Why Oil Prices Are Surging Despite Recovering Supply

Middle East crude flows have rebounded, but precautionary buying and portfolio hedging are among the factors keeping prices elevated, says Daan Struyven, co-head of Global Commodities Research and head of Oil Research, on the Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast. Key takeaways: Precautionary physical buying: Physical buyers are bidding up available crude amid growing downside risks to supply. Portfolio hedging: Bond and equity prices are unusually sensitive to oil prices, prompting institutional investors to buy crude to hedge their portfolios. Supply challenges for refined products: Persian Gulf exports of refined products like diesel and gasoline are still only at around 40% of their 2025 average levels amid damage to refineries and underinvestment in manufacturing. Metal prices may also rise: Struyven expects copper prices to increase another 10% by the end of 2027. He says gold may climb amid central bank demand for the yellow metal. Date of recording: October 22, 2026 The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html © 2026 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices