaab-e9cf-41e6-a028-5a02fb6f4615 The Wall Street Journal on second-home taxes spreading from New York City to other states, including the San Diego homeowner who'd like to be cherished. https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/taxes-on-second-homes-are-springing-up-across-america-93a64448 Full reading list at https://optimisteconomy.substack.com Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Find utility with our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to [email protected]

It wasn’t just hourly factory jobs that were supposed to come with a 40-hour workweek. Even salaried jobs were supposed to get overtime pay, though very few do do anymore. Overtime protections are the only legal mechanism enforcing work-hour limits, and for 50 years, the salary threshold that determines who qualifies to receive overtime has been left to erode. Employers found another workaround too: just call the sandwich maker a "sandwich manager." Now, the new no-tax-on-overtime deduction isn't protecting workers — it's rewarding the kind of overwork it was overtime was originally designed to punish. Fixing the law governing overtime would be a huge and instant boost not just to the U.S. economy, but to our work-life balance. Chapters: 00:01:43 Announcements 00:02:32 Retcon: Economic data reliability 00:05:54 Terms & Conditions: Tenterhooks; Perquisite  00:08:23 Big Pilcrow: Overtime  00:45:27 Executive Orders: Badge of shame for working past 40 hours; more colorful cars 00:46:52 Spiritual Sponsors: Awesome first bosses; Faraday e-bike Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch clips on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Find utility with our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to [email protected]

Cash is dirty, inconvenient, and so last century. Some 70% of Americans under age 50 think its days are numbered. But we still need those greenbacks, if as an alternative to banks. More than 4% of households are “unbanked,” and three times as many are “underbanked,” meaning bank services mostly don’t work for them, so rely on services like check cashers or payday lenders. And that's before you get to the racial disparities in who banks approve for credit. Reviving banking services at the post office might be one way to help the unbanked and keep from handing yet more power to the finance sector.  Chapters: 00:00:48 Announcements 00:02:30  Retcon: Semiquincentennia  00:03:35 Terms & Conditions: ChexSystems, Unbanked 00:05:46  Big Pilcrow: What’s keeping the U.S. from going cashless? 00:38:28  Executive Orders: Regulate youth sports schedules; Airline baggage fees by weight. 00:40:56  Spiritual Sponsors: Artemis splashdown; Friends with season tickets. Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video clips available at the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. You can also search for us on Facebook and chat with other Optimists on Substack. Consume leisure while donning Optimist merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Have a questions for our next Q&A? Send it to [email protected]

Consumer sentiment is in the basement. Jobs aren't being added. Prices keep climbing. GDP barely grew at the end of 2025, and a ‘meh’ 2% last quarter. Shouldn’t this be a recession? Not so far. Economist Kathryn Anne Edwards walks through the clear cause of each bad number: Tariffs explain the prices and foul mood. Mass deportations explain the jobs. The government shutdown explained last quarter. Still, knowing the passing reasons for economic pain doesn't make it hurt less. And none of it changes the long-term economic reforms we still need. Chapters:  00:01:06 Announcements 00:01:57 Retcon: Wealth at retirement 00:03:52 Terms & Conditions: Recession, Slack, Tight, Loose, Goodflation/Badflation 00:09:10 Centerpiece: What is going on with the U.S. Economy right now? The vibe is don’t panic. But don’t not panic.  00:53:38 Executive Orders: Free work parking. Legislators do their own taxes. 00:55:00 Spiritual Sponsors: Genre-specific bookstores and great newstands Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Hey, we are on Facebook! Follow us! Or,  on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Or on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. You need this hat: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Send us your economic questions and concerns at [email protected]