The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit <a href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_7">www.theflyingfrisby.com</a><br/><br/><p>Never mind the dodgy mortgages, oil spiking to $150/barrel in July, 2008, just before the panic set in, was as big a cause of the Global Financial Crisis.</p><p>The price rise was like a sudden, unexpected liquidity drain on the economy. The US economy is built on oil. Costs suddenly rose across every supply chain. Disposable income was sucked out of households. Corporate margins got squeezed and inflation expectations rose effectively tightening financial conditions, just as the system needed liquidity. Funding costs then rose and collateral quality deteriorated. In a system already stretched with cheap credit and thin margins, highly leveraged institutions and ordinary borrowers were simultaneously pushed over the edge. The structure was fragile and it only worked in a low energy, low rate world. Subprime may have been the trigger, but the energy shock had already destabilised the foundations.</p><p>The oil price tightened financial conditions before central banks did</p><p>This is not a one-off</p><p>As <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bytetree.com/research/2026/03/what-happened-in-1974/?fpr=df24">Charlie Morris points out in his piece What Happened in 1974</a>, there have been three major oil shocks - in 1973/4, 1980 and 2008.</p><p>In 1973 the US was dependent on Arab nations for most of its oil, and shortly after the Egypt-Syria alliance suddenly declared war on Israel, oil-producing Arab nations imposed an embargo on any nation that supported Israel. “You can support Israel or have cheap oil, but you can’t have both,” the Saudi Arabian king had said on US TV.</p><p>The oil price went from $3.50 to $10. It would eventually peak at $39.50 in 1980.</p><p>I was only a little boy in the 1970s but we lived in South Kensington and I remember how many Arabs suddenly moved to the area, many of them with a great deal of money. My step-father ran a business in Belgravia selling modern Italian furniture and his clientele changed almost overnight. Hundreds of billions of dollars, previously in Western bank accounts, now made their way to the Gulf in a transfer of wealth like no other. Next came the Rolls Royces, the racehorses, the Harrods shopping sprees (indeed Harrods itself), the mansions, the public school educations, the City petro-dollar recycling trade and yes the over-priced, glitzy, Valentino furniture. London would never be the same.</p><p>And what impact did those years have on bond and equity markets more generally? The 1970s were horrible, unless you were long commodities. The low reached in 1982 was so extreme that it marked one of the greatest long-term buying opportunities ever known, perhaps the greatest. While 2008 had its own consequences, not least the end of the City as a leading player in the global financial system (thanks to the regulation which followed), followed by the general decline of London.</p><p>Each of these episodes follows a similar pattern: an energy shock tightens conditions, exposes leverage and forces a reset.</p><p>It might not feel that way today with oil at $100, but we are still a long way from the extremes of 1974, 1980 or 2008. A lot of commentary is saying the investment world is too complacent and has not factored in what is coming.</p><p>What is 2008’s $150 oil in today’s money?</p><p>I’m not going to give you the CPI numbers because I consider CPI a bogus measure. Using money supply instead (M2), the equivalents look like this</p><p>* 1974: $10 oil ≈ $120-150</p><p>* 1980: $40 oil ≈ $360-440</p><p>* 2008: $150 oil ≈ $375-450</p><p>In the context of those extremes $100 oil does not look unreasonable</p><p>The sub-$60 prices with which we began this year now look extraordinarily cheap. I don’t think we are going back to them any time soon.</p><p>I’m also not saying we are going to those comparable numbers above. I merely show them for context.</p><p>In terms of where we are going, I think <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bytetree.com/research/2026/03/what-happened-in-1974/?fpr=df24">Charlie has it right when he says</a>, “We should assume that $100 oil implies a slowdown, $150 a recession, and $200 a depression”.</p><p>$200 is not impossible if this was carries on.</p><p>What to do?</p><p>Let’s take a quick look at how to position ourselves, and at what’s in store for gold, silver, miners and the equities markets.