Investors' Insights and Market Updates

MAR 23, 2026

Navigating Uncertainty with Clarity In today’s rapidly shifting global environment, investors are faced with an overwhelming amount of information. From central bank policy decisions to geopolitical tensions, the volume and complexity of news can make it difficult to determine what truly matters for long-term financial planning. The focus, however, should remain on identifying the key variables that directly impact portfolios and market behavior. As global events unfold, particularly unexpected geopolitical conflicts, the investment landscape becomes even more complex. At the start of the year, few anticipated that escalating international tensions would coincide with critical monetary policy decisions. Energy prices, inflation expectations, and broader economic sentiment are all influenced by global conflict, and in turn, these elements shape how policymakers respond. For investors, staying informed and maintaining perspective is critical to navigating these uncertain conditions with confidence. Policy, Markets, and the Path Forward Recent market movements highlight the significant influence of policy decisions, particularly those made by the Federal Reserve. In its latest meeting, the Fed opted to hold interest rates steady, a widely anticipated move. However, the broader implications of that decision, along with ongoing leadership considerations, have added another layer of complexity to market expectations. Despite heightened attention on geopolitical tensions, the Fed’s policy stance has arguably had a more immediate impact on financial markets. Investors are increasingly recognizing that while global conflicts, especially in energy-sensitive regions, pose risks, the policy response to those conflicts may ultimately be more consequential. One of the primary concerns tied to geopolitical instability is the potential for rising oil and gas prices to reignite inflation. While this risk exists, there is a compelling argument that economic growth should be a more pressing concern. Historically, inflation trends have been closely tied to changes in the money supply, often with a lag of over a year. Current data suggests that money supply growth remains below trend, indicating that inflationary pressures may be more contained than feared. At the same time, prolonged geopolitical conflict can weigh on economic growth, productivity, and business confidence. This creates a delicate balancing act for policymakers. While short-term energy price spikes may influence sentiment, they may not necessarily translate into sustained inflation. Instead, the risk of slowing growth could become the more significant challenge. Market expectations currently reflect a cautious outlook, with little anticipation of near-term rate cuts and, in some cases, the possibility of rate hikes. However, there is a growing view that the Fed may need to reconsider this stance. Modest rate cuts later in the year could provide support for economic growth without significantly exacerbating inflation risks. From a corporate perspective, earnings remain a key area of focus. While energy companies may benefit from higher prices, it is important to monitor whether growth remains broad-based across sectors. Sustained earnings growth will be critical in maintaining market stability and investor confidence. Ultimately, the path forward remains uncertain. The interplay between geopolitical developments, energy markets, inflation, and monetary policy creates a complex environment for decision-making. While precise predictions are difficult, staying informed and adaptable will be essential. Even incremental shifts in policy expectations, such as signaling potential rate cuts, could have meaningful implications for markets in the months ahead. <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/our-team/greg-powell/">Greg Powell, CIMA®</a> President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell <a href="mailto:[email protected]">here</a> <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/our-team/bobby-norman-cfp/">Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®</a> Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman <a href="mailto:[email protected]">here</a> <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/team-new/trey-booth-cfa-aif/">Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®</a> Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth <a href="mailto:[email protected]">here</a> <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/our-team/ty-miller/">Ty Miller</a><a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/our-team/bobby-norman-cfp/">, AIF®</a> Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller <a href="mailto:[email protected]">here</a>   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/fed-decisions-escalation-in-war/">Fed Decisions, Escalation in War</a> first appeared on <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com">Fi Plan Partners</a>.

4 MIN

MAR 19, 2026

Correlation and Causation

On this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Trey Booth explains the critical difference between correlation and causation in investing. While many market trends appear connected, like certain stocks rising alongside the broader market, he highlights why moving in the same direction doesn’t necessarily mean one causes the other. By looking beyond surface-level data and digging into the underlying drivers of market behavior, investors can better understand the real forces influencing their decisions. Watch to learn more. <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/team-new/trey-booth-cfa-aif/">Trey Booth</a>, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth <a href="mailto:[email protected]">here</a> Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. A Roth IRA offers tax deferral on any earnings in the account. Qualified withdrawals of earnings from the account are tax-free. Withdrawals of earnings prior to age 59 ½ or prior to the account being opened for 5 years, whichever is later, may result in a 10% IRS penalty tax. Limitations and restrictions may apply. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/correlation-and-causation/">Correlation and Causation</a> first appeared on <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com">Fi Plan Partners</a>.

