Macro Bytes

With less than one week to go until the second round of the Brazilian presidential election, Lizzy Galbraith is joined by Tettey Addy to discuss the candidacies of Flavio Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, including what the first round tells us about the likely outcome, whether the next president can meet investor expectations of ambitious fiscal reform, and what the outcome means for Brazilian foreign policy.

President Trump may not be on the ballot, but the 2026 US midterms are shaping up to be a referendum on his presidency. Paul Diggle and Lizzy Galbraith unpack strong Democratic momentum, what Aberdeen's election model implies for control of Congress, the key Senate battlegrounds to watch, and what different election outcomes could mean for fiscal policy, AI regulation, and financial markets.

The global monetary policy cycle has turned back to hiking, following two years of (nearly) synchronised rate cuts. In this episode of Macro Bytes, Chief Economist Paul Diggle is joined by Jon Butcher, Felix Feather and Sree Kochugovindan from Aberdeen's Global Macro Research team to discuss the shift back towards monetary tightening. A week or two on from major decisions from the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, the team assesses whether policymak...

AI may be digital, but its success depends on a very physical reality: data centre construction. As investment in AI infrastructure surges, local opposition is growing too, with concerns over power use, water consumption, visual intrusion, and noise all prominent. In this episode, Paul and Lizzy are joined by Nancy Hardie from Aberdeen’s sustainability team, and Tim O'Reilly from datacentre developer Tritax. They explore the economics, politics and geopolitics of the AI infrastructure buildou...

Long-term bond yields have been hitting multi-decade highs. Lizzy Galbraith and Paul Diggle discuss the drivers of this increase in government borrowing costs, what policymakers can and can’t do about it, and at what point higher yields weigh on the economy and broader financial markets. The AI capital investment boom and hyperscaler issuance are playing an important role in driving yields up, but that may turn mean that the impact is different to what conventional wisdom would suggest.