</p><p>It was the right call to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/oil-and-gas-the-next-big-rotation?r=1o6vt&#38;utm_campaign=post&#38;utm_medium=web">move into energy at the beginning of the year</a>, I’m pleased to say. With such quick profits the temptation is to sell. I’m maintaining my positions.</p><p>The US, especially after the Venezuala episode, is self-sufficient in hydrocarbons. Europe is not. Whose oil and gas will it be buying now that Gulf supplies are in doubt, and Russian supply is off-limits?</p><p>Meanwhile, high energy prices make shale extraction profitable again.</p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/ai-runs-on-fossil-fuel?r=1o6vt&#38;utm_campaign=post&#38;utm_medium=web">North American oil and gas comes out of this strong.</a></p>

<p>Bull markets don’t last forever. When you’re in the throes of one, it can feel like they do. But they don’t, and at a certain point you have to sell.</p><p>Gold bull markets can feel even more eternal. Not just because the metal itself is eternal, but because the story comes along that we are going back to a gold standard, or that the Great Purge, which many economists of the Austrian school say is inevitable after fifty years of fiat decadence, is finally upon us.</p><p>I get that argument. But it is too neat, too deterministic. Real life is much more mucky.</p><p>So today I want to consider a very important question, and I want to try and answer it honestly:</p><p>Where are we in this bull market?</p><p>Has gold already peaked? It’s possible. The spike to $5,600/oz at the end of January had many of the hallmarks of a blow-off top.</p><p>Or perhaps $5,600 was just a mid-cycle peak, such as we saw in 2006 or 1975-76 during previous bull markets.</p><p>Or is this bull market still in its infancy?</p><p>I’m going to study this bull market through every lens I can think of: price, time, valuation, participation, market structure, macro context and sentiment.</p><p>My bias going in is that we are mid-cycle, as I argued in my <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/markets-in-a-time-of-war?r=1o6vt&#38;utm_campaign=post&#38;utm_medium=web"><strong>Great Forecast </strong></a>last week. Let’s see where I end up. </p><p><strong>1. Duration</strong></p><p>There have been two great gold bull markets since the end of the gold standard: 1971-1980 and 2001-2011. Both lasted nine to ten years.</p><p>When did this one begin?</p><p>It depends how you define it.</p><p>You could take the bear-market low of $1,045 in late 2015. You could take the $1,160 retest in 2018. You could take 2019, when gold broke out of its multi-year base.</p><p>Technical analysis is often in the eye of the beholder. Just like bull markets.</p><p>You could even argue late 2022, when the current acceleration began.</p><p>If you start in 2015, this bull market has already lasted ten years. That would put it right in line with the duration of previous cycles, and you could argue it is close to exhaustion.</p><p>If you start in 2018 or 2019, there may be several years left to run.</p><p>I favour 2018. Just as gold hit $250 in 1999, rallied, and then returned to roughly the same level in 2001 before the real bull market began, the 2018 low feels like the equivalent retest. Of course this is debatable.</p><p>And there is always the possibility that this bull market lasts longer than previous ones.</p><p>Verdict: mid- to late-cycle.</p><p><strong>2. Relative valuation vs other assets</strong></p><p>Oil</p><p>With gold at $5,200 and WTI crude around $87, it takes roughly 60 barrels of oil to buy one ounce of gold.</p><p>Historically this ratio ranges between 6 and 30.</p><p>The only time oil has been this cheap relative to gold was in the 2020 pandemic collapse, when oil went negative.</p><p>My view: it’s not so much that gold is expensive as that oil is cheap. Plus commodities inevitably get cheaper as we get better at producing them. (As long as you don’t measure the price in fiat).</p><p>Gold vs the S&P 500</p><p>With the S&P around <strong>6,765</strong>, it takes about <strong>1.3 ounces of gold</strong> to buy one unit of the index.</p><p>This ratio has been as high as 5 - at the peak of Dotcom in 2000, and the nadir of gold - and as low as 0.2 (during the depths of the 1930s and at the 1980 gold peak).</p><p>Gold is therefore on the expensive side relative to equities, but not at historic extremes.</p><p>This ratio could fall further if equities fall or gold rises.</p><p>Gold vs US housing</p><p>The US housing market varies enormously by region - Beverely Hills is not Detroit, Miami Beach is not McDowell County - so national averages should be treated cautiously. But they still give a rough guide.</p><p>We are now below the 2011 level and approaching 1980 territory in terms of how many ounces of gold buy a typical home.</p><p>Pretty extreme.</p><p>Overall verdict: late-cycle. Warning signal</p><p><strong>3. Institutional ownership</strong></p><p>Gold is still under-owned in institutional portfolios.</p><p>Even after the recent rally, gold represents only a tiny fraction of global portfolio allocation compared with equities and bonds.</p><p>Gold mining equities are even more neglected.</p><p>Verdict: mid-cycle</p><p><strong>4. Central banks</strong></p><p>Central bank buying slowed to 863 tonnes in 2025, down from record levels in 2024, but still well above the 2010-2021 average.</p><p>However, the World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased only 5 tonnes in January, below the monthly average of 27 tonnes. I would not read too much into that. Much buying is reported with delays, and China in particular reveals little about its activity. </p><p>The usual assumption is that central bank buying is an early or mid-cycle phenomenon. I am not entirely convinced. If the real driver of this bull market is de-dollarisation and reserve diversification amidst a wider geopolitical shift, then official buying could persist for years.</p><p>Gold currently represents just under 30% of central bank reserves. The US dollar still accounts for roughly 56%.</p><p>I don’t think this bull market ends until gold sits north of 50% having overtaken the dollar itself.</p><p>Question: is the war in Iran going to arrest of accelerate de-dollarisation? You know the answer. </p><p>Verdict: mid-cycle</p><p>5. Retail participation</p><p>Retail demand is growing. 2025 saw record bar and coin demand. ETF inflows are rising, but they are not exploding. Mining companies are finally attracting interest again.</p><p>Silver went briefly manic last month, which is not a healthy sign, but the episode is already unwinding.</p><p>Verdict: mid-cycle</p><p>By the way, due to its senior currency status, the US dollar is going to preserve its purchasing power better than the pound, which is a car crash waiting to happen. I keep getting asked, “is it too late to buy gold?”. If you are in the UK, . <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/the-great-decline-where-is-this-all">We are turning into South Africa</a> and the currency will go the same way. The 40% loss of purchasing power that the pound has seen since 2020 is not going to reverse. If anything it accelerates. Thus …</p><p><p><em>If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to </em><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><em>own gold or silver</em></a><em>. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I recommend is </em><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><em>The Pure Gold Company</em></a><em>. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. </em><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><em>More here.</em></a></p></p><p>6. Leverage</p><p>Leverage is difficult to measure precisely.</p><p>You can look at: futures positioning on Comex, options activity, speculative flows into junior miners, retail spread betting and more. The short answer is this: gold is a crowded trade, but it is not a mania.</p><p>If it were a mania, the geopolitical shock in Iran last week would have triggered violent liquidations. Instead gold held up remarkably well.</p><p>Verdict: mid-cycle</p><p><strong>7. Mining equities</strong></p><p>Mining stocks had an excellent <strong>2025</strong>. Word is that PDAC last week (the world’s largest mining conference), was the like of which had not been felt since 2011 and the last top. That is a warning sign.</p><p>This chart shows the ratio of the XAU (large mining companies) to gold since 1988. </p><p>On a relative basis the miners are still phenomenally under-owned, and we now have a text-book base, formed over 9-years, in place. If this ratio goes back to levels of the early 0 0s , miners will multiply many times over.</p><p>But these declines began with the emergence of the ETFs and the many alternative ways to own gold without taking on individual company risk. The ratio does not have to go back 00s levels.</p><p>Maybe. But that base is a thing of beauty.</p><p>Typically the end of a gold bull market would coincide with massive rallies in junior miners, an exploration IPO boom and a merger-and-acquisition frenzy.