Chip Stock Investor Podcast

Ouster stock: what has to go right over the next 10 years to justify ~$41 a share? In this video: Ouster’s (OUST) Q2 2026 results, why plunging LiDAR sensor prices are actually good news, and how to value an unprofitable growth company with our new normalized profit and peer benchmarking calculator. Ouster grew revenue 56% year over year to $55M in Q2 2026, more than tripled sensor shipments to over 17,000, and pushed GAAP gross margin to 49%, all while holding operating expenses nearly flat. But it still runs a −37% operating margin and −28% free cash flow margin. Our normalized profit scenario shows today’s price already assumes about 30% annual revenue growth for a decade and a 20% FCF margin. That makes OUST a hold in our small bets basket, with a closer look if shares fall toward $30. Join Semi Insider and get access to the new "normalized profit" calculator! $120/year until November 30, 2026. Join: https://chipstockinvestor.com/features-and-pricing Free demo: https://demo.chipstockinvestor.com/ Chapters 00:00 Intro: Ouster (OUST) and our small bets basket 00:40 Where Ouster fits in the end-market cycle: auto, industrial, and physical AI 02:55 Q2 2026 results: color LiDAR and 56% revenue growth 04:20 Falling selling prices and the Jevons paradox 05:15 Q3 guidance, gross margin, and operating expense control 06:55 The financials: operating and free cash flow margins 08:45 Reverse DCF and “pretend profitability” 10:05 Peer group benchmarking: Hesai, Aeva, Teledyne 12:10 Normalized profit calculator walkthrough 13:55 Adding a margin of safety 15:10 Other checks: balance sheet, cash, and share dilution 15:55 Our take: hold, and the price levels we’re watching — LINKS & RESOURCES — Join Semi Insider — $120/year Semi Insider is Chip Stock Investor's paid research service: all research as it happens, the CSI 100 + quarterly outlook, dashboard tools (Compare Companies, Reverse DCF, supply-chain mapping), weekly live Q&A, portfolio moves before execution, and the private Discord. Join: https://chipstockinvestor.com/features-and-pricing Free demo: https://demo.chipstockinvestor.com/ All our links & socials: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor Disclaimer: For education only — not financial advice. Do your own research. Ownership: CSI owns shares of Ouster as of publication. Positions can change without notice. #Ouster #LiDAR #Semiconductors

CoreWeave’s 9.75% senior notes saw yields surge past 15% as bond prices slid, dragging equity down with them. In this episode, we break down why rising borrowing costs squeeze fixed-price GPU contracts, what CoreWeave’s balance sheet reveals about its next debt raise, and how we’re adjusting our portfolio. Timestamps0:00 Why Neocloud Investors Are Hurting Right Now1:20 The 2022 Playbook: Rising Yields vs. Growth Stocks2:20 CoreWeave’s 9.75% Senior Notes Explained3:15 Balance Sheet Check: $5.5B Cash vs. Debt4:40 The Bond See-Saw: Prices Down, Yields Up7:35 Reason #1: A Flood of AI and Government Debt8:55 Reason #2: Is the Neocloud Bubble Ending?9:50 Bondholders First, Shareholders Last11:00 The 2015 Shale Bust Parallel & Our Portfolio Moves Links & ResourcesJoin Semi Insider: https://chipstockinvestor.com/features-and-pricingFree Demo: https://demo.chipstockinvestor.com/All Links: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor Disclaimer: Educational only, not financial advice. CSI holds positions in CoreWeave and Nebius as of publication.

Wix took on $1.1B in 0% convertible notes priced near $210/share, then bought back $1.6B of stock, all with shares trading around $75. Is management seeing value the market is missing, or is WIX a value trap? Wix (WIX) has been one of the hardest-hit names in this year’s SaaSpocalypse. The market has been pricing software companies as if the AI labs will absorb everything. The numbers tell a more complicated story. Revenue re-accelerated 15% year over year to $563 million in Q2 2026, driven by price increases and by Base44, the vibe coding app builder Wix acquired in June 2025. Base44 crossed $150 million in annualized recurring revenue in May. In this video, Nick and Kasey break down Wix Harmony, Base44, and Base1, Wix’s proprietary LLM built to lower AI inference costs and lift gross margins. We walk through the balance sheet, the $1.6 billion net share repurchase, and an AI investment cycle that cut quarterly free cash flow from $156 million to $53 million. Then we run a reverse DCF and our normalized profit calculator, compare WIX to Shopify, Figma, and Adobe on valuation, and explain how we’re handling our own position. Our approach is a small-bets basket with a hard rule for reassessing. If you want the reasoning behind more names like this one, Semiconductor Insider covers the process in more depth. Get access to all our research, weekly live Q&A events, and a growing set of tools to build your process. Create your free demo account now at https://www.chipstockinvestor.com 📰 Why Chip Stock Investor Is Becoming a Software Business: https://chipstockinvestor.com/why-chip-stock-investor-is-becoming-a-software-business/ Linktree for all our socials: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor If you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe! 0:00 - Wix After the SaaSpocalypse: Dead or Mispriced? 2:00 - “Reports of My Death”: Why Wix Still Has Real Assets 3:00 - Wix Harmony vs. Base44: Two Paths to AI Site Building 4:00 - Base44 vs. the AI Labs: $150M ARR in Under a Year 6:00 - Base1: Why Wix Is Building Its Own LLM 7:45 - $1.1B Convertible Notes & a $1.6B Buyback 10:00 - Revenue Re-Accelerates 15%, Free Cash Flow Drops 14:00 - Valuation: Reverse DCF vs. Normalized Profitability 19:00 - WIX vs. SHOP, FIG & ADBE: Value or Value Trap? 20:45 - Our Decision: Sell, or Hold in the Small Bets Basket? ******************************************************* Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction! Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. CSI owns shares of Wix. #Investing #StockMarket #WIX #Base44 #Shopify

