The Tariff Inflation Feedback Loop

New York Fed economists are arguing that recent inflation spikes on everyday goods were driven entirely by tariffs, not supply chains or demand. Lucas and Luna unpack how this changes the Federal Reserve's calculus as we head into October 2026. With the trade-weighted dollar index hovering near 121.4 and the Fed Funds effective rate holding at 3.75 percent, the question is whether policymakers can ignore a cost-push shock that directly targets consumer wallets. We look at the mechanics of how import taxes feed into core services, why emerging market currencies like the Brazilian real are rallying while others stall, and what the IMF’s warning about AI means for long-term productivity. If you’re watching your grocery bill and wondering where the money is going, this episode explains the hidden tax layer sitting between global trade policy and your checkout total. #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Tariffs #Inflation #FederalReserve #NewYorkFed #ForeignExchange #USDJPY #EmergingMarkets #TradePolicy #ConsumerPrices #InterestRates #IMF #Productivity #GlobalTrade #LucasAndLuna #FXMarkets Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo