America‘s Commercial Real Estate Show

Holiday retail sales are forecast to grow 4.3% to 4.9% while retail space stays scarce. ICSC CEO Tom McGee joins Michael Bull, CCIM to explain why. Retail sales have more than doubled since the global financial crisis, yet very little new retail space has been built. The result is historically high occupancy across regional malls, open-air centers, and standalone retail, with retailers competing for well-positioned space. Tom breaks down ICSC's fourth quarter forecast of $1.7 trillion in retail sales, why the top 10% of earners account for 50% of all consumer spending, and why the other 90% are watching prices closely. The conversation covers the formats with the most momentum (grocery-anchored and suburban open-air centers), what happens to dark drugstores, and findings from ICSC's Shopping in the Age of AI report with McKinsey on convenience-oriented and discovery-oriented stores. Tom explains why ICSC events are built for dealmaking, including 4,000 participants at ICSC+PROPTECH in Las Vegas, and Michael shares how an AI-drafted markup of a listing agreement nearly derailed an $11 million listing. In this episode:00:00 Retail Outlook: Gas Prices, Tariffs, and Inflation01:10 Retail Sales Growth and a Strong Job Market03:30 Holiday Forecast: $1.7 Trillion, 4.3% to 4.9% Growth05:18 Top 10% of Earners Drive 50% of Consumer Spending06:20 Stock Market, Home Equity, and the Wealth Effect06:59 Gas Prices and Discretionary Spending07:50 Shopping in the Age of AI: Convenience vs. Discovery Stores10:53 ICSC Southeast: Dealmaking in Atlanta12:46 ICSC Las Vegas and 4,000 at ICSC+PROPTECH14:32 Who's Expanding: Discount, Grocery-Anchored, Open-Air16:20 Dark Drugstores: Why Vacant Retail Gets Snapped Up18:10 Retail Tips: Merchandising, Pricing, Customer Service20:09 Chick-fil-A Outparcels and Retail as Social Space21:49 AI-Lawyered Leases and Listing Agreements24:12 Final Takeaway: A Resilient Consumer and Warning Signs Connect with Tom McGee:https://www.linkedin.com/in/tommcgee2/ICSC Website: https://www.icsc.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:Michael Bull, CCIMBull Realty, Inchttps://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #ICSC #ShoppingCenters #HolidaySales #RetailSales #ConsumerSpending #RetailAI #MichaelBull #CREShow

Where are foreign investors putting capital in US commercial real estate? Michael Bull, CCIM asks Gunnar Branson, CEO of AFIRE, what the mid-year Pulse shows. Gunnar Branson leads AFIRE, the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate, whose members are institutional investors from 24 countries. Twice a year AFIRE surveys them on their US allocations, risks, and opportunities. This year's headline is a turn toward infrastructure and energy. Data centers are pulling institutional capital, and for the first time a majority of respondents say energy availability and cost shape where they invest. On property types, industrial still tops the wish list and multifamily follows, but office has climbed to number 3. Gunnar explains why New York has almost no Class A office space available, why retail's comeback is the model for office, and why mixed-use, 24/7 neighborhoods are winning tenants. Michael shares why he calls office the buy of the decade, with a 200,000 square foot tower coming to market at about $64 a foot. The conversation also covers the US economy (90% of respondents see politics as a negative force on investment, while 94% say this is a time for long-term investing), Japanese capital and the weak yen, why nearly half of the world's institutional quality real estate sits in the US, the housing affordability gap, build-to-rent and manufactured housing, household financial stress, tariffs and immigrant labor, and why location still matters. In this episode:00:00 Introduction: how foreign investors view the US01:25 The AFIRE Pulse: institutional investors from 24 countries02:22 From real estate to infrastructure: data centers lead04:56 Generational capital and the long-term US view05:28 Europe and the Middle East: a pause in new investment06:11 Data centers: top opportunity and top risk07:17 Office climbs to #3 behind industrial and multifamily09:15 Office as the buy of the decade: lessons from retail11:37 Buying office at $64 a foot: the low-basis play12:27 US economy: strong growth, 90% see politics as a negative14:52 Japanese capital, the yen, and long-term thinking15:42 Why the US wins: nearly half of institutional real estate18:09 The housing shortage and affordability19:07 Build-to-rent, single family rentals, and manufactured housing24:02 Household stress: 19% now at the breaking point25:19 The biggest headline: energy infrastructure27:44 Beyond the capital stack: new players in real estate29:07 Tariffs, reshoring, and immigrant labor costs31:48 Visas, universities, and where capital follows33:35 Location, location: why investors favor vibrant cities Connect with Gunnar Branson:https://www.linkedin.com/in/gunnarbranson/AFIRE Website: https://www.afire.org/ Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:Michael Bull, CCIMBull Realty, Inchttps://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #ForeignInvestment #RealEstateInvesting #AFIRE #DataCenters#Infrastructure #OfficeMarket #Multifamily #IndustrialRealEstate #AffordableHousing #CREShow

