America‘s Commercial Real Estate Show

Michael Bull, CCIM and PwC's Andrew Alperstein break down Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2027: the top 10 markets, top sectors, rates, distress and AI. The 48th edition of the PwC and Urban Land Institute report draws on more than 500 interviews and close to 1,000 surveys of owners, lenders, developers and home builders across the US and Canada. This year's theme is "You Have to Work for It." With the 10-year Treasury near 5%, investors expect returns to come from operations and asset selection, since cap rate compression is off the table. Andrew walks through the numbers. Only 50% of respondents rate the profitability outlook good or excellent, down from 55% last year and 65% two years ago, yet buy signals are among the strongest in recent years as properties trade below replacement cost and new supply sits near historic lows. He also covers 2019 and 2021 vintage debt maturities, how AI is changing office demand and analyst hiring, and why policy now drives where capital flows. Senior housing leads the sector outlook, followed by retail and industrial. Dallas ranks as the No. 1 market for the third straight year, with Nashville, Miami, Raleigh-Durham and a resurgent San Francisco rounding out the top five. In this episode:00:00 Emerging Trends in Real Estate: 48 Years of PwC and ULI Research01:07 How the Report Is Built: 500+ Interviews and 1,000 Surveys03:20 Top Economic Issue: The 10-Year Treasury Near 5%06:12 The Theme: "You Have to Work for It"06:59 Inflation, Oil Prices and Real Estate as a Hedge08:34 New Supply at Historic Lows Across Property Types09:48 Below Replacement Cost: Sentiment at 50%, Buy Signals Up11:15 Distress and Debt Maturities: 2019 and 2021 Vintage Loans13:19 AI in CRE: Productivity, Talent and Data Center Demand16:54 AI and Office Demand: CBD Growth vs. Suburban Back Office19:48 Top Sectors: Senior Housing Leads the Growth Outlook21:35 Retail, Office, Multifamily and Industrial Rankings24:19 The Expanding Real Estate Universe: Marinas, Golf, Infrastructure25:05 Transaction Volume: Selective and Submarket Specific27:26 Top 10 Markets: Dallas Is No. 1 for the Third Year29:28 San Francisco Jumps to No. 5, Plus Manhattan and Jersey City31:36 Policy's Growing Impact on Where Capital Flows33:55 Demographics: Aging Boomers and 18-Year-Olds Peaking35:28 Final Takeaway Connect with Andrew Alperstein:https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-alperstein-ab0a822/PwC Website: https://www.pwc.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:Michael Bull, CCIMBull Realty, Inchttps://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #EmergingTrends #RealEstateInvesting #ULI #PwC #SeniorHousing #RealEstateMarkets #InterestRates #CREShow

Commercial real estate values fell 20% without a recession, a first in US history. Michael Bull, CCIM and AEW's Mike Acton explain what comes next. Mike Acton, CFA, Head of Research & Strategy, North America at AEW Capital Management, has studied real estate cycles at AEW since 1990. He explains why the US is at the very beginning of the next up cycle in property values, why returns over the next year will come almost entirely from income, and why scarce new construction could give this recovery a longer runway: lower IRRs, but higher equity multiples over the hold. The conversation covers commercial real estate transaction volume returning to a 2018 and 2019 pace, how oil prices and a 10-year Treasury near 5% shape the interest rate outlook, reshoring and foreign capital flowing into US property, and why rising stock values are pushing more institutional dollars into real estate allocations. Mike also walks through the sectors AEW likes most. Senior housing leads the list as the first baby boomers turn 80, and retail is recovering after more than 10 years with almost no new construction. He also explains why AEW is waiting on data centers, and what the late 1990s teach investors about holding real estate through a technology boom. In this episode: 00:00 Where Commercial Real Estate Stands in the Cycle 01:16 Values Fell 20% Without a Recession: A First in US History03:01 Returns Ahead Come From Income, Not Appreciation 04:00 The Buying Window: Lower IRR, Higher Multiple 05:40 Transaction Volume Back to a 2019 Pace 06:45 Oil Prices, Inflation, and a 5% 10-Year Treasury 08:12 Reshoring, Foreign Capital, and US Property 10:20 Institutional Allocations: Same Percentage, More Dollars 11:12 Core vs. Opportunistic: Capital Returns to Core 12:04 Senior Housing: Baby Boomers Turning 80 15:08 Retail's Recovery After a Decade of No New Supply 16:09 Office, CapEx, and Old-Fashioned Real Estate Skill 17:39 Final Takeaway: What the Dot-Com Era Teaches Investors 19:25 Data Centers and the Obsolescence Risk Connect with Mike Acton: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-acton-38b26765/ AEW Capital Management Website: https://www.aew.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #RealEstateInvesting #CREForecast #SeniorHousing #RetailRealEstate #DataCenters #InterestRates #InstitutionalInvesting #AEW #MichaelBull #CREShow

