The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more
The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

Dominic Frisby

Overview
Episodes

Details

Readings of brilliant articles from the Flying Frisby. Occasional super-fascinating interviews. Market commentary, investment ideas, alternative health, some social commentary and more, all with a massive libertarian bias. www.theflyingfrisby.com

Recent Episodes

My Terrible Predictions, My Terrific Portfolio
DEC 21, 2025
My Terrible Predictions, My Terrific Portfolio
<p>Good Sunday to you, </p><p>Before we begin, let me flag this week’s commentary. </p><p>This a trade with a remarkably successful hit rate, a clear timescale and a relatively easy risk to manage - you know pretty quickly if it isn’t working. 8 of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/turning-tax-losses-into-gains-your">last year’s 9 ideas</a> worked. By my reckoning you will find the biggest bargains of the year tomorrow, Monday December 22, and Tuesday December 23. So take a look: </p><p>Right, so today I am marking my own homework.</p><p>Every year, as old timer’s will know, I like to offer some predictions for the year ahead - usually 10, but with inflation being what it is, it ends up higher. </p><p>Today we look back and see how I did. </p><p>The usual disclaimers apply - the more outlandish the prediction, the more entertaining - so the more likely I am to make it. But the less likely it is to actually happen. I try to strike a balance …</p><p>As events change, so do opinions. Process is gradual. But when you jump a year, with no scope to revise as events turn in a different direction, quoted out of context and with the benefit of hindsight, predictions can look really, really stupid. Don’t judge me, bro.</p><p>I often find that the worse my predictions, the better my portfolio performs, which is odd, but there you go.</p><p>If you want to read last year’s piece in full, it’s here. But I’ll quote quite copiously below.</p><p>A reminder of the scoring system: 2 points for a direct hit, 1 for a quite good, 0 for a miss, and -1 for an epic fail, giving me a maximum of 30 and a minimum of -10. </p><p>How did I do? Let’s find out. </p><p><strong>1. The long overdue correction in the UK housing market finally begins.</strong></p><p>You can <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/i/154324293/the-long-overdue-correction-in-the-uk-housing-market-finally-begins">read my reasoning here</a>, but it boiled down to: richer people being net sellers as they leave the UK, few foreign buyers, fewer buyers more generally because of high moving costs (Stamp Duty etc), little bullish sentiment in the economy meaning a reluctance to borrow and invest and the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/when-are-house-prices-going-to-crash?r=1o6vt&#38;utm_campaign=post&#38;utm_medium=web">18-year-property cycle</a> turning down.</p><p>What actually happened is by no means clearcut, but I’ll try and summarise.</p><p>Price growth and transaction volume were relatively high in the first 3 months, until Stamp Duty changes came into effect in April, after which the market became “subdued”. Overall, the north saw some increase, while London fell 2.4% in the year to October. Average growth was 1.7%, which is some 2% below official inflation rates - real inflation is of course much higher - meaning there have been price falls in real terms. This is even with the Bank of England bringing rates down, thereby enabling more money to enter the market via increased borrowing.Overall, transactions volumes increased by 9% on 2024, to get back in line with the 10-year average, though there is a very different story at the upper end of the market.</p><p>The housing market has big problems, especially in the south, but it hasn’t cratered - though nor has it soared. I’m giving myself 1 point. </p><p><strong>2. Keir Starmer survives</strong></p><p>Everyone thought he was toast this time last year - and he is - but my argument that “it’s too early for Labour MPs, worrying about their seats, to give him the shove” prevailed. 2 points. </p><p><strong>3. Gold hits $3,000.</strong></p><p>And the rest. It’s $4,300 as I write and going higher. I was too conservative. 1 point. </p><p><p><strong><em>BTW. If you live in a Third World Country such as the UK, I urge you to </em></strong><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><strong><em>own gold or silver</em></strong></a><strong><em>. The pound is going to be further devalued. The bullion dealer I recommend is </em></strong><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><strong><em>The Pure Gold Company</em></strong></a><strong><em>. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. </em></strong><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><strong><em>More here.</em></strong></a></p></p><p><strong>4. Microstrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) becomes a top 100 company by market cap.</strong></p><p>Oops. When Strategy hit $450 in July, its market cap would have been around $130 billion, making it perhaps a top 300 company but not a top 100. It would have needed to get above about $250 billion to make the cut. </p><p>And since then it has the skids so badly it’s now <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/the-annual-tax-loss-fire-sale-ten?r=1o6vt&#38;utm_campaign=post&#38;utm_medium=web&#38;showWelcomeOnShare=false">a tax loss opportunity.</a></p><p>-1.</p><p><strong>5. Bitcoin goes to $200,000 then crashes</strong></p><p>I got the crash bit right. Sort of. $126k was the high, having begun the year at $91k. Today it’s $88k. 0 points.</p><p><strong>6. Sterling has big problems</strong></p><p>Nope. It’s had a good year. -1.</p><p><strong>7. X thrives, Blue Sky dies, Blogging Blue Skies</strong></p><p>Well sort of. X saw strong numbers growth in the first part of the year, but these have tailed off. It is now a key place to go for breaking news and a leading news app, but by no means the Governor. The exodus to Blue Sky has slowed, but BS (LOL) is still growing albeit at a much slower rate. Blogging, as evidenced by Substack, is thriving. I’ll give myself 1 point.</p><p><strong>8. The S&P500 Rises 10%</strong></p><p>15% actually. We predicted a decent year, despite year 1 of the electoral cycle tending to be the weakest. 1 point. Do I get 2? Nah.</p><p><strong>9. Oil ranges.</strong></p><p>Oil would neither crater nor moonshot, we argued. We saw a range of $60-90. Its actually been $55-80. 1 point.</p><p><strong>10. Small Caps Thrive</strong></p><p>The Russell 2000 has had a good year - rising 12% - but the large caps are still winning. 1 point.</p><p><strong>11. The US Dollar Index breaks out to 20-year highs.</strong> </p><p>Oops. I was looking for a high around 117 in the US$ index. It didn’t get above 110. It fell! -1</p><p><strong>12. The BRICS don’t come out with a proper US dollar alternative … yet</strong></p><p>Everyone says it’s coming, but it never actually does. 2 points.</p><p><strong>13. </strong><a target="_blank" href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/how-i-am-playing-the-boom-in-silver"><strong>Silver</strong></a><strong> disappoints … as always</strong></p><p>$33 is the high, $22 the low, I said. Ha! $28 was the low, and the high - $68. To be fair to myself, I said multiple times it was going to $50 and if it gets above there it goes to $90+, but the call was still an epic fail. </p><p>Irony: silver has been a huge winner for readers this year and our pick, Sierra Madre Gold and Silver (SM.V), has been a joy to own. From 45c north of $1.50 :(</p><p>I still get -1 though.</p><p><strong>14. Despite all the crap, the world becomes a better place to live.</strong></p><p>We live longer, we eat better, tech keeps improving things. We advance. AI makes us more productive and betters living standards.</p><p>It’s so obvious I can’t believe I even said it. I’ll give myself a point, but not 2.</p><p><strong>15. Your Bruce-y bonus sports prediction.</strong></p><p>Liverpool win the league. Ipswich, Southampton, and Leicester all go down.</p><p>Bullseye. I should take up sports betting. 2 points.</p><p>I don’t actually follow football any more, but one of my son’s told me that’s what would happen.</p><p>So, overall, a very poor showing for the DF Predictions, possibly my poorest year ever: totalling a measly 7 points.</p><p>And, as always seems to be case, a much better year for my portfolio of companies. </p><p>Here’s hoping I get all next year’s predictions similarly wrong.</p><p>I’ll be making those early next year - so look out for that.</p><p>Thank you so much for being a subscriber to the Flying Frisby. I wish you and your family a very happy Christmas. Don’t eat too much, go easy on the booze, pray, sing, get plenty of exercise, avoid toxic people and the lurgy, and be thankful for the many good things there are in your life.</p><p>Once again - I urge you to take a look at the tax loss opportunities. Tomorrow and Tuesday are the buy days.</p><p>Here’s to a healthy, wealthy 2025. </p><p>Until next time,</p><p>Dominic</p><p>PS This Wednesday being Christmas Eve I almost certainly won’t be putting out any commentary.</p><p></p><p></p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_2">www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe</a>
play-circle icon
8 MIN
Taxing Ourselves Into Oblivion
DEC 14, 2025
Taxing Ourselves Into Oblivion
<p></p><p>I was having breakfast with my son, daughter-in-law and grand child earlier in the week. He is 25, she is 24, and baby is 5 weeks old.</p><p>They’re both pretty successful in their jobs - both in sales, on commission, so very much performance-based - and they both work very hard. They are ambitious. They want a big house with a big family, and plenty of money to live off. Pretty normal ambitions, really, and once upon a time not so impossible to achieve.</p><p>I’m extremely proud of them both for having gone against the grain and had their first child so young. I’m also proud of how they have both adapted to parenthood. They live with me, so I see every day how utterly devoted they are, how much effort they put in, how they are learning and flourishing. The way Millie has thrown herself into motherhood and totally dedicated herself to her child is a thing to behold. Breast feeding on demand, everything. It really is a joy to see.