Cattle Chatter

Is the cattle market setting up for a period of sideways trade? On this week’s Cattle Chatter, Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek takes a closer look at the fundamentals and explains why he’s not particularly friendly toward the market right now. He discusses what happens when slaughter numbers increase and boxed beef prices struggle to sustain current levels, along with what he’s seeing in Iowa and the latest trends in national average carcass weights. Pasture conditions remain a concern for producers, and viewers are also asking about the growing role of beef-on-dairy cattle. Could that changing supply mix eventually alter what has traditionally been considered the price structure for fed cattle? Brad tackles those questions and more in this week’s Cattle Chatter.

The cattle market is facing a daily conundrum as traders weigh the potential for another rally against growing concerns about the market's underlying fundamentals. On this week's Cattle Chatter, Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek looks at why the market continues to want to push higher, while he remains hesitant to turn fully bullish. Kooima examines the market's lack of currentness compared with previous years, along with the movement of northern cattle from Nebraska into Texas. That shift in cattle flows is something he says deserves close attention as the market moves forward. Weather is also becoming a factor, with excessive rain creating muddy conditions that can add stress to cattle and affect performance. Meanwhile, the futures spread is sending an interesting signal. December cattle are trading above October, creating an incentive to keep cattle on feed rather than market them sooner. With cattle movement, weather and the futures structure all pulling the market in different directions, Kooima explains why there are reasons for the market to rally—but also plenty keeping him from getting fully bullish.

The cattle market has been all over the board this week, but as the week winds down, the trade has taken on a bit of a blah feel—much like the rainy Midwest weather. On this week’s Cattle Chatter, Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek breaks down the biggest questions facing the market: Where’s the cash? Some bids are on the table in the North, but the South remains quiet. Beef export talk: Discussion surrounding a possible beef export ban quickly met pushback, adding another headline for the market to digest. Technical trade: Joe takes an in-depth look at this week’s technical moves and what the charts are telling cattle traders. The market is waiting on cash, watching the headlines and looking for direction. Will cattle find enough support to push back into the green—or does the blah feeling continue?

Cattle can’t hold the green, and the board continues to struggle to attract bids as the market receives mixed signals. Is money flow adding to the pressure? Are livestock fundamentals shifting? And how much weight should traders put on the latest headlines? The market already knew another facility was expected to open on the Mexican border—this time in New Mexico. So what else is driving the weakness? As hard as it is, producers may want to avoid getting pulled into every social media post or speculation ahead of Friday’s announcements from Washington, D.C. Meanwhile, trade negotiations with Canada and the EU continue. Could developments there have an impact on U.S. cattle exports and demand? 🐄 Lots of questions. Lots of moving pieces. And cattle are still looking for a bid.

These are some of the best-looking cattle charts we’ve seen in a while. After some solid movement on Day 3 of the Goldman Sachs roll and last week’s Saturday cattle buying, there’s plenty to watch in the market. On this week’s Cattle Chatter, Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek breaks down the charts and shares what he’s telling customers right now. He also looks at the jump in crude oil and what higher fuel costs could mean for transportation costs to and from the sale barn. Plus, Brad weighs in on how he’s interpreting the latest headlines—and what they could mean for cattle markets. And we’re taking your questions, including heifer retention and current wholesale beef prices.