Holiday retail sales are forecast to grow 4.3% to 4.9% while retail space stays scarce. ICSC CEO Tom McGee joins Michael Bull, CCIM to explain why. Retail sales have more than doubled since the global financial crisis, yet very little new retail space has been built. The result is historically high occupancy across regional malls, open-air centers, and standalone retail, with retailers competing for well-positioned space. Tom breaks down ICSC's fourth quarter forecast of $1.7 trillion in retail sales, why the top 10% of earners account for 50% of all consumer spending, and why the other 90% are watching prices closely. The conversation covers the formats with the most momentum (grocery-anchored and suburban open-air centers), what happens to dark drugstores, and findings from ICSC's Shopping in the Age of AI report with McKinsey on convenience-oriented and discovery-oriented stores. Tom explains why ICSC events are built for dealmaking, including 4,000 participants at ICSC+PROPTECH in Las Vegas, and Michael shares how an AI-drafted markup of a listing agreement nearly derailed an $11 million listing. In this episode:00:00 Retail Outlook: Gas Prices, Tariffs, and Inflation01:10 Retail Sales Growth and a Strong Job Market03:30 Holiday Forecast: $1.7 Trillion, 4.3% to 4.9% Growth05:18 Top 10% of Earners Drive 50% of Consumer Spending06:20 Stock Market, Home Equity, and the Wealth Effect06:59 Gas Prices and Discretionary Spending07:50 Shopping in the Age of AI: Convenience vs. Discovery Stores10:53 ICSC Southeast: Dealmaking in Atlanta12:46 ICSC Las Vegas and 4,000 at ICSC+PROPTECH14:32 Who's Expanding: Discount, Grocery-Anchored, Open-Air16:20 Dark Drugstores: Why Vacant Retail Gets Snapped Up18:10 Retail Tips: Merchandising, Pricing, Customer Service20:09 Chick-fil-A Outparcels and Retail as Social Space21:49 AI-Lawyered Leases and Listing Agreements24:12 Final Takeaway: A Resilient Consumer and Warning Signs Connect with Tom McGee:https://www.linkedin.com/in/tommcgee2/ICSC Website: https://www.icsc.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:Michael Bull, CCIMBull Realty, Inchttps://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #ICSC #ShoppingCenters #HolidaySales #RetailSales #ConsumerSpending #RetailAI #MichaelBull #CREShow

