Hypernormal Investing: Growing Capital & Protecting Wealth Amid Radical Uncertainty

Subscribe to Hypernormal Times on Substack. Anthropic files for what could be the largest IPO in history. Meta launches its biggest-ever equity raise. And then the earnings land: Alphabet has its worst day ever, Amazon’s record AWS growth is swallowed by $77bn of quarterly CapEx, and Intel drops 23%. Meanwhile the Fed holds rates six days before an election and tells us politics played no part, the US tells its Gulf allies to prepare for a short, intense campaign against Iran after the midterms, and Binance suspends withdrawals after the largest bank heist in history. This week on Hypernormal Investing: why free cash flow, not revenue growth, is now the scoreboard for the AI trade, and why next Tuesday’s election has become the hinge for a war, the Fed’s December decision and the global bond market. In this episode: The AI capital crunch – Anthropic’s $100bn Nasdaq listing at a $1.5–2tn valuation (first-half revenue of $16.3bn, up from $1.2bn, and $475bn of compute commitments), Meta’s $95bn raise after its first negative free cash flow since 2012, Broadcom’s $63bn chip financing, and Elon Musk on debt markets closing to anyone without revenue outside AI data centres. Ed Yardeni’s “toxic financial trifecta” and the $5tn gap in Gartner’s numbers. Earnings: who got rewarded and who got punished – Alphabet down 13% on a second straight quarter of negative free cash flow and $265bn of CapEx; Amazon down 7% after hours despite AWS growing 39%; Intel down 23% on memory prices. Microsoft and Oracle rose on positive cash flow and a trimmed spending forecast. Over 400 S&P 500 stocks rose while the hyperscalers were taken apart. Three takeaways for active investors – Free cash flow is the scoreboard. This is dispersion, not collapse, and the cracks are appearing at the leveraged edges first. Listen to the credit market before the equity market. The Fed: “interest rates get in the cracks” – A 10–2 hold with Beth Hammack and Lisa Cook dissenting for a hike, Kevin Warsh’s rejection of the idea that the AI boom doesn’t care about rates, and the 10-year Treasury falling below 5% in its biggest monthly drop since December 2023. Treasuries are reclaiming their haven status from gold and Bitcoin. Is it time to load up on duration? – A 6% deficit, $40tn of debt, no fiscal restraint whoever wins, and a December hike still priced. Why short and intermediate maturities give most of the hedge with less supply risk. Iran and the oil risk window – Trump’s “finish it off or make a deal”, a third carrier group en route, Brent at $116 against JP Morgan’s $94 fair value, and why structurally higher energy prices are being priced into 2027 delivery, with consequences for inflation expectations. Central banks: slow, grudging hikes into an energy shock – The Bank of Japan declares victory over its 2% target and triples the pace of ETF sales (one to watch for the yen carry trade), the UK budget nobody noticed, gilts at 5.3%, and a Bank of England hike expected next Thursday. Election risk returns – Lula beats Bolsonaro and Brazil sells off as investors were caught on the wrong side; Israel’s deadlocked vote; and what the US midterms mean for the war, the Fed and the fiscal outlook. The largest bank heist in history – Binance’s $6.3bn breach, reportedly starting with a compromised DevOps laptop and attributed to North Korea’s TraderTraitor unit; Bitcoin at a six-week low; gold below $4,000; and why custody now matters as much as what you hold. Key takeaways: Free cash flow, not revenue growth, backlog or benchmarks, is what the market is rewarding. The credit market is already pricing financing risk at the edges of the AI build-out. The equity market is catching up. Treasuries are a hedge again, but not a free lunch. The fiscal ceiling hasn’t gone away. The oil risk window is next week. Energy exposure still hedges the scenario that hurts bonds and equities together. The BoJ has changed sides. A central bank worried about overshooting is a structural shift for global bond markets. Positioning and custody are risks in themselves. From Binance to Brazil, crowded trades got punished. The week ahead: Apple reports Monday; US midterms Tuesday; Bank of England decision Thursday; US jobs report Friday. US clocks go back Sunday, so New York is five hours behind the UK again. Hypernormal Investing, AI trade, Anthropic IPO, Alphabet earnings, Amazon earnings, free cash flow, Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, Treasury yields, bond market, Iran war, oil price, Brent crude, Bank of Japan, yen carry trade, UK budget, gilts, Bank of England, US midterms, Brazil election, Binance hack, North Korea crypto, Bitcoin, gold, active investing, market uncertainty This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

Subscribe here on Substack. US 10-year Treasury yields are at around 5%, 30-year gilts have been heading towards 6%, and bond markets are repricing across the world. What should investors make of it? I am joined by Marcus Ashworth, financial commentator, former Bloomberg Opinion writer and fixed income specialist, who argues that the sell-off is logical, not frightening, and that bonds may be the most oversold they have ever been. Marcus explains how AI hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet have gone from under 1% to about 8% of the credit market in two years, and why their borrowing is pushing up costs for other companies and the US Treasury. He also sets out why he doesn't buy the debasement trade, what Scott Bessent and Kevin Warsh are learning from the markets, and why refining capacity matters more than the crude oil price. On the UK, Marcus describes how the Bank of England's quantitative tightening made gilts the easiest bond market in the world to short, and why its new arrangement with the Debt Management Office is a major step forward. He looks ahead to the Budget on October 28th and explains why sterling is a "non-player character". Marcus Ashworth, bond market, US Treasury yields, gilts, Bank of England, quantitative tightening, hyperscalers, AI debt, credit spreads, fixed income, Scott Bessent, Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve, interest rates, UK Budget, sterling, US dollar, gold, debasement trade, oil prices This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