</p><p>Because they’ve started a family young, there is a very real chance they will go on to have a very big family. They both say that is what they want. </p><p>My son, Samuel, has now gone back to work, while Millie is on maternity leave. But having both made several successful deals, and with a backlog of outstanding commission coming payable too, they found themselves between them paying £26,000 of taxes last month - 50% of the £53,000 they earned was taken, when you factor in the student loans they have to repay. (They might get some of that back at the end of the year).</p><p>To earn that kind of money in a month at such a young age is just brilliant - I see how hard both of them work, the hours they put in, early morning after early morning, late night after late night, the persistence - and I’m proud of them. It is not easy. None of their university colleagues are doing anything like as well, at least in financial terms.</p><p>With the bonanza month they both had, they could have paid off significant chunks of their student loans. But no such luck. The tax man cometh first.</p><p>Meanwhile, they are so far from being able to buy a house for their young family - not just in the area they grew up, but anywhere in Greater London - it’s a joke. I like having them live with me, don’t get me wrong, but the fact that even a couple as successful as this are miles away from owning a property of reasonable enough size to start a family makes my blood boil.</p><p>We live in a Victorian terraced house in South London that was built 150 years ago for a working-class man and his family. Yet a working-class man could never afford to buy this house now, even though it’s 150 years old - never mind the highest-earning couple in their peer group.</p><p>The most commonly given reason why people do not have bigger families earlier in life is expense. And what is the <a target="_blank" href="https://amzn.to/49bhvag">greatest expense in your life</a>? Altogether now, “your government”. By far and away. Lower that expense and people will have bigger families again, earlier in life. </p><p>(Even the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/why-you-will-never-to-be-able-to">cost of housing itself</a> - the second biggest expense in a typical life - would come down with less government - less planning permission, less building regulation, less market intervention for political ends, less fiat and so on).</p><p>Quite a few of the houses in our street are owned by the council. An old lady who lived in one of them recently died, and her house was given to a Somali family. So the taxes that Samuel and Millie are paying, and would like to have been able to use towards their own family, are being used to house another family not just from another country, but another continent never mind another culture. I’ve no doubt their needs are great. They get the house they need. We pay. How many more families not from the UK are we expected to sponsor - and delay/minimize our own procreation for?</p><p>We are literally taxing our own to enable to the procreation of others. As I say in the title, we are taxing ourselves into oblivion.</p><p>“Have you ever known taxes to actually go down?” My son asked me.</p><p>“Well,” I said. “They came down a bit in 1980s under Thatcher”.</p><p>It might feel relatively recent to me, but that was a good 15 years - half a generation - before my son was born in 2000. And even under Thatcher and Reagan, it’s worth remembering, the state actually grew.</p><p>The state continued to grow in the 90s and 00s, and, by the time you factor in all the various stealth taxes that got introduced, not least fiscal drag - perhaps the most odious of the lot - as well as currency debasement, so did taxes.</p><p>Now, because of fiscal drag, you see teachers paying higher rates of Income Tax. It’s not in any way exceptional in London to earn more than 50 grand. You haven’t got a hope of having any kind of lifestyle, if you don’t. I dread to think how many Londoners - those that work hard at least - are paying higher rates of tax. And for what?</p><p>What chance do these people have of buying a home and starting a family?</p><p>And all this money is being taken to spent on what, exactly? Not potholes, that’s for sure.</p><p>I think the question my son was really asking was, “Is there any chance taxes come down?”</p><p>Well, if you look at Britain since World War II - actually since World War I - the growth in the state has been relentless and inexorable. So the rise in taxes we must pay has been inexorable. I’m not just talking about Income Tax. As I say, I’m talking about all the stealth taxes and debasement of currency as well. Is there any realistic chance they’ll come down? Liz Truss only tried to slash government spending by two and a half percent. And look what that did.</p><p>It’s incredible to think that at the turn of the 20th century taxation - or the state - amounted to less than 10% of GDP.