Where are foreign investors putting capital in US commercial real estate? Michael Bull, CCIM asks Gunnar Branson, CEO of AFIRE, what the mid-year Pulse shows. Gunnar Branson leads AFIRE, the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate, whose members are institutional investors from 24 countries. Twice a year AFIRE surveys them on their US allocations, risks, and opportunities. This year's headline is a turn toward infrastructure and energy. Data centers are pulling institutional capital, and for the first time a majority of respondents say energy availability and cost shape where they invest. On property types, industrial still tops the wish list and multifamily follows, but office has climbed to number 3. Gunnar explains why New York has almost no Class A office space available, why retail's comeback is the model for office, and why mixed-use, 24/7 neighborhoods are winning tenants. Michael shares why he calls office the buy of the decade, with a 200,000 square foot tower coming to market at about $64 a foot. The conversation also covers the US economy (90% of respondents see politics as a negative force on investment, while 94% say this is a time for long-term investing), Japanese capital and the weak yen, why nearly half of the world's institutional quality real estate sits in the US, the housing affordability gap, build-to-rent and manufactured housing, household financial stress, tariffs and immigrant labor, and why location still matters. In this episode:00:00 Introduction: how foreign investors view the US01:25 The AFIRE Pulse: institutional investors from 24 countries02:22 From real estate to infrastructure: data centers lead04:56 Generational capital and the long-term US view05:28 Europe and the Middle East: a pause in new investment06:11 Data centers: top opportunity and top risk07:17 Office climbs to #3 behind industrial and multifamily09:15 Office as the buy of the decade: lessons from retail11:37 Buying office at $64 a foot: the low-basis play12:27 US economy: strong growth, 90% see politics as a negative14:52 Japanese capital, the yen, and long-term thinking15:42 Why the US wins: nearly half of institutional real estate18:09 The housing shortage and affordability19:07 Build-to-rent, single family rentals, and manufactured housing24:02 Household stress: 19% now at the breaking point25:19 The biggest headline: energy infrastructure27:44 Beyond the capital stack: new players in real estate29:07 Tariffs, reshoring, and immigrant labor costs31:48 Visas, universities, and where capital follows33:35 Location, location: why investors favor vibrant cities Connect with Gunnar Branson:https://www.linkedin.com/in/gunnarbranson/AFIRE Website: https://www.afire.org/ Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:Michael Bull, CCIMBull Realty, Inchttps://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #ForeignInvestment #RealEstateInvesting #AFIRE #DataCenters#Infrastructure #OfficeMarket #Multifamily #IndustrialRealEstate #AffordableHousing #CREShow

Commercial real estate has moved from downturn to recovery, but the gains are uneven. Rich Hill of Principal Asset Management joins Michael Bull, CCIM to map where the opportunities are. Rich Hill is Senior Managing Director and Global Head of Real Estate Research and Strategy at Principal Asset Management, which manages roughly $110 billion of commercial real estate globally. He explains why US total returns have risen for about 8 consecutive quarters, why real estate cycles average around 16 years, and why net operating income growth will drive returns in a cycle with little room left for cap rate compression. Beneath muted headline returns, the top quartile of properties is performing well while the bottom quartile has failed to launch. Rich walks through the US housing mismatch and a selective view on Class A apartments, build-to-rent under the ROAD to Housing Act, senior housing demand from the growing 70+ population, and why power centers and unanchored retail look attractive. On office, 90% of vacancy sits in 30% of buildings and 40% of buildings have no vacancy at all. With the 10-year Treasury above 5%, Rich and Michael discuss why properties trading below replacement cost are holding back new supply, and why commercial real estate worked for decades with Treasury rates at 4% to 5%. In this episode:00:00 Where Are the Commercial Real Estate Opportunities?01:32 CRE Recovery: 8 Quarters of Rising Returns and 16-Year Cycles03:48 Muted Headline Returns and the Dispersion Underneath06:28 Selective Conviction and the US Housing Mismatch08:35 Class A Apartments, Class B Value-Add, and AI Job Risk09:55 Build-to-Rent and the ROAD to Housing Act10:59 Senior Housing: The Growing 70+ Population12:01 Retail Real Estate: Power Centers and Unanchored Centers14:13 AI, White-Collar Jobs, and the Office Market16:40 Below Replacement Cost: Why New Supply Has Stalled18:37 Investing With a 5% 10-Year Treasury19:46 Back to Normal: CRE at 4% to 5% Treasury Rates Connect with Rich Hill:https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-hill-2156387/Principal Asset Management Website: https://www.principalam.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:Michael Bull, CCIMBull Realty, Inchttps://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #CREOutlook #RealEstateInvesting #Multifamily #BuildToRent #RetailRealEstate #OfficeMarket #SeniorHousing #InterestRates #PrincipalAssetManagement #CREShow