Is the UAE&apos;s departure from OPEC mostly about Gulf geopolitics and kings defending their regimes, or the outlook for oil demand? There is, as ever, a lot of context required to answer this question.Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate Mackenzie, and Tim Sahay from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author <a href='https://thepolycrisis.org/'>The Polycrisis newsletter</a>, which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry. <ul><li>Produced by Sarah Allely</li><li>Original music by Russell Stapleton</li><li>Mixed by Bethany Stewart</li></ul>Contact us at: polycrisispodcast@gmail.comLinks:<a href='https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/magazine/united-arab-emirates-mohammed-bin-zayed.html'>Mohammed bin Zayed&apos;s Dark Vision of the Middle East -  NYT, September 2020 </a><a href='https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-05/how-midnight-opec-dealmaking-won-gulf-unity-at-africa-s-expense'>How Midnight OPEC Dealmaking Won Gulf Unity at Africa’s Expense</a> - Bloomberg, June 2023

<description>&lt;p&gt;Is the UAE&amp;apos;s departure from OPEC mostly about Gulf geopolitics and kings defending their regimes, or the outlook for oil demand? There is, as ever, a lot of context required to answer this question.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Hosted by energy and climate finance expert &lt;b&gt;Kate Mackenzie&lt;/b&gt;, and &lt;b&gt;Tim Sahay&lt;/b&gt; from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author &lt;a href='https://thepolycrisis.org/'&gt;&lt;b&gt;The Polycrisis newsletter&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;b&gt;Produced by Sarah Allely&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;b&gt;Original music by Russell Stapleton&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;b&gt;Mixed by Bethany Stewart&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;p&gt;Contact us at: polycrisispodcast@gmail.com&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Links:&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href='https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/magazine/united-arab-emirates-mohammed-bin-zayed.html'&gt;Mohammed bin Zayed&amp;apos;s Dark Vision of the Middle East -  NYT, September 2020 &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href='https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-05/how-midnight-opec-dealmaking-won-gulf-unity-at-africa-s-expense'&gt;How Midnight OPEC Dealmaking Won Gulf Unity at Africa’s Expense&lt;/a&gt; - Bloomberg, June 2023  &lt;/p&gt;</description>

Is the UAE's departure from OPEC mostly about Gulf geopolitics and kings defending their regimes, or the outlook for oil demand? There is, as ever, a lot of context required to answer this question. Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate Mackenzie, and Tim Sahay from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author The Polycrisis newsletter, which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry.  Produced by S...

02 | Demand Destruction | OPEC drama kings

In this first bonus episode, we discuss why the Middle East war is accelerating the destruction of demand for fossil fuels, and why the US won’t become the new provider of &quot;geopolitically secure” oil and gas.We also argue about whether the data is sufficient – *yet* – to prove our point that this is already happening. Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate Mackenzie, and Tim Sahay from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author <a href='https://thepolycrisis.org/'>The Polycrisis newsletter</a>, which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry. <ul><li>Produced by Sarah Allely</li><li>Original music by Russell Stapleton</li><li>Mixed by Bethany Stewart</li></ul>Contact us at: polycrisispodcast@gmail.comLinks:<a href='https://ig.ft.com/global-energy-flows/'>America’s bid for energy supremacy is being forged in war</a> - Big Financial Times story setting out the “US is geopolitically secure energy provider” argument. With excellent data viz. <a href='https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-16/iran-war-pushes-asia-to-think-twice-before-doubling-down-on-lng?embedded-checkout=true'>Iran War Pushes Asia to Think Twice Before Doubling Down on LNG - Bloomberg  </a>One of the most persuasive anecdotal demonstrations that assumptions about LNG demand now have to be completely revised. “Bloomberg News spoke to more than two dozen executives, traders and analysts across Asia, who painted a picture of a region that had been thought of as the future of LNG, but is now rapidly losing faith in the super-chilled fuel.”<a href='https://substack.com/@geoeconomic/note/p-195456222'>US is making Europe pay dearly for its half-hearted electrification</a> - Cornel Ban, Geoeconomic newsletter. Highlights how Europe’s slow energy transition has left it vulnerable to US energy predation. Echoes some of the arguments in the <a href='https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Escaping-the-Permanent-Suez.pdf'>Permanent Suez </a>report that Tim co-authored in early 2024.  <a href='https://www.ft.com/content/6bf153e4-11af-44d5-9d1c-48b5c7ad26ef?syn-25a6b1a6=1'>US ambassador to Europe threatens to remove “privileged” access to LNG </a>- FT, March 24, 2026