</p><p>Even if Reform were to win the next election, how would they realistically cut state spending by more than a couple or three percent? The institutional resistance - the blob, the civil service, the quangos, the media - would fight them at every turn. </p><p>In short, taxes are unlikely to come down by anything meaningful.</p><p>We cannot get this country purged until the currency collapses. That’s the only way I see it happening. It’s very sad. </p><p><p><em>If you live in a Third World Country such as the UK, I urge you to </em><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><em>own gold or silver</em></a><em>. The pound is going to be further devalued. The bullion dealer I recommend is </em><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><em>The Pure Gold Company</em></a><em>. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. </em><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><em>More here.</em></a></p></p><p>My son, who is not particularly political, observes the absurdity of it: many people who build wealth, the most productive and talented, are leaving because of high taxes, and we replace net contributors with net takers. The country is systematically driving away the people who create value while importing those who consume it. It’s economic suicide by design.</p><p>As <a target="_blank" href="https://amzn.to/49bhvag">readers of Daylight Robbery </a>will know, I regard taxation as the best measure of freedom there is. The more heavily taxed societies - where obviously there is limited economic freedom - tend to be the societies where there is limited freedom of speech, freedom of movement, freedom of thought, freedom to experiment and all the rest of it.</p><p>Freedom of movement in the UK is limited by the cost of movement - whether it’s transport costs, petrol costs, Stamp Duty, fines, charges, new mileage taxes - all reduce movement. They’re all a tax. There might not be laws preventing movement in the way there once were if you were, say, a serf, but taxes give you a similar outcome. They restrict movement - and thus possibility - because people cannot afford to move.</p><p>You don’t need me to demonstrate how freedom of both thought and speech are being attacked. The two-tier justice system sees people committing violent crimes getting released early - indeed often not even getting convicted - while people who just said words get locked up.</p><p>I’m sorry to say it, but I don’t think even Farage and Reform can turn this one around, particularly when Farage is watering a lot of his policies down in order to give the media less to smear him with, and make himself more electorally palatable. Starmer did something not so totally dissimilar.</p><p>And if something should happen to Farage, what then? What would Reform be without him? I like Richard Tice a lot, but there is not exactly a huge queue of people waiting to fill Farage’s boots.</p><p><p>Tell someone about this great article.</p></p><p>So I come back to my point that I’ve made on these pages many times. If you are young and wanting to build a good life for yourself, and you want to be rewarded for the hard work you put in, your chance of doing that in the UK is limited. You’re best off going somewhere else. Sorry to sound negative. There are many things to be positive about in this world, but the future of taxation and freedom in the UK is not one of them.</p><p>Remember<a target="_blank" href="https://amzn.to/49bhvag"> the golden rule of Daylight Robbery</a>: fix taxation, everything else follows.</p><p>But there is no sign of us doing that.</p><p>Until next time,</p><p>Dominic</p><p>ICYMI, here is this week’s commentary - also prepping for the North American tax loss trade.</p><p>And, finally, I appeared on the <a target="_blank" href="https://tomwoods.com/ep-2716-who-enslaved-the-most-and-other-questions-with-dominic-frisby/">mighty Tom Woods Show</a> this week. I love Tom, and he is fast becoming one of my best buddies. Here are links to the interview on Apple podcasts, Spotify and YouTube.</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_2">www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe</a>
play-circle icon
9 MIN
3 Ways to Profit from the Boom in Illegal Immigration
DEC 10, 2025
3 Ways to Profit from the Boom in Illegal Immigration
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit <a href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_7">www.theflyingfrisby.com</a><br/><br/><p></p><p>Before we come to the main thrust of today’s piece, there is something I need to flag. We are just coming into North American tax loss selling season, and a number of you have asked if I will be putting together a portfolio of tax loss trades this year.</p><p>The answer is, “maybe”.</p><p>I’m not sure how well it will work this year for reasons you are about to find out, but it’s something I am still considering, and I will I try to have a list of options for next week’s missive. By my reckoning the dates when you’ll find the biggest bargains this year will be <strong>Friday December 19, Monday December 22 </strong>and<strong> Tuesday December 23,</strong> though the window stretches from next week all the way to New Year’s Eve.</p><p>What am I talking about?