</p><p>We are seeing healthy signs of activity, but nothing like that yet.</p><p>Verdict: mid-cycle</p><p><p>I’m delighted to report that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Secret-History-Gold-Money-Politics/dp/0241728347?crid=238JEQ45WFZKZ&#38;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.x0kA3fSPOH14mT2Dj1cSFZdHpGTGiG5YbdOyhFbfEupZJaU-wn0oH3VdYicj2AJAYNhEoo0noLhS0WBOLv49NOY7k1KhKdu_YOx3KuGp7KA2FGiBXyxZ4O-KmThaZe1Kw7v3ugETZpJMUrzEDCqGyUHrew65w3_Qhv-eKbQM0PWHdQNOpApkeBn0T-5hmap-iRZcAbqK43-tdv-TqntBSb0xgwEFWy1WJDKGQwy8_iU.wP9ASIcbdlasLgzmyRO5dMP5CvYLf8CmKp_LhqBmEJ4&#38;dib_tag=se&#38;keywords=secret+history+of+gold&#38;qid=1753710043&#38;sprefix=secret+history+of+gold%2Caps%2C86&#38;sr=8-1&#38;linkCode=ll1&#38;tag=dominicfrisby-21&#38;linkId=96ec6850a3d91eaddbbadcf8ab6ff533&#38;language=en_GB&#38;ref_=as_li_ss_tl"><strong>The Secret History of Gold - Myth, Money, Politics and Power</strong></a><strong>,</strong> published by Penguin Life, comes out in the US next month. (The US version is published by Pegasus). Order yours now - via <a target="_blank" href="https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/the-secret-history-of-gold-dominic-frisby/1148560721"><strong>Barnes and Noble</strong></a> or <a target="_blank" href="https://www.amazon.com/Secret-History-Gold-Money-Politics/dp/B0GMRT8M41/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1MGLNDKLM593A&#38;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.4fKhOcP1c6SKw8yWXjSEJ0m44v4zD3UihB6GwLyVgEIHsL4IjBqKflk35nO8tm4gEZ781WPh3R-bWXJGwIClYm1BgmGUEvC1ViGHbbP_xv14oIfPPpApwpZNrbGWJ3ce8wwLLWhtnv_KrOHP36qJ1BBbjvWu7aJ4OryOUO-5_kqDQcC1vTUcRbDCXqXYl1m7nX67LpcfVsW7A5N3XuUtYxmizSNg2iZcywnuTwDtrJI.dgJ0pIy8SIefczXmBg8WGK7z_kU_WhZN8cF_3z-p9M4&#38;dib_tag=se&#38;keywords=secret+history+gold&#38;qid=1773233718&#38;sprefix=secret+history+gold%2Caps%2C175&#38;sr=8-1"><strong>Amazon</strong></a></p></p><p>8. The narrative - gold to $150,000?</p><p>Gold got some coverage in publications like The Economist and the Financial Times last month, but the story is far from mainstream.</p><p>Ask most people about de-dollarisation, Triffin’s dilemma or central bank reserve diversification and you will get blank looks.</p><p>However, some familiar late-cycle narratives are beginning to appear.</p><p>One is that silver is being remonetised.</p><p>It isn’t.</p><p>Silver may well be an important strategic metal, but its monetary role was as medium of exchange. That role is not coming back because we no longer use physical money. That function has been digitised.</p><p>Gold, by contrast, retains its role as as store of value - a function that silver never had to anything like the same extent. Silver may have use as a speculative asset. It may well rise in price. It may even overshoot spectacularly. But it is not being remonetised. That will not happen, unless Eastenders turns into Mad Max.</p><p>Another narrative that sometimes appears near major peaks is the US national debt relative to gold reserves. In 1980, headlines declared the US was “solvent again” because it could have used its gold to fully settled its debt.</p><p>Today US debt is roughly $39 trillion. To settle that debt using America’s 262 million ounces of gold, the gold price would need to be roughly $150,000 per ounce.</p><p>When arguments like that start circulating, it means the narrative can’t go much further and the cycle is close to exhaustion.</p><p>We are not there yet.</p><p>Verdict: mid-cycle</p><p>9. Real yields</p><p>Last but not least: real interest rates.</p><p>This would be the 10-year Treasury yield minus inflation, or the 10-year TIPS yield.</p><p>Gold bull markets tend to end when real yields rise sharply.</p><p>In 1980, Paul Volcker pushed interest rates toward 20% and real yields surged. Gold then entered a twenty-year bear market. At the 2011 peak, real yields rose from deeply negative to positive and gold topped within months. From 2020–2022 real yields went negative again and gold surged, until they rose in 2022 and gold stalled.</p><p>Today nominal yields are relatively high, but inflation remains elevated, the Fed is under pressure to ease (as are most central banks) and fiscal deficits are enormous.</p><p>Real yields therefore sit around zero or slightly positive, depending on how they are measured. That is not restrictive enough to kill the gold bull market.</p><p>The danger signal would be inflation falling sharply while nominal yields stay high, pushing real yields well above +2%. We are some distance from that.