2 MIN

MAR 16, 2026

Oil Tells the Story

Higher Oil Prices are Cutting into Consumer Tailwinds Coming into the year, one of the major economic themes was the expected strength of the U.S. consumer. A key reason for that optimism was the wave of additional tax refunds created by provisions from last year’s tax legislation, including changes such as no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and adjustments to the SALT deduction. These measures were expected to deliver a meaningful boost to household cash flow. So far, that boost has materialized. Tax refunds are running about $24.7 billion higher compared to this time last year, providing a significant inflow of funds to American households. However, rising oil prices are beginning to offset part of that benefit. Gasoline costs have increased by roughly 57 cents per gallon, and because the United States consumes about 380 million gallons of gasoline per day, that price increase translates to approximately $218 million in additional daily spending on fuel. Over time, that adds up quickly. Estimates suggest that around $5–6.5 billion of consumer purchasing power has already been absorbed by higher gasoline costs. While that has not eliminated the entire tax refund boost, it has clearly reduced the amount of money consumers have available for discretionary spending. There are early signs of this shift in behavior. The U.S. savings rate has moved higher, indicating that consumers may be holding onto more of their refund rather than spending it broadly across the economy. Instead, a larger portion of that money is being redirected toward energy costs. This dynamic isn’t inherently negative, but if energy prices remain elevated for an extended period, it could limit the broader economic stimulus that tax refunds were expected to provide. Oil Markets Echo Past Geopolitical Shocks Consumer spending remains one of the most important drivers of economic growth and market performance, which makes rising oil prices especially significant. To better understand the current environment, it’s helpful to look at how oil prices behaved during previous geopolitical shocks, particularly the surge that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine. At that time, oil prices rose sharply as the conflict escalated. Brent Crude climbed from around $65 per barrel in early December 2021 to roughly $139 per barrel as the war unfolded in early 2022. Recent events show a similar pattern. Tensions surrounding the conflict involving Iran pushed oil prices from about $60 per barrel to nearly $120, reaching a peak around early March before retreating as tanker traffic resumed through the Strait of Hormuz. This waterway is one of the most critical chokepoints in global energy supply, with a significant share of the world’s oil passing through it. Because of that, any disruption to traffic there introduces considerable supply risk. The good news is that oil prices have recently pulled back, suggesting that markets may be pricing in a better-than-feared outcome. If the pattern continues to resemble the 2022 experience, there’s a possibility that peak prices for this geopolitical event may already be behind us. Still, uncertainty remains high. Oil volatility continues to reflect ongoing concerns about the duration and intensity of the conflict and its potential impact on global supply. What Higher Oil Means for the Federal Reserve While market attention has largely been focused on geopolitical developments and energy prices, another important factor is quietly approaching: the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady for now. However, expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted dramatically in recent months. At the start of the year, markets were pricing in roughly three rate cuts for 2026. That expectation has now dropped to fewer than one cut for the year, a significant change in outlook. A major reason for this shift is renewed concern about inflation, particularly due to higher energy prices. Oil price spikes often create short-term inflation pressure, but historically they tend to be one-off events rather than drivers of sustained inflation. In many cases, high oil prices eventually slow economic activity, which helps ease inflation pressures over time. Some early signs of that slowdown are beginning to appear. Recent revisions show that U.S. real GDP growth slowed from 1.4% in the fourth quarter to 0.7%, indicating a modest deceleration in economic momentum. Ironically, if oil prices eventually decline, as they often do after geopolitical shocks, the resulting drop in inflation pressure could reopen the door for additional rate cuts from the Fed. For now, savers may benefit from higher interest rates lasting longer than expected. But if oil prices retreat and economic growth slows further, the outlook could shift toward two to three rate cuts, which would be more favorable for borrowers. <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/our-team/greg-powell/">Greg Powell, CIMA®</a> President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell <a href="mailto:[email protected]">here</a> <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/our-team/bobby-norman-cfp/">Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®</a> Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman <a href="mailto:[email protected]">here</a> <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/team-new/trey-booth-cfa-aif/">Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®</a> Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth <a href="mailto:[email protected]">here</a> <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/our-team/ty-miller/">Ty Miller</a><a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/our-team/bobby-norman-cfp/">, AIF®</a> Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller <a href="mailto:[email protected]">here</a>   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/oil-tells-the-story/">Oil Tells the Story</a> first appeared on <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com">Fi Plan Partners</a>.

4 MIN

MAR 12, 2026

Crypto ETFs vs Owning Actual Crypto

On this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Ty Miller explores the growing conversation around cryptocurrency investing and the key differences between owning crypto directly and investing through a crypto ETF. He explains how each option works, from the convenience and regulation of ETFs traded through brokerage accounts to the control and responsibility that comes with holding digital assets in your own wallet. The episode also dives into decentralized apps (dApps) and highlights key differences in ownership, regulation, taxation, and potential use cases that investors should understand before deciding which approach fits their strategy. Watch to learn more. <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/our-team/ty-miller/">Ty Miller</a> Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller <a href="mailto:[email protected]">here</a> Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. A Roth IRA offers tax deferral on any earnings in the account. Qualified withdrawals of earnings from the account are tax-free. Withdrawals of earnings prior to age 59 ½ or prior to the account being opened for 5 years, whichever is later, may result in a 10% IRS penalty tax. Limitations and restrictions may apply. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/crypto-etfs-vs-owning-actual-crypto/">Crypto ETFs vs Owning Actual Crypto</a> first appeared on <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com">Fi Plan Partners</a>.