</p><p>At the end of the year in the US and Canada, investors (both retail and institutions) sell their worst performing stocks in order to realise losses to offset against gains elsewhere in order to reduce their tax bill.</p><p>This selling tends to climax in the last two or three days of trading before Christmas and it means badly performing stocks, particularly illiquid ones, get way oversold only to experience something of a rally in the first few weeks of the following year as the selling dissipates.</p><p>So the trade is simple: buy as the selling climaxes and then flip sometime in February (my Canadian broker says March and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/turning-tax-losses-into-gains-your">last year this proved very true</a>).</p><p>Nothing is guaranteed in this cruel world (except the further debasement of your national currency), but it is a trade with a remarkably successful hit rate, and a clear timescale. It also becomes apparent pretty quickly if it isn’t working, enabling you to exit any losers early.</p><p><p><strong><em>If you live in a Third World Country such as the UK, I urge you to </em></strong><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><strong><em>own gold or silver</em></strong></a><strong><em>. The pound is going to be further devalued. The bullion dealer I recommend is </em></strong><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><strong><em>The Pure Gold Company</em></strong></a><strong><em>. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. </em></strong><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><strong><em>More here.</em></strong></a></p></p><p>By all means <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/turning-tax-losses-into-gains-your">go back and audit me</a>, but last year I believe 8 of the 9 ideas worked.</p><p>Some picks work better than others. Some years work better than others, but gains of 20-50%, even doubles sometimes, are not uncommon. The trade works particularly well in smallcap Canadian resource stocks, as, when they are bad, they are really bad, and can get hugely oversold. However, this year Canadian resource stocks, particularly gold and silver miners, have had a bonanza year, so there won’t be much tax selling there. In fact, markets more generally have been strong, so there is not the normal flood of dogs to be sold. </p><p>However, I have some ideas. Crypto Treasury Companies, for example, could be big winners because of the huge losses they have generated. So keep an eye out and I will try and have something for you this time next week. Be ready to move quickly, as well, so have some cash to play with.</p><p>Right. Changing the subject. </p><p>Why both legal and illegal immigration is set to increase </p><p>I can’t go online now without seeing something about uncontrolled immigration. Yesterday saw the sentencing of two Afghan 17 year olds for raping a 15-year-old girl in Leamington Spa. (Spoiler: they weren’t 17. They’ve lied about their age, on that I’ll bet the house. Not that anyone in authority will have noticed). And it’s not just online, it’s in the world around me. I live in south London, so I see it all the time. I travel a lot around the country doing gigs and the changing demographics of the UK are everywhere, even in the remotest parts of the country. I think a little bit of immigration is a good thing, but this is happening too fast and on too big a scale.</p><p>When a business messes up badly, it goes bust and another, better run business comes along and does the job better. When a state body messes up badly, a load more money gets spent on an inquiry - in the case of the rape gangs £65 million - usually headed by a Blob insider (in this case Starmer appointed peer Baroness Anne Longfield). The mess gets whitewashed as much by time as anything, and the state body continues as before, dysfunctional as ever, if not more so.</p><p>Unlike those operating in a free market, the state as it currently functions, is incapable of reacting to the new realities of the world around us. There are more people than ever before in the world, and more of them than ever are on the move. Thanks to better planes, trains, boats and cars, they are able to move further and faster than ever before. Thanks to smart phones, which over 90% of the world’s adult population now has, better information about how and where to go gets spread. Smart phones also create FOMO - you gaze at the life you could have - so there is more desire to move than ever before. And the fact that 3 billion people earn less than $40/day means there is a greater urge to move than ever. This is the reality of the world in which we live. It is patently obvious mass migration of people is going to increase. </p><p>And yet the British government, nor most Western governments, have no plan in place to deal with it all. They can’t even deal with current levels of migration, let alone illegal migration or future migration. There has been no debate or agreement on what the right levels of migration should actually be. With no clarity, policy is, inevitably, both incoherent and inadequate. Promises