Commercial real estate has moved from downturn to recovery, but the gains are uneven. Rich Hill of Principal Asset Management joins Michael Bull, CCIM to map where the opportunities are. Rich Hill is Senior Managing Director and Global Head of Real Estate Research and Strategy at Principal Asset Management, which manages roughly $110 billion of commercial real estate globally. He explains why US total returns have risen for about 8 consecutive quarters, why real estate cycles average around 16 years, and why net operating income growth will drive returns in a cycle with little room left for cap rate compression. Beneath muted headline returns, the top quartile of properties is performing well while the bottom quartile has failed to launch. Rich walks through the US housing mismatch and a selective view on Class A apartments, build-to-rent under the ROAD to Housing Act, senior housing demand from the growing 70+ population, and why power centers and unanchored retail look attractive. On office, 90% of vacancy sits in 30% of buildings and 40% of buildings have no vacancy at all. With the 10-year Treasury above 5%, Rich and Michael discuss why properties trading below replacement cost are holding back new supply, and why commercial real estate worked for decades with Treasury rates at 4% to 5%. In this episode:00:00 Where Are the Commercial Real Estate Opportunities?01:32 CRE Recovery: 8 Quarters of Rising Returns and 16-Year Cycles03:48 Muted Headline Returns and the Dispersion Underneath06:28 Selective Conviction and the US Housing Mismatch08:35 Class A Apartments, Class B Value-Add, and AI Job Risk09:55 Build-to-Rent and the ROAD to Housing Act10:59 Senior Housing: The Growing 70+ Population12:01 Retail Real Estate: Power Centers and Unanchored Centers14:13 AI, White-Collar Jobs, and the Office Market16:40 Below Replacement Cost: Why New Supply Has Stalled18:37 Investing With a 5% 10-Year Treasury19:46 Back to Normal: CRE at 4% to 5% Treasury Rates Connect with Rich Hill:https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-hill-2156387/Principal Asset Management Website: https://www.principalam.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:Michael Bull, CCIMBull Realty, Inchttps://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #CREOutlook #RealEstateInvesting #Multifamily #BuildToRent #RetailRealEstate #OfficeMarket #SeniorHousing #InterestRates #PrincipalAssetManagement #CREShow