Subscribe to Hypernormal Times on Substack David Dredge, CIO of Convex Strategies, returns sixteen months after his first appearance to grade the hopes he once had for Scott Bessent as the "adult in the room" at Treasury. This episode covers Bessent's yen intervention and Treasury bond buybacks, Kevin Warsh's rocky first months as Fed Chair, an eerie echo of 1990s Japan, the reawakened gold-and-Bitcoin debasement trade, the real purpose of stablecoins, and the spectacular blowup of a 24-year-old trader who turned $200 million into $45 billion — and back again. Dredge closes with where he thinks the market is currently mispricing risk, and why his answer to uncertainty is always better brakes, not less speed. In this episode: Grading Scott Bessent's "3-3-3" plan and the failure of DOGE The "Hunger Games of debt issuance" — who's left to buy government bonds What Bessent's yen intervention and bond buybacks are really signaling to "Rational Accounting Man" Kevin Warsh's Fed: forward guidance is dead, but has "talk tough, do nothing" replaced it The Fed's new task forces — Bill White on inflation targeting, Mervyn King on communications Japan's subsidised inflation numbers and the 30-year JGB vs. a 1% policy rate Why gold and Bitcoin correlation spiking to near 1 is the market's real tell Stablecoins, the Genius Act, and the quiet dismantling of the Eurodollar market Lessons from the $45 billion trader who forgot he wasn't hedged Where cheap convexity is hiding now — and where it already got used up Related episode: "Uncertainty, Volatility & Risk with David Dredge of Convex Strategies" (May 2025) David Dredge, Convex Strategies, Scott Bessent, Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve forward guidance, tail risk hedging, volatility investing, yen intervention, Bank of Japan, financial repression, gold Bitcoin correlation, debasement trade, stablecoins Treasury market, convexity, Rational Accounting Man. This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

Subscribe to Hypernormal Times for more episodes and other market content. Ten months after Europe's Crisis of Competence, one of the most listened-to episodes of Hypernormal Investing, I caught up again with Brawlster, author of The Brawl Street Journal, to ask what has changed. The answer is not much, and most of it for the worse. We discuss: EU regulation hitting reality. The LNG methane rules carry fines of up to 20% of global turnover, and Brussels is already telling member states not to enforce them. The packaging regulation is pushing small businesses out of cross-border trade. German energy policy. Economy Minister Katherina Reiche offers a small glimmer of hope, but there's no route back to nuclear. German politics. Chancellor Merz is polling around 15% and pressing charges against people online who call him a liar, in a coalition where sensible reform dies at the hands of the SPD. Europe's energy dependency. Europe swapped Russian gas for US LNG, and a short US export halt could empty European storage by mid-January. Nord Stream. A US-owned "freedom gas" pipeline and a reverse-Nixon strategy towards Russia. Sovereign stress. French 10-year yields are at their highest since 2008, Germany's AAA rating is at risk, and Germany can no longer afford to backstop France. Defence spending. Rheinmetall and Volkswagen's pivot to defence, and why spending on tanks is fiscal expansion, not productive capital. German industry. Volkswagen is cutting 100,000 jobs, and Chinese EVs are filling the affordable mid-market. Italy's gold. Italy has reclassified its gold as belonging to "the people", with implications for TARGET2 balances and EU solidarity. Political shifts. The AfD's rise, the Saxony-Anhalt election and France's 2027 elections. Ukraine. The escalation risk of Ukraine's drone campaign, and what a pre-midterm US peace deal would mean for Europe's leaders. Europe economy, EU regulation, German politics, Friedrich Merz, AfD, European gas crisis, US LNG, Nord Stream, French bond yields, German debt, euro crisis, TARGET2, Italy gold, de-dollarisation, Volkswagen, Rheinmetall, defence spending, Ukraine war, macro investing, Hypernormal Investing This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

John Polomy of Actionable Intelligence Alert returns for a wide-ranging conversation on US fiscal decline, the fracturing global order, and how to protect and grow capital through it. We cover the parallels between today's West and the late Soviet Union, how asymmetric warfare exposed the limits of US power projection in Iran, and why the world is splitting into three competing spheres of influence. From there, John lays out his own investment playbook: internationalising capital, holding gold, silver, and Bitcoin as insurance against debasement, building a modern "permanent portfolio" of liquid hard assets, and why he believes uranium offers the best supply-demand setup in commodities today. Topics Covered: Parallels between the modern US and the late-stage Soviet Union The "establishment" as a self-preserving organism Asymmetric warfare, drones, and the limits of US military power post-Iran The trifurcation of the world into US, China/Asia, and Eurasian blocs Scott Bessent, the bond market, and the fight to defend the dollar vs. the debt Why John believes the US won't survive as an intact political entity within a generation Internationalizing capital: banking, residency, and jurisdictional diversification Gold, silver, platinum, and Bitcoin as protection against currency debasement Building a modern permanent portfolio: timber, land, water rights, and liquid hard-asset plays The uranium bull case and how to get exposure (Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, Yellowcake, Cameco) Investing like a multi-generational wealthy family: preserve first, compound second Guest: John Polomy — Actionable Intelligence Alert (Substack), YouTube Keywords/Tags: dollar debasement, US debt crisis, bond market, de-dollarization, gold and silver, Bitcoin as an asset class, uranium investing, permanent portfolio, capital internationalization, geopolitics and investing, de-globalization, macro investing podcast This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.