Here we find ourselves approaching the fifth spring of the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022.As the rest of the world’s geopolitical landscape changes dramatically, Russia’s “friend group” shrinks, and Ukraine’s friends grow weary and distracted, where is the war moving and where could we expect Russia to adjust for another year of conflict?<br /><br />Returning to Midrats again to discuss this and related issues is <a href="https://www.cna.org/our-experts/gorenburg-dmitry" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg</a>, a Senior Research Scientist in the Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs division of CNA, where he has worked since 2000.<br /><br />Dr. Gorenburg is an associate at the <a href="https://daviscenter.fas.harvard.edu/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Harvard University Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies</a> and previously served as Executive Director of the <a href="https://aseees.org/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">American Association of the Advancement of Slavic Studies</a> (AAASS). His research interests include security issues in the former Soviet Union, Russian military reform, Russian foreign policy, and ethnic politics and identity. Dr. Gorenburg is author of <a href="https://amzn.to/3LlwyBN" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Nationalism for the Masses: Minority Ethnic Mobilization in the Russian Federation</a> (Cambridge University Press, 2003), and has been published in journals such as <a href="https://wpj.princeton.edu/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">World Politics</a> and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/toc/rpsa20/current" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Post-Soviet Affairs</a>. He currently serves as editor of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/journals/mppc20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Problems of Post-Communism</a> and was also editor of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/journals/mrup20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Russian Politics and Law</a> from 2009 to 2016. Dr. Gorenburg received a B.A. in international relations from Princeton University and a Ph.D. in political science from Harvard University.<br /><br />Summary<br /><br />In this episode, we explore the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, marking its fifth spring, and analyze Russia’s current military strategy, technological dependencies, economic adjustments, and geopolitical efforts. Our expert guest, Dr. Dmitry Gorenberg, a senior research scientist at CNA, provides insights into Russia’s military tactics, technological challenges, and international alliances, painting a comprehensive picture of a pivotal moment in the conflict.<br /><br />Key Topics:<ul><li>The significance of the fifth spring of the Russia-Ukraine war and its implications</li><li>The role and impact of Starlink and Russian anti-satellite capabilities</li><li>Russian military tactics: steady grinding, troop mobilization, and drone warfare</li><li>The Russian psyche regarding prolonged conflict and public sentiment</li><li>The influence of repression and government control on information dissemination</li><li>Economic resilience: sanctions, oil prices, and support from BRICS nations</li><li>Russia’s strategic partnerships: Venezuela, Iran, China, and others</li><li>The role of sabotaging NATO and Western countries to weaken collective defense</li><li>Information warfare: Russian propaganda, disinformation, and influence operations</li><li>Technological dependencies: reliance on US-based satellite systems and Chinese components</li><li>Russian military leadership: promotions, strategic updates, and future outlooks</li><li>The geopolitics of energy, with focus on shadow fleets and the Straits of Hormuz</li></ul>Timestamps:<ul><li>00:00 - Introduction and overview of Russia’s fifth spring in the Ukraine conflict</li><li>02:09 - The impact of cutting off Starlink and communication disruptions on the front lines</li><li>04:20 - Russian troop mobilization strategies and tactics</li><li>05:39 - External foreign fighters: North Koreans, North Africans, and recruitment trends</li><li>08:33 - Russian public perception and cultural narrative about the war’s longevity</li><li>09:29 - The influence of repression, propaganda, and societal attitudes in Russia</li><li>12:46 - Government control of communications, internet censorship, and surveillance</li><li>16:15 - Russia’s dependence on US satellite systems and Chinese technology</li><li>17:36 - Russia’s technological gap: Satellites, GPS, and domestically developed systems</li><li>19:10 - Economic impacts: sanctions, oil prices, and Russia’s financial resilience 21:25 - Russia’s efforts with BRICS and global network of allies to bypass sanctions</li><li>23:24 - The role of Venezuela, Iran, and other countries in Russia’s geopolitical web</li><li>27:06 - Russia’s sabotage operations against NATO and Western nations</li><li>30:13 - Political influence campaigns, disinformation, and influence operations</li><li>32:09 - Reflection on Cold War-era propaganda and current information strategies</li><li>33:38 - The use of media, social platforms, and online influence in shaping narratives</li><li>37:40 - Historical perspective on propaganda, public manipulation, and media control</li><li>39:51 - Modern military technology, including missile attacks and Ukraine’s defense</li><li>42:11 - The evolving missile landscape, targeting energy infrastructure and battlefield logistics</li><li>44:46 - Russia’s advanced satellite capabilities: intercepting and maneuvering satellites</li><li>46:47 - External support for Russia: North Korean, Iranian weapons, and China’s role</li><li>48:00 - Chinese technology and components aiding Russia’s military industry</li><li>50:17 - Russia’s long-term concerns about China’s rising dominance</li><li>52:24 - Russia’s diplomatic and military support networks in Latin America and beyond</li><li>54:00 - Shadow tanker ships, oil sanctions, and economic strategies related to energy</li><li>55:47 - The geopolitical implications of oil sales, shadow fleets, and global markets</li><li>57:06 - Russia’s support to Iran: targeting capabilities and strategic assistance</li><li>58:21 - Ukraine’s recent military developments and regional connections</li><li>60:59 - Ukraine’s defense industrial capacity and regional alliances</li><li>62:24 - Russia’s outreach and support to Middle Eastern countries; strategic intentions</li><li>64:39 - Future outlook: military promotions, strategic planning, and the war’s trajectory</li></ul>Resources &amp; Links:<ul><li><a href="https://www.cna.org/research/russia" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">CNA Russia Studies</a></li><li><a href="https://www.spacex.com/markets/starlink" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Starlink by SpaceX</a></li><li><a href="https://www.rt.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">RT (Russia Today)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">RAND Report on Russian Satellites</a></li><li><a href="https://www.energy.gov/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">US Sanctions and Oil Market Data</a></li><li><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/shadow-fleet-russia-venezuela-crackdown-9.7128428" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Russia’s Shadow Fleet</a></li></ul>