6 MIN

MAR 9, 2026

What’s Changed?

Oil Spikes and What They Historically Mean for Markets One of the most immediate market reactions to geopolitical tension in the Middle East is the surge in oil prices. Since the current conflict began on February 28, crude oil has risen sharply, climbing roughly 18% within days and continuing to move higher as new developments unfold. While oil has surged, other areas that investors often expect to benefit during periods of uncertainty, such as gold, consumer staples, healthcare, and aerospace and defense, have not seen the same type of strength. In fact, several of these traditionally defensive sectors have declined during the same period. This unusual pattern highlights just how quickly market dynamics can shift during geopolitical events. To better understand the implications of a sudden oil spike, it is useful to look at historical data. When oil experiences a rapid five-day rate of change similar to what markets are seeing now, the S&P 500 has tended to show modest short-term weakness but stronger performance over longer periods. Historically, the market has averaged roughly a 1% decline one month after a sharp oil spike. Three months later, returns typically turn positive at about 1%, followed by gains of around 2.5% after six months. Over longer time frames, nine to twelve months, the market has historically delivered even stronger performance. Looking at median returns, which reduce the influence of outlier years like 2008, tells a similar story. Despite sudden jumps in energy prices, equities have generally performed well over time. This pattern suggests that while energy shocks can cause temporary disruptions, they have rarely led to sustained market weakness. Investors may simply need patience while markets digest the initial volatility. How Markets Historically Respond to Geopolitical Events Geopolitical conflicts often create immediate uncertainty in financial markets. The initial reaction is typically increased volatility and a short-term decline in stock prices as investors respond to rapidly evolving news. However, history shows that these events rarely lead to prolonged market downturns. Data examining major geopolitical events since 1941 reveals a consistent pattern. While markets may fall initially when conflict breaks out, the S&P 500 has historically recovered and produced positive returns over the following months. On average, the index has risen about 2.6% three months after major geopolitical events. Six months later, average gains increase to approximately 5.8%, and twelve months after the event, the average return rises to about 7.8%. Recent Middle East conflicts follow a similar pattern. In many cases, the market declined when the news first broke but was higher three, six, and twelve months later. Of course, every event occurs within a unique economic backdrop. Some geopolitical conflicts unfold during periods of economic weakness, while others occur when economic fundamentals remain strong. That broader environment can influence how quickly markets recover. For investors, the key takeaway is that while geopolitical events often create short-term volatility, long-term market performance tends to be driven by more fundamental factors such as corporate earnings and economic growth. Rising oil prices, for example, could influence consumer spending and corporate profitability, which are important drivers of stock prices over time. Key Technical Levels to Watch During periods of intense news flow and rapidly changing headlines, market technicals can provide valuable insight into investor sentiment and potential turning points. Price action often reveals how investors are collectively responding to uncertainty. When markets face heightened volatility, watching key support and resistance levels becomes especially important. For the S&P 500, one important level recently stood at 6,710. This area represented a key resistance point where buying pressure had previously helped support the market. If the index breaks below this level and closes beneath it, attention shifts to the next major support level. That next level sits near 6,582, which corresponds with the 200-day moving average. The 200-day moving average is one of the most widely followed technical indicators in the market. It represents the average price investors have paid for the index over the past 200 trading days. Because of this, it often acts as a psychological threshold where buyers and sellers reassess positions. If the market approaches that level, investors who previously purchased near that average price may choose to lock in profits or defend their positions by buying additional shares. This dynamic frequently creates support around the 200-day moving average. Importantly, the moving average is currently trending upward, which is typically viewed as a positive signal for the broader market trend. From a broader perspective, the current situation appears to be a market-driven event rather than a fundamental economic shift. When volatility is driven primarily by headlines rather than economic deterioration, technical indicators can help investors monitor how sentiment is evolving in real time. <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/our-team/greg-powell/">Greg Powell, CIMA®</a> President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell <a href="mailto:[email protected]">here</a> <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/our-team/bobby-norman-cfp/">Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®</a> Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman <a href="mailto:[email protected]">here</a> <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/team-new/trey-booth-cfa-aif/">Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®</a> Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth <a href="mailto:[email protected]">here</a> <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/our-team/ty-miller/">Ty Miller</a><a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/our-team/bobby-norman-cfp/">, AIF®</a> Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller <a href="mailto:[email protected]">here</a>   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com/whats-changed/">What’s Changed?</a> first appeared on <a href="https://fiplanpartners.com">Fi Plan Partners</a>.

4 MIN

Investors' Insights and Market Updates

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