#77 - Commercial Property: What's Rising, What's Not, and Why | Scott O'Neill & David Hamilton

Higher interest rates are supposed to push commercial property values down. In most sectors, they haven't. This market update maps where the commercial property market actually stands: which asset classes and states are strengthening, which are softening, and where the opportunity sits for Australian investors at home and in New Zealand. Scott O'Neill and co-host David Hamilton work through it sector by sector. Industrial is settling into a steadier rhythm, retail has staged a genuine comeback, and office has split into two very different markets. The national numbers tell one story. The individual markets tell several. Scott shares what he is buying, what he is avoiding, and the due diligence issues derailing deals. David brings the developer's view of why so little is being built, and what that means for anyone who already owns. In this episode: How to tell a prime office opportunity from a secondary building that only looks like value Where Scott is most active across the states, and why What New Zealand offers an Australian investor in its own right What happens to existing owners when developers pull back, and why leasing up is taking longer Why a lower yield isn't always the safer buy, and where Scott draws the line Book a Consultation: https://www.rethinkinvesting.com.au/lets-talk Explore commercial property with Rethink Investing:Australia: https://www.rethinkinvesting.com.au/ Follow Scott O'Neill: https://www.instagram.com/scott_oneill_/ Follow Rethink Investing: https://www.instagram.com/rethinkinvesting/ (00:00) Trailer (01:08) Welcome and the Commercial Property Market Update (04:39) Industrial Property: Yields, Growth and Rents (08:42) Retail Property: The Comeback Story (10:43) Neighbourhood Centres and Why New Supply Has Stalled (12:48) Office Property: Prime vs Secondary, and Who It Suits (17:31) Medical and Childcare Property: Yields and Leases (22:10) State by State: New South Wales (24:59) Victoria: Lower Prices and Better Yields (27:37) Queensland: Brisbane, Industrial and the Olympics (31:51) Western Australia: Perth After a Strong Run (33:40) Adelaide, Hobart and Darwin: The Smaller Markets (38:24) New Zealand: The Opportunity for Australian Investors (39:59) Inflation, Rents and Real Capital Growth (41:06) New Zealand: Financing and Market Drivers (44:26) Developer Collapses and Private Credit (48:05) Will Developer Failures Reach Commercial Owners? (51:02) What Scott Is Buying and Avoiding (53:08) Lower Yields and Where the Real Risk Sits (56:49) Why Deals Are Falling Over at Due Diligence (58:49) Listener Questions (1:10:04) Final Thoughts and the Rate Decisions Ahead