</p><p>Verdict: mid-cycle</p><p><p>If you are interested in following the real yield argument, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bytetree.com/atlas-pulse/?fpr=df24"><strong>Charlie Morris is the man.</strong></a> He gets it better than anyone, and I heartily recommend you follow his work via his <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bytetree.com/atlas-pulse/?fpr=df24"><strong><em>Atlas Pulse</em></strong></a><strong><em>.</em></strong><em> </em><a target="_blank" href="https://www.bytetree.com/atlas-pulse/?fpr=df24"><em>Get your copy here </em></a><em>- it’s free.</em></p></p><p>Conclusion</p><p>If gold continues rising it will pull silver and mining equities higher with it.</p><p>The spike in silver last month to around $125 looked very much like a mid-cycle blow-off, and a period of consolidation is now both likely and healthy. </p><p>Looking across all the indicators, most point toward a mid-cycle environment rather than a late-cycle one.</p><p><p>What superb content. You really should upgrade.</p></p><p>Duration and relative valuation raise some concerns, but these are just one or two of nine indicators. Everything else suggests the bull market has not yet reached its final, most speculative phase.</p><p>In other words: this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.</p><p>$8 to $10,000 by the end of the decade is a very real possibility.</p><p>Thanks very much for being a subscriber to Flying Frisby.</p><p>Until next time,</p><p>Dominic</p><p>PS I have discussed gold largely in dollar terms, because the market is quoted in dollars. But if you are in the UK the case for owning gold has less to do with the dollar and far more to do with the pound. Sterling has already lost roughly 40% of its purchasing power since 2020, and that trend is not going to reverse. If anything it will accelerate. It’s not just the ineptitude of successive governments, but unelected permablob (in this case the Treasury, the OBR, the Bank of England, the FCA et al) that actually runs the show. The system- if you can call it that - is the problem and it’s not going to change. The incentives are to spend more, borrow more and debase the currency slowly over time. You cannot fix that system. But you can protect yourself from it. And that means <a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby">owning some gold.</a></p><p><strong>Disclaimer</strong></p><p><em>I am not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) or any other regulatory body as a financial advisor. Therefore, any information provided in this newsletter does not constitute regulated financial advice. It is solely an expression of opinion. Small-cap stocks are inherently risky. Please conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor, if you have any doubts. Remember, markets can both rise and fall, especially in the case of small and mid-cap stocks. I am not aware of your individual financial circumstances, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.</em></p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_2">www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe</a>

<p>Good Sunday to you,</p><p>You’ve no doubt seen the videos of Iran’s largest oil facilities burning.</p><p>How much destruction does war cause? To the environment, to wealth, to people’s lives. </p><p>And governments lecture us about the environment.</p><p>15% of China’s oil comes from Iran. Not any more. I bet they’re delighted.</p><p>No surprise, oil futures have spiked again. WTIC has gone to $94 in weekend markets, Brent to $97.</p><p>I’m glad <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/oil-and-gas-the-next-big-rotation?r=1o6vt&#38;utm_campaign=post&#38;utm_medium=web">we own oil </a>and I’m glad <a target="_blank" href="https://open.substack.com/pub/frisby/p/your-definitive-guide-to-buying-and?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&#38;utm_medium=web">we own gold.</a> </p><p>Iran meanwhile has started targeting desalination plants across the Middle East - how most neighbouring Arab nations get their water - and the probability of an early end to this conflict, despite Donald Trump already claiming the win, seems to be receding by the day.</p><p>According to Polymarket, the probability of a US-Iran ceasefire by March 31 is just 24%. Even by the end of April it is just 48%. The odds are 67% that the Iranian regime will still be in power by June 30.