TSMC just beat the high end of its own guidance, and on the same day CoreWeave’s debt traded at a 15% yield. Here’s how to square the two, and why we’ve been flagging neocloud balance sheet risk for over a year. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) delivered another standout quarter in Q3 2026: $46.7 billion in revenue, a 66% gross margin, and a 58.7% operating margin. Nearly 80% of wafer revenue came from 7nm and below. High-performance computing (HPC) grew 22% sequentially to about 68% of revenue, driven by agentic AI and data center demand. CapEx guidance now sits at $60–64 billion as the foundry leader accelerates its second Arizona fab, evaluates Texas, and scales advanced packaging. Like ASML, TSMC remains capacity constrained, and the two-year growth runway looks wide open. The neocloud story is very different. We break down the balance sheet metrics we’ve tracked for CoreWeave and Nebius: CapEx-to-revenue, debt-to-equity, and debt-to-assets. We explain why a crowded, undifferentiated AI infrastructure market may not generate enough revenue to justify the debt. This isn’t the end of the AI bull market. It may be a mid-cycle shakeout that rewards quality, self-funding hyperscalers, and healthy balance sheets. We also share how we’re positioned. 🎥 Neocloud video referenced in this episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkCxTqDVrYc This video is sponsored by Fiscal.ai, the financial data platform we use every day at Chip Stock Investor. Get 15% off any paid plan at https://fiscal.ai/csi If you want the reasoning behind more names like this one, Semiconductor Insider covers the process in more depth. Get access to all our research, weekly live Q&A events, and a growing set of tools to build your process. Create your free demo account now at https://www.chipstockinvestor.com 📰 Why Chip Stock Investor Is Becoming a Software Business: https://chipstockinvestor.com/why-chip-stock-investor-is-becoming-a-software-business/ Linktree for all our socials: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor If you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe! 0:00 - TSMC Q3 2026: A Record Quarter and a Neocloud Warning 0:45 - TSMC’s 40% Run and Its Role at the Base of the Chip Stack 1:40 - Q3 Breakdown: $46.7B Revenue, 66% Gross Margin, 7nm and Below 2:20 - HPC Hits 68% of Revenue and $60–64B CapEx Guidance 3:00 - Agentic AI Demand, Arizona Fab 2, and Advanced Packaging 4:25 - Long-Term Bets: High-NA EUV Photomasks and Sony Deal 5:20 - Is TSMC Still a Buy? The Two-Year Growth Runway 5:45 - CoreWeave Bonds Hit 15% Yield: What the Market Woke Up To 6:30 - Neocloud Red Flags: CapEx/Revenue, Debt/Equity, Debt/Assets 9:10 - Our Positions and the Coming Mid-Bull Market Shakeout ******************************************************* Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction! Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. CSI owns shares of TSMC. #Investing #StockMarket #TSMC #CoreWeave #Neocloud

ASML just reported Q3 2026 earnings, and management delivered a major update: the company cannot fully meet customer demand for the next two years. With net sales hitting €11.66 billion—up 55% year over year—these results reshape the trajectory for the entire wafer fab equipment (WFE) industry. In this episode, we break down the quarterly print and what extended capacity constraints mean for semi equipment through 2028: End-Market Shift: How memory chipmakers and installed base management offset softer logic spending to drive the top-line surge. Profitability & Cash: Net income near €5 billion (including ~€500M from ASML’s Mistral AI stake) and the rebound in free cash flow after several lumpy quarters. Q4 2026 Guidance: The setup for ~52% revenue growth and record gross margins near 57%. Revisiting Our 2028 Call: Why our earlier thesis on a potential 2028 equipment slowdown looks completely different now that ASML is weighing expansion beyond its planned 30% capacity bump. The Fab Five & Sector Strategy: What this supply crunch signals for Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, and Tokyo Electron following the post-June sell-off—and why macro equipment allocation matters more than single-stock picking at this stage of the AI cycle. Timestamps: 0:00 ASML Kicks Off Chip Earnings Season 1:10 The EUV Moat: Why Lithography Is a Choke Point 3:00 Sales by End Market: Memory Picks Up the Slack 4:10 Q3 2026 Revenue: +55% and the Lumpy Sales Cycle 6:00 Net Income, the Mistral AI Gain & Free Cash Flow 7:30 Revisiting Our 2028 Slowdown Call 8:10 Q4 Guide: +52% Growth and Record ~57% Margins 9:00 Capacity Constrained Through 2028: Why It’s Bullish 11:10 Fab Five Sell-Off: Is Equipment on Sale? 12:00 Allocation Over Stock Picking: Our Takeaway Sponsor: Try Fiscal.ai, the financial data platform we use every day. Get 15% off any paid plan at https://fiscal.ai/csi Join Semiconductor Insider: Get early access to our complete research, weekly live Q&As, and proprietary equipment tracking tools at https://chipstockinvestor.com Platform Vision: Why Chip Stock Investor Is Becoming a Software Business: https://chipstockinvestor.com/why-chip-stock-investor-is-becoming-a-software-business/ Connect with Us: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor Affiliate links are sprinkled throughout our show notes. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction! Content in this episode is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. Chip Stock Investor owns shares of ASML.