Retail sales are running 5.3% ahead of last year, beating NRF's 4.4% forecast. Michael Bull, CCIM asks NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews why shoppers keep spending. Consumer sentiment sits near the lowest readings on record, yet shoppers keep buying. Mark Mathews, Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research at the National Retail Federation, explains why most of the 2026 growth is real rather than inflation: goods inflation is running about 0.8%, and a dollar spent on a durable good 30 years ago costs about 79 cents today. Mark breaks down the K-shaped consumer (the top 20% of households drive about 60% of spending), how $60 billion in extra tax refunds offset higher gas prices through August, and why retailers who win on price are winning now. He also covers diesel and tariff costs, blended e-commerce and physical stores, AI shopping assistants, TikTok and influencer-driven sales, and his outlook for holiday spending. For owners and investors in retail real estate and net lease retail, this is a clear read on the consumer behind the rent checks. In this episode:00:00 Retail Real Estate: Are Retailers Really Doing Well?01:41 Retail Sales Up 5.3% vs. NRF's 4.4% Forecast03:44 Who's Winning: Retailers That Own Low Prices04:55 Dollar Stores and the K-Shaped Consumer06:03 Gas Prices, the Top 20% and $60B in Tax Refunds08:30 Consumer Confidence Near Record Lows10:07 Diesel, Tariffs and Who Absorbs the Cost11:30 E-Commerce, Blended Commerce and Physical Stores13:07 Why Shoppers Still Want to Touch the Product13:51 AI in Retail: Big Investment, Unclear Payoff15:51 Showing Up in AI Search Results18:11 Retail Sales Outlook and Holiday Spending19:28 Advice for Retailers and Retail Property Owners21:14 TikTok, Influencers and the Customer as Emperor22:24 Wrap-Up Connect with Mark Mathews:https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-mathews-cbe-4522913/National Retail Federation Website: https://nrf.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:Michael Bull, CCIMBull Realty, Inchttps://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #RetailRealEstate #RetailSales #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #NRF #ConsumerSpending #NetLease #RetailForecast #Economy #AIinRetail #BullRealty #CREShow

Data center demand is booming, but the buildings are going obsolete faster than they can fill up. Michael Bull, CCIM digs into the numbers with Ermengarde Jabir, PhD, Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics. The US data center market is now 31 to 32 gigawatts of power, and power, not square footage, is the right way to size it. Ermengarde explains why a 50,000 square foot data center built 10 or 15 years ago might now need only 25,000 square feet to house the newer racks and servers, leaving half the building empty. She walks through the sector's cap rates, a competitive 4% to mid-5% range, the shrinking risk premium as the 10-year Treasury pushes past 4.6%, and who is actually building these now, from traditional developers to the big tech owner-operators alongside long-time REITs Digital Realty and Equinix. The conversation covers the data center types from co-location to hyperscale, why the shell is simple like an industrial warehouse but the interior build-out and cooling are where the cost lives, office-to-data-center conversions and the load-bearing floor test that makes or breaks them, the moratoriums and lost-tax-base math driving local approvals, and what the AI build-out really means for jobs. Ermengarde's bottom line on employment: not more or fewer jobs, but different jobs. In this episode: 00:00 Intro: The Data Center Debate01:23 How Big Is the Market? 31 to 32 Gigawatts of Power02:18 Why Power Beats Square Footage, and the Obsolescence Problem03:53 Data Center Types, From Co-Location to Hyperscale04:47 Who Is Building Now: Developers, REITs, and Big Tech07:54 Hyperscale Build-Out and the Shift to Liquid Cooling10:28 Data Center Cap Rates: 4% to Mid-5% and the Risk Premium12:11 Office-to-Data-Center Conversions and the Load-Bearing Test14:08 Moratoriums, Zoning, and the Local Tax-Base Math16:03 The Future: Why Exponential Growth Cannot Last19:11 Data Centers and Jobs: Construction vs Permanent22:43 AI and Employment: The 4.1% Headline and What It Hides25:35 Office-Using Employment: Peak or Another Cycle?27:03 Final Takeaway: Different Jobs, Not Fewer Connect with Ermengarde Jabir, PhD:https://www.linkedin.com/in/ermengarde-jabir-phd-3114829a/Moody's Analytics Website: https://www.moodysanalytics.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:Michael Bull, CCIMBull Realty, Inchttps://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #DataCenters #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #DataCenterRealEstate #AI #CapRates #Hyperscale #AdaptiveReuse #RealEstateInvesting #CREForecast #MoodysAnalytics #MichaelBull