</p><p>Meanwhile, in the UK, the strategic stupidity of being dependent on overseas sources for oil, gas and coal when we have perfectly abundant supplies of our own is about to hit home in the form of yet higher energy costs. The government will no doubt blame everyone and everything but itself.</p><p>UK borrowing costs are now rising faster and higher than any other European nation, which spells trouble for the housing market, business and the economy, and government finances. Ten year gilt yields are now above 4.5% and it costs more for the UK government to borrow than it does any other G7 nation, and indeed any PIIGS nation, which became such laughing stocks after the GFC.</p><p>Happy days.</p><p><p><em>If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to </em><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><em>own gold or silver</em></a><em>. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I recommend is </em><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><em>The Pure Gold Company</em></a><em>. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. </em><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><em>More here.</em></a></p></p><p>Here’s a five-year chart of <a target="_blank" href="https://open.substack.com/pub/frisby/p/your-definitive-guide-to-buying-and?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&#38;utm_medium=web">gold </a>priced in pounds, in case you were wondering what a trend looks like. There’s only one way this is going.</p><p>You can look at a 10- or 20-year chart. It’s the same story.</p><p>Here also for your reference is a long-term chart (since 1983) of the gold-oil ratio. </p><p>You can see how cheap, historically, oil is.</p><p>And that’s even after the rally of the last fortnight.</p><p>What if it goes back to the top of that range?</p><p>I’m glad <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/oil-and-gas-the-next-big-rotation?r=1o6vt&#38;utm_campaign=post&#38;utm_medium=web">we bought oil when we did</a>, before this all kicked off. As always when a market moves in your direction, I now wish we’d bought more.</p><p>Here is this week’s commentary, in case you missed it. Lots of forecasts for the year ahead. Take a look if you haven’t already seen it.</p><p>Thank you for being a subscriber to the Flying Frisby.</p><p>Until next time,</p><p>Dominic</p><p></p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_2">www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe</a>

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit <a href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_7">www.theflyingfrisby.com</a><br/><br/><p>War creates uncertainty. Lots of it. And how we all hate uncertainty. </p><p>Markets don’t like it either.</p><p>What’s going to happen? How long does it go on for? Where do things go from here?</p><p>Iran will be an in-and-out job like Maduro. Actually the regime is more entrenched than that. It’s only going to last four weeks. America’s preparing for a 100-day war. Britain is getting dragged into World War Three. It’s Cuba next. Aaaagh. Help.</p><p>At times like this it pays to zoom out and take stock of the bigger picture.</p><p>So today I’m going to do that.</p><p>With a <strong>BIG Forecast.</strong></p><p>I’ve studied the charts, applied some simple technical analysis, all with a striaghtforward question in mind: where is all this going?</p><p>We are going to look at:</p><p>* Gold</p><p>* Silver</p><p>* Bitcoin</p><p>* Crude oil</p><p>* Copper</p><p>* The S&P 500</p><p>* The pound</p><p>* The US dollar</p><p>And I am going to give you my forecast.</p><p>Before we begin, though, take a moment.</p><p>Where do you think these markets will be by the end of the year?</p><p>* Will gold be higher or lower? What about silver?</p><p>* Will Bitcoin break $150,000 or fall back below $60,000?</p><p>* Will oil go to $100 a barrel?</p><p>* What about the stock market?</p><p>* And the pound?</p><p>Make a note of your answers.</p><p>Now let’s see how they compare with mine.</p><p>Gold</p><p><strong>$4,400 low / $5,600 high by 31 Dec 2026</strong></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://open.substack.com/pub/frisby/p/your-definitive-guide-to-buying-and?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&#38;utm_medium=web">Gold</a> bull markets don’t last forever, but they do tend to last a decade, if the last 60 years are anything to go by, and we are midway through this one. Chinese accumulation is not over, de-dollarisation is not over, central bank re-allocation is not over. Institutions, governments and private investors are still underweight. About the only group that isn’t underweight is readers of the Flying Frisby.