<description>&lt;p&gt;In this first bonus episode, we discuss why the Middle East war is accelerating the destruction of demand for fossil fuels, and why the US won’t become the new provider of &amp;quot;geopolitically secure” oil and gas.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We also argue about whether the data is sufficient – *yet* – to prove our point that this is already happening. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Hosted by energy and climate finance expert &lt;b&gt;Kate Mackenzie&lt;/b&gt;, and &lt;b&gt;Tim Sahay&lt;/b&gt; from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author &lt;a href='https://thepolycrisis.org/'&gt;&lt;b&gt;The Polycrisis newsletter&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;b&gt;Produced by Sarah Allely&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;b&gt;Original music by Russell Stapleton&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;b&gt;Mixed by Bethany Stewart&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;p&gt;Contact us at: polycrisispodcast@gmail.com&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Links:&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href='https://ig.ft.com/global-energy-flows/'&gt;&lt;b&gt;America’s bid for energy supremacy is being forged in war&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;b&gt; &lt;/b&gt;- Big Financial Times story setting out the “US is geopolitically secure energy provider” argument. With excellent data viz. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href='https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-16/iran-war-pushes-asia-to-think-twice-before-doubling-down-on-lng?embedded-checkout=true'&gt;&lt;b&gt;Iran War Pushes Asia to Think Twice Before Doubling Down on LNG - Bloomberg  &lt;/b&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;One of the most persuasive anecdotal demonstrations that assumptions about LNG demand now have to be completely revised. “Bloomberg News spoke to more than two dozen executives, traders and analysts across Asia, who painted a picture of a region that had been thought of as the future of LNG, but is now rapidly losing faith in the super-chilled fuel.”&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href='https://substack.com/@geoeconomic/note/p-195456222'&gt;&lt;b&gt;US is making Europe pay dearly for its half-hearted electrification&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/a&gt; - Cornel Ban, Geoeconomic newsletter. Highlights how Europe’s slow energy transition has left it vulnerable to US energy predation. Echoes some of the arguments in the &lt;a href='https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Escaping-the-Permanent-Suez.pdf'&gt;&lt;b&gt;Permanent Suez &lt;/b&gt;&lt;/a&gt;report that Tim co-authored in early 2024. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a href='https://www.ft.com/content/6bf153e4-11af-44d5-9d1c-48b5c7ad26ef?syn-25a6b1a6=1'&gt;&lt;b&gt;US ambassador to Europe threatens to remove “privileged” access to LNG&lt;/b&gt; &lt;/a&gt;- FT, March 24, 2026&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>

In this first bonus episode, we discuss why the Middle East war is accelerating the destruction of demand for fossil fuels, and why the US won’t become the new provider of "geopolitically secure” oil and gas. We also argue about whether the data is sufficient – *yet* – to prove our point that this is already happening.  Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate Mackenzie, and Tim Sahay from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author The Polycris...

01 | Demand Destruction | US oil is not winning the Iran war

Can the US stop the electric wave? In 2022 the US introduced its first ever set of serious climate policies. That took an unprecedented collaboration of racial justice, environment and labour interests. But oil and gas interests fought back quickly and effectively. Now the 2nd Trump administration is using sanctions, trade wars, and military power in a bid to slow the energy transition. Guests: Rhiana Gunn-Wright - Advisor to NY Mayor Zohran Mamdani, former climate policy program director at the Roosevelt Institute Ted Fertik  - Vice President, manufacturing and industrial policy, Blue-Green Alliance; formerly of the Working Families Party.Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate Mackenzie, and Tim Sahay from the net zero industrial policy lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author <a href='https://thepolycrisis.org/'>The Polycrisis newsletter</a>, which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry. <ul><li>Produced by Sarah Allely</li><li>Music composed by Russell Stapleton</li><li>Mixed by Bethany Stewart</li></ul>Contact us at: polycrisispodcast@gmail.com