by every government since Cameron’s coalition have been broken. The courts and legal system were designed for a different people in a different age and are no longer fit for purpose. This all assumes, of course, government could actually lower migration levels if it wanted, which I don’t believe it actually can because of sheer weight of numbers. Thanks to the ECHR and a general unwillingness within the Blob to address this, there is not even the ability to properly tackle this issue anyway. State institutions and infrastructure - from roads to health to education to welfare - cannot cope with the increased numbers and are crumbling. Wealth creators are leaving to be replaced by net takers, resulting in an increased tax burden and eventual likely bankruptcy of the country. Trust has gone and we are accelerating along the road to ruin.</p><p>Such repeated failure by a business over many years would result in the extinction of that business. But the state operates by a different set of rules, and the only thing that can end it is the destruction of the currency itself. Hence why I say own gold.</p><p>So that’s where we are. </p><p>Exploiting the end of Britain: blood money and crony capitalism </p><p>You can rant and rail and make a noise. But I don’t see what you or anyone can actually do about it. A Reform majority at the next election is what many are pinning their hopes on, but a hung parliament looks more likely. Would even a runaway win for Reform at the next election change much? I doubt it, myself. There’s too much opposition within the system. Liz Truss only tried to slash government spending by 2.5% and look what happened there. </p><p>As investors our job is not to pass moral judgement on the rights and wrongs of all this. Many think it’s a good thing the West gets destroyed! Our job is to navigate the waters as best we can. </p><p>As you know I urge readers to own non- government currencies, money they can’t debase - gold and bitcoin. </p><p>But having just said our job is not to pass moral judgement, I do pass moral judgement when I invest. I shouldn’t, but I do. I don’t buy government bonds, especially gilts, for example, because in doing so you enable government, when government is the problem. Starve the monster is my take. </p><p>I’m also not participating in the trade I am about to outline here, because it would make me feel dirty. But the more ruthless of you will be fine with it, and you’ll get no flack from me. I hate getting ripped off at airports and train stations, so I have a bit of WH Smith in my portfolio as an offset. This is a little bit like that.</p><p>There are companies making an absolute fortune from illegal migration. And while this situation continues, they are going to continue making money. Why shouldn’t you as well?</p><p>Their customer, the government, is a bureaucrat spending somebody else’s money so will pay pretty much whatever. Demand for their services is only going to increase as migration increases. There is no competitive marketplace - you’re not having to compete with other hotels, for example. These companies are all paid by the government - you in other words - to provide facilities for asylum seekers. The contracts are juicy, and those bureaucrat fingers are fat with taxpayer cash. </p><p>Here’s how to profit from illegal migration in the UK. </p>
play-circle icon
9 MIN
Sell the Cutlery: Why This Silver Bull Market Won't Last Forever
DEC 3, 2025
Sell the Cutlery: Why This Silver Bull Market Won't Last Forever
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit <a href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_7">www.theflyingfrisby.com</a><br/><br/><p>I found myself at a very VIP event last night at the home of a well-known politician. There was a heck of lot of money, age and experience in the room. I felt like I’d gone back in time to the City of the 1980s.</p><p>I got talking to an old boy who, it turned out, had made his money in mining. He had worked at one point for the <a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday">Hunt Brothers</a> (who famously tried to corner the silver market in 1980). He had speculated in Australian’s <a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poseidon_bubble">Poseidon bubble (</a>1969-70), one of the mothers of all speculative mining frenzies. He recalled a stock he had bought at 10c, offloading his final shares at A$120, only to watch it go to A$280. (50 years on, he was still cross with himself for selling too soon, even though it soon went all the way back to 10c).</p><p>“Are we in a secular bull market for mining stocks now?” I asked him. </p><p>He didn’t seem to think we are.</p><p>“What about gold and silver?” </p><p>“Silver’s at $53,” he smiled.</p><p>“$58,” I corrected him.</p><p>“$58!” he said. “Gosh. I must go home and sell the cutlery.”</p><p>There was a photograph in a large silver frame on the sideboard. We discussed the merits of selling that.</p><p>I tell this story for a reason. Bull markets like this one in silver do not come along very often. The old boy know that - and he knew what to do. Because silver bull markets don’t last forever.</p><p>And when they end, they really end. </p><p>You can make informed and educated guesses where the top will be. Getting out at the absolute top can be done but it requires so much good fortune that it is near impossible.</p><p>In the Poseidon bubble, the old boy was selling on the way up, only to see his stock double and more again after he’d unloaded his final tranche. He made money. A lot of money. He didn’t make as much as he could have made - and is still, more than fifty years on, cross with himself.</p><p>Yet he also didn’t lose anything when the bubble popped.</p><p>Is that not more important?</p><p>Yet, bizarre thing the human mind is, we seem to get more cross with ourselves for selling too early than we do for overstaying our welcome and riding the collapse all the way down.</p><p><p><strong><em>If you live in the Third World Country such as the UK, I urge you to </em></strong><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><strong><em>own gold or silver</em></strong></a><strong><em>. The pound is going to be further devalued. The bullion dealer I recommend is </em></strong><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><strong><em>The Pure Gold Company</em></strong></a><strong><em>. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. </em></strong><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><strong><em>More here.</em></strong></a></p></p><p>That amazing cup and handle</p><p>Silver has now broken out of that incredible cup-and-handle formation that has been building since the 1970s. We have spoken about it before. The standard view is that, in a cup-and-handle pattern, the distance from the rim to the bottom of the cup will be your target to the upside. In this case, $3.50 was the low in the early 1990s. The distance from $50 to $3.50 is $46.50, giving us a target of $96 or thereabouts.</p><p>$96.50 then. It could get there. I don’t say it will, but it could.</p><p>You can argue that based on logarithmic charts and percentage falls, the targets should be even higher. I’ve read some as high as $700/oz. It’s possible. $50 in 1980 was a similarly elevated figure.</p>
play-circle icon
4 MIN
When Your Gold Heist Becomes Someone Else's Gold Heist
NOV 30, 2025
When Your Gold Heist Becomes Someone Else's Gold Heist
<p>Good Sunday to you,</p><p>A bit of admin before we come to today’s thought piece.</p><p>First, in case you missed it, here is this week’s commentary, mostly ranting about the budget, the UK’s inept leadership and what actions you, as an investor, should take:</p><p>And this week I also appeared on comedian Geoff Norcott’s podcast, What Most People Think. Here are the links to the show on Apple and Spotify, if of interest.</p><p>But for your thought piece today, we have another great little World War Two gold story <a target="_blank" href="https://amzn.to/43XgqA4">which didn’t make the cut. </a></p><p><strong>The farcical journey of Albanian and Italian gold </strong></p><p>(NB: a tonne of gold is about a medium-sized suitcase full).</p><p>As the Nazis took both Austria and Czechoslovakia with ease, Italian Prime Minister Benito Mussolini grew anxious to flex his own muscles.</p><p>Albania would be his target. Geographically, culturally and historically, it made sense: Albania had been part of the Roman Empire even before northern Italy.</p><p>In April 1939, Italy invaded with a force that contained 400 planes, 300 small tanks, 12 warships, and 22,000 men. But some untrained Albanian locals with the help of a few soldiers managed to drive them back into the sea. Such was 20th century Italian warfare.</p><p>The Italians made it on the second attempt, however, and the capital, Tirana, fell.</p><p>The Albanian King Zog gave an impassioned speech on the radio, urging resistance, but nobody heard it because Albania at the time had fewer than 2,000 radios, and the Italians soon managed to jam the airwaves anyway. Shortly after giving the speech, like the true patriot he was, he fled the country, taking enough gold with him to lead a long life of luxury in exile, eventually ending up in Egypt as a guest of King Farouk, to whom he had to pay $20 million for refuge.</p><p>Albania's founders believed in gold, and their currency, the lek, was based on it. Inflation, as a result, had been nonexistent. The central bank was established in the summer of 1925, and it had worked hard to build up its gold holdings. At home, it had encouraged citizens to swap their jewellery for paper money. That private gold was then added to the nation's gold holdings. Whenever possible, the country increased its gold holdings in London.</p><p>But by the time of the invasion in 1939, most of Albania's 2.3 tonnes was in Italy anyway, where it had been sent for safekeeping. The Italians managed to confiscate quite a bit more in coins and jewellery from citizens.</p><p>We fast forward four years.</p><p>The Italian dilemma: give their gold to the Nazis or the Allies? </p><p>In 1943, Allied forces moved north from Africa into Sicily and then Italy: the invasion of the soft underbelly of Europe had begun.</p><p>Hectic days followed the ousting of Mussolini in July. The Italian Fascists were still nominally in charge. They declared Rome an open city in the hope of avoiding Allied air attacks. But by September 1943, the Nazis had control of the capital and central Italy, and they wanted Italy's gold moved to Berlin, while they still had control of the area.</p><p>They began confiscating the gold of Italian citizens in Rome, especially Italian Jews. The amounts demanded were unrealistic, but Roman Jews reached into their family treasures, their synagogues and institutions to turn in what they had. The Pope, Pius XII, heard about the demands and authorised Catholic churches to lend Jews gold so they could reach the quota.</p><p>But the big prize was in the Italian Central Bank, and several Nazi organisations had their eyes on it: Himmler's SS, Göring's Four Year Plan, von Ribbentrop's Foreign Office, and Funk's Reichsbank. </p><p>Even the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), which was worried about its investments in Italy, started making demands that Italy send it gold. Initially, the governor of the Italian bank, Vincenzo Azzolini, made out that he was offended by the idea, but he soon realised the BIS was a better option than Berlin, whichever Nazi department received it.</p><p>The Italians did not know what to do. On the one hand, they did not want the Nazis to have their gold, but nor did they want the invading Allies to have it either. They thought of sending it to Sardinia, they thought of sending it to the Swiss border. They sent small amounts of gold to branch offices around Italy, but the Bologna gold went missing, as did much of the Milan gold - now supposedly in Turin, but actually hidden in a well. They even sent some to colonial outposts in Benghazi, Rhodes and Addis Ababa.</p><p>The Albanian gold Italy had stolen was still sitting in the Italian bank's vault, so, under pressure from the Nazis, they sent that up to the Reichsbank in Berlin, while they tried to come up with a solution.</p><p>The following day, Niccolò Introna, the Italian bank's deputy general manager, had his plan: to build a false wall in the bank's underground vaults. He would then backdate documents to show the gold had been moved to Potenza, a town in the Italian south that was about to fall into Allied hands, but hide the gold behind the wall.</p><p>Bank governor Azzolini approved the plan, but then ruled that only half the gold should be hidden. The next day the wall was built. The day after that, the official order to ship the gold to Berlin came in from the German ambassador. If the bank did not agree, the Germans would simply seize it. At this point, Azzolini learned that the Germans had seized government records, from which they would know the size and location of the country's gold. Azzolini lost his nerve and had the wall torn down.</p><p>The next day, the German military unit arrived at the bank with orders to move the gold north by air. Azzolini stalled them, saying it would be safer by train. The Germans sent 5 tonnes by air, the rest - 119 tonnes - was sent by train to Milan. From there, it was shipped to Fortezza, Bolzano, close to the border with Germany and under their control, where it stayed for several months. The now-ousted Mussolini even signed his approval that it be sent there.</p><p>The following spring, Azzolini, who above all wanted to stop the gold going to Berlin, struck a deal with Swiss and German representatives that would see 26 tonnes sent to Switzerland, some to the BIS and some to the Swiss National Bank.</p><p>Göring, however, insisted he needed money and suggested giving Italy Reichsmarks for its gold. The deal was signed without the Bank of Italy knowing about it. 50 tonnes left Fortezza, which included 8 tonnes Italy had stolen from Yugoslavia earlier in the war in "restitution" (that’s another story). The delivery arrived in Berlin a tonne light. As almost always by this point in the war, someone had their hands in the till.</p><p>The process of shipping the next batch of Italian gold - some 22 tonnes - went on for months, as some (but not all) Italian officials tried to stall. But eventually, that too was dispatched. That too arrived in Berlin a tonne light.</p><p>When American forces eventually liberated Fortezza, they found 25 tonnes. It was handed over to the Bank of Italy.</p><p>What a mess.</p><p>Stories like this fill the pages of <a target="_blank" href="https://amzn.to/489AX6X"><em>The Secret History of Gold</em></a><em> (although this one didn’t actually make the cut).</em></p><p><em>The Secret History of Gold is available at </em><a target="_blank" href="https://amzn.to/489AX6X"><em>Amazon</em></a><em>, </em><a target="_blank" href="https://www.waterstones.com/book/the-secret-history-of-gold/dominic-frisby//9780241728345"><em>Waterstones</em></a><em> and all good bookshops. I hear the </em><a target="_blank" href="https://amzn.to/4mgC5K5"><em>audiobook, read by me, is excellent. </em></a></p><p>And it would make a wonderful Christmas present!</p><p></p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_2">www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe</a>
play-circle icon
8 MIN