Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Michael Green, chief investment officer at Tier1 Alpha Asset Management, says that the domination of index funds and passive investing has changed market kinetics, systematically pushing money to the largest names, contributing to the current phenomenon where a few mega-cap stocks have carried the market to record highs while most smaller index constituents have struggled. Over time