<description>&lt;p&gt;Can the US stop the electric wave? In 2022 the US introduced its first ever set of serious climate policies. That took an unprecedented collaboration of racial justice, environment and labour interests. But oil and gas interests fought back quickly and effectively. Now the 2nd Trump administration is using sanctions, trade wars, and military power in a bid to slow the energy transition. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Guests: &lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Rhiana Gunn-Wright&lt;/b&gt; - Advisor to NY Mayor Zohran Mamdani, former climate policy program director at the Roosevelt Institute&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Ted Fertik &lt;/b&gt; - Vice President, manufacturing and industrial policy, Blue-Green Alliance; formerly of the Working Families Party.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Hosted by energy and climate finance expert &lt;b&gt;Kate Mackenzie&lt;/b&gt;, and &lt;b&gt;Tim Sahay&lt;/b&gt; from the net zero industrial policy lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author &lt;a href='https://thepolycrisis.org/'&gt;&lt;b&gt;The Polycrisis newsletter&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;b&gt;Produced by Sarah Allely&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;b&gt;Music composed by Russell Stapleton&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;b&gt;Mixed by Bethany Stewart&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;p&gt;Contact us at: polycrisispodcast@gmail.com&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>

Can the US stop the electric wave? In 2022 the US introduced its first ever set of serious climate policies. That took an unprecedented collaboration of racial justice, environment and labour interests. But oil and gas interests fought back quickly and effectively. Now the 2nd Trump administration is using sanctions, trade wars, and military power in a bid to slow the energy transition.  Guests:  Rhiana Gunn-Wright - Advisor to NY Mayor Zohran Mamdani, former climate policy program ...

05 | Electric World Order | The US counterrevolution

China didn’t set out to fix climate change. Its production of clean energy and electrification tech is changing the world, but this particular green revolution is a byproduct of China’s economic strategy and its quest for energy independence. The global financial crisis, the US shale boom, and the US attitude towards China have all contributed to China’s new dominance of clean energy manufacturing.Guests: <a href='https://www.jessicachenweiss.com/'>Jessica Chen Weiss</a>  - Professor of China Studies and the faculty director of the Institute for America, China, and the Future of Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC<a href='https://quincyinst.org/author/jake-werner/'>Jake Werner</a> - Director of the East Asia Program, Quincy Institute for Responsible StatecraftHosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate Mackenzie, and Tim Sahay from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author <a href='https://thepolycrisis.org/'>The Polycrisis newsletter</a>, which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry. <ul><li>Produced by Sarah Allely</li><li>Original music by Russell Stapleton</li><li>Mixed by Bethany Stewart</li></ul>Contact us at: polycrisispodcast@gmail.comLinks: Jessica Chen Weiss in 2024; &quot;<a href='https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-new-rare-earth-and-magnet-restrictions-threaten-us-defense-supply-chains'>The Case Against the China Consensus</a>&quot;, Foreign Affairs CSIS note on the <a href='https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-new-rare-earth-and-magnet-restrictions-threaten-us-defense-supply-chains'>implications of China&apos;s rare earths export controls</a> for US military and semiconductor manufacturing

<description>&lt;p&gt;China didn’t set out to fix climate change. Its production of clean energy and electrification tech is changing the world, but this particular green revolution is a byproduct of China’s economic strategy and its quest for energy independence. The global financial crisis, the US shale boom, and the US attitude towards China have all contributed to China’s new dominance of clean energy manufacturing.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Guests: &lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href='https://www.jessicachenweiss.com/'&gt;&lt;b&gt;Jessica Chen Weiss&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/a&gt;  - Professor of China Studies and the faculty director of the Institute for America, China, and the Future of Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href='https://quincyinst.org/author/jake-werner/'&gt;&lt;b&gt;Jake Werner&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/a&gt; - Director of the East Asia Program, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Hosted by energy and climate finance expert &lt;b&gt;Kate Mackenzie&lt;/b&gt;, and &lt;b&gt;Tim Sahay&lt;/b&gt; from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author &lt;a href='https://thepolycrisis.org/'&gt;&lt;b&gt;The Polycrisis newsletter&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;b&gt;Produced by Sarah Allely&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;b&gt;Original music by Russell Stapleton&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;b&gt;Mixed by Bethany Stewart&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;p&gt;Contact us at: polycrisispodcast@gmail.com&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Links:&lt;/b&gt; &lt;br/&gt;Jessica Chen Weiss in 2024; &amp;quot;&lt;a href='https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-new-rare-earth-and-magnet-restrictions-threaten-us-defense-supply-chains'&gt;The Case Against the China Consensus&lt;/a&gt;&amp;quot;, Foreign Affairs&lt;br/&gt;CSIS note on the &lt;a href='https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-new-rare-earth-and-magnet-restrictions-threaten-us-defense-supply-chains'&gt;implications of China&amp;apos;s rare earths export controls&lt;/a&gt; for US military and semiconductor manufacturing &lt;/p&gt;</description>

