The Energy Trade Isn’t Over, It’s Changing: What to Buy Now

The energy trade has already delivered big gains—but David Szybunka says the cycle is far from over. The opportunity is simply changing. David Szybunka, Senior Portfolio Manager & Managing Director of the Energy Team at Canoe Financial, joins Amber Kanwar to explain why he believes energy has entered the “optimism” stage of a much longer cycle. After large-cap oil producers led the rally, Szybunka is becoming more selective, finding better value in natural gas, mid-cap producers and oilfield services. He argues investors are too focused on today’s oil price and not enough on the structural forces reshaping the sector—from geopolitical risk and energy security to surging power demand from AI. Szybunka also sees the ingredients for another wave of M&A. Canadian energy companies are generating significantly more cash, debt has fallen and valuations are increasingly diverging—creating opportunities for companies with stronger balance sheets to go shopping. He explains why owning long-life resources could become increasingly valuable as capital returns to the sector. In the Mailbag, Szybunka weighs in on the outlook for Canadian natural gas and potential M&A opportunities, including Birchcliff Energy (BIR.TO), Advantage Energy (AAV.TO) and Kelt Exploration (KEL.TO). He also tackles West White Rose and what it could mean for Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) and Suncor Energy (SU.TO), the Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE.TO)–Headwater Exploration (HWX.TO) merger and its Tributary Exploration spinout, Abaxx Technologies (ABXX.NE) following its dramatic selloff, and the outlook for oilfield services. In Pro Picks, we first revisit Szybunka’s picks from his last appearance—and several were big winners. CES Energy Solutions (CEU.TO) gained 65%, Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE.TO) rose 84% and Headwater Exploration (HWX.TO) climbed 60%, while PrairieSky Royalty (PSK.TO) gained 30%. Tourmaline Oil (TOU.TO), however, returned just 4%—and Szybunka is bringing it back as a pick. He explains why he thinks North American natural gas resources are mispriced, why Tourmaline could be vulnerable to a bid, and why he also likes Athabasca Oil (ATH.TO) and SLB (SLB) as the energy cycle evolves. Timestamps 00:00 Trailer 02:30 Intro 03:40 David Szybunka returns 04:26 Geopolitics, AI, and the energy demand outlook 06:34 Is energy entering an optimism wave? 09:54 Capital returning to Canadian energy 11:39 Canada’s changing energy investment climate 13:05 Large caps vs. overlooked intermediates 15:38 Why energy M&A could accelerate 17:50 Why David prefers large-cap natural gas 18:00 Oil supply shocks vs. long-term demand 20:37 How to invest during an oil shock 21:37 Natural gas, power demand, and global scarcity 24:29 The case for thinking in energy cycles 26:56 LNG, natural gas, and where David sees opportunity 30:04 West White Rose and the large-cap outlook 32:59 Growth, shareholder returns, and the cycle 34:40 Who could become an energy-sector acquirer? 35:49 Tamarack–Headwater merger and the Tributary spinout 38:14 ABAX Technologies: David’s investment view 43:51 Oilfield services and the global spending cycle 47:31 Tourmaline: why David sees natural gas value 54:40 Athabasca, Tamarack, and long-life resources 58:51 SLB and the case for global energy spending 63:04 Closing Bell: life beyond the markets Sponsors Thank you to our partners at ATB Financial. ATB Cormark Capital Markets is a leading North American investment firm providing holistic corporate and capital markets advice and full-service financial solutions. Visit https://ATB.com/inthemoney for more information. For over 25 years, Raymond James has been helping Canadians achieve their financial goals. Visit https://raymondjames.ca today to discover how you can live a life well planned. Thank you to our partners at Hamilton ETFs. For more information visit https://hamiltonetfs.com All the charts you’ll see today are sponsored by Wealthsimple Trade. The self-directed trading platform built for active traders in Canada. Learn more at  https://app.wealthsimple.com/74rd/83ftma8x Support for this podcast is brought to you by EQB – the company behind EQ Bank, Canada’s Challenger Bank. For more information visit https://www.eqbank.ca/ The Closing Bell is sponsored by The Haliburton Post House: private executive retreats in Ontario's Haliburton Highlands. 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Hosted by business journalist Amber Kanwar, each episode features interviews with top portfolio managers who suggest ways to achieve good returns. Covering everything from ETFs and Canadian stocks to global investing trends, dividend strategies, and risk management, this show is made for DIY investors, stock market enthusiasts, and anyone looking to sharpen their financial strategy. Contact: [email protected] #IntheMoney #Investing #StockMarket #CanadianInvesting #FinancialNews