</p><p>We are currently experiencing a mid-cycle consolidation, much as we experienced in 2006: gold went vertical from $540 to $720 then fell back and traded sideways, with an upwards bias for the next 18 months. Five years later it was $1,920.</p><p>My forecast: gold range trades. $5,150 is the current price. Gold will flirt with its old highs at $5,600. It will test $4,500 as well. <a target="_blank" href="https://open.substack.com/pub/frisby/p/your-definitive-guide-to-buying-and?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&#38;utm_medium=web">Buy the dips</a>. It’s going higher. Just not quite yet.</p><p><p><em>If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to </em><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><em>own gold or silver</em></a><em>. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I recommend is </em><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><em>The Pure Gold Company</em></a><em>. </em><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><em>More here.</em></a></p></p><p>For the mining companies to work, gold only needs to stay around these levels. The GDXJ-gold ratio - small mining companies v gold - is in an uptrend, though it’s butted up against resistance and the 2020 highs. It can go a lot higher, though maybe it needs a breather.</p><p>Silver</p><p>It’s the one everyone wants to know about.</p><p>Silver is basically a leveraged bet on gold plus industrial cyclicality. It can underperform brutally and it can overshoot like crazy too.</p>

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit <a href="https://www.theflyingfrisby.com?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_7">www.theflyingfrisby.com</a><br/><br/><p>Yesterday, the US and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran, targeting key military and other strategic facilities. The Ayatollah Khamenei - supreme leader of Iran for 36 years - has already been confirmed dead, killed in the strikes along with several other senior officials. </p><p>In retaliation, Iran has struck US military bases, Israel, and targets across the Middle East. Supposedly safe Dubai has been hit. </p><p>We pray for every innocent caught up in this, wherever they are.</p><p>We have a major conflict in the Middle East on our hands. Again.</p><p><p>ICYMI, here is the week’s commentary. I’m glad we were positioned for this oil rally.</p></p><p>The early signs</p><p>This operation was reportedly planned for months and rumours about its imminence have been circulating for as long. </p><p>President Trump has promised to obliterate Iran’s nuclear programme and end the regime. </p><p>Many Iranians have been pictured celebrating in the streets. This regime was massacring protesters only last month. Iranians may not mourn its end.</p><p>The succession question seems open. One hopes Israel and the US have plans in this regard, but, with no vice-supreme-leader position, there is bound to be something of a power vacuum, even if a three-person council has temporarily assumed power. </p><p>The US-Israeli intention may be for this conflict to be swift and decisive, but the pattern of US warfare, as long as I can remember, is that it scores big, decisive victories early - so convincing that you think it will be a walkover - and then the enemy regroups, and the conflict drags on far longer than anyone hoped. </p><p>The nature of the military industrial complex, and how it is funded, means the incentive is rarely to wrap things up quickly, I am sorry to say, and that might have rather a lot to do with this repeating pattern.</p><p>We don’t yet know how this one ends, but the US already has a typically big early score with Ayatollah Khamenei now dead. I really would not be surprised to see the rest of the pattern repeat.</p><p><p><em>If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to </em><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><em>own gold or silver</em></a><em>. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I recommend is </em><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><em>The Pure Gold Company</em></a><em>. </em><a target="_blank" href="https://thepuregoldcompany.co.uk/dominic-frisby/?utm_source=affiliate&#38;utm_medium=referral&#38;utm_campaign=dominic-frisby"><em>More here.</em></a></p></p><p>What happened last time</p><p>You’re no doubt wondering what the effect of this will be on prices and the answer is: perhaps not what you expect. </p>