China didn’t set out to fix climate change. Its production of clean energy and electrification tech is changing the world, but this particular green revolution is a byproduct of China’s economic strategy and its quest for energy independence. The global financial crisis, the US shale boom, and the US attitude towards China have all contributed to China’s new dominance of clean energy manufacturing. Guests:  Jessica Chen Weiss  - Professor of China Studies and the faculty director of...

04 | Electric World Order | Manufacturing Chimerica

How is the Middle East war going to change the energy strategies of many countries? Global powers have long relied upon the threat of cutting off fossil energy flows – or the revenues from selling them – to discipline and coerce other countries. The US has done this for decades with oil. Five of the seven countries attacked by the US under the second Trump administration are rich in oil. But the emergence of cheap clean energy tech and electrification complicates the picture. What can history tell us about the motivations of the US around geopolitical dominance and energy? Even among the chaos of the current US administration, a desire to perpetuate a globally traded fossil fuel system persists. Oil-producing nations that depend on selling the stuff overseas face existential threats from the energy transition; but the US administration wants to keep oil use high so that it can exert global power. Guests: Helen Thompson - Professor of political economy, Cambridge University; former co-host of the London Review of Books’ “Talking Politics” podcastAlex Turnbull - Managing director, Sagax Capital; energy researcher, commodities and energy trader Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate MacKenzie, and Tim Sahay from the net zero industrial policy lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author <a href='https://thepolycrisis.org/'>The Polycrisis newsletter</a>, which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry. <ul><li>Produced by Sarah Allely</li><li>Original music by Russell Stapleton</li><li>Mixed by Bethany Stewart</li></ul>Contact us at: polycrisispodcast@gmail.com

<description>&lt;p&gt;How is the Middle East war going to change the energy strategies of many countries? &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Global powers have long relied upon the threat of cutting off fossil energy flows – or the revenues from selling them – to discipline and coerce other countries. The US has done this for decades with oil. Five of the seven countries attacked by the US under the second Trump administration are rich in oil. But the emergence of cheap clean energy tech and electrification complicates the picture. What can history tell us about the motivations of the US around geopolitical dominance and energy? &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Even among the chaos of the current US administration, a desire to perpetuate a globally traded fossil fuel system persists. Oil-producing nations that depend on selling the stuff overseas face existential threats from the energy transition; but the US administration wants to keep oil use high so that it can exert global power&lt;b&gt;. &lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Guests: &lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Helen Thompson&lt;/b&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;em&gt; &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;em&gt;- &lt;/em&gt;Professor of political economy, Cambridge University; former co-host of the London Review of Books’ “&lt;em&gt;Talking Politic&lt;/em&gt;s” podcast&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Alex Turnbull&lt;/b&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;em&gt; &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;em&gt;- &lt;/em&gt;Managing director, Sagax Capital; energy researcher, commodities and energy trader&lt;em&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Hosted by energy and climate finance expert &lt;b&gt;Kate MacKenzie&lt;/b&gt;, and &lt;b&gt;Tim Sahay&lt;/b&gt; from the net zero industrial policy lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author &lt;a href='https://thepolycrisis.org/'&gt;&lt;b&gt;The Polycrisis newsletter&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;b&gt;,&lt;/b&gt; which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;b&gt;Produced by Sarah Allely&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;b&gt;Original music by Russell Stapleton&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;b&gt;Mixed by Bethany Stewart&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;p&gt;Contact us at: polycrisispodcast@gmail.com&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>

How is the Middle East war going to change the energy strategies of many countries?  Global powers have long relied upon the threat of cutting off fossil energy flows – or the revenues from selling them – to discipline and coerce other countries. The US has done this for decades with oil. Five of the seven countries attacked by the US under the second Trump administration are rich in oil. But the emergence of cheap clean energy tech and electrification complicates the picture. What can h...

03 | Electric World Order | Demand destruction

Tim Sahay and Kate Mackenzie on &nbsp;how geopolitics has been driving a quiet revolution in clean tech, and how the energy transition is in turn reshaping world power.&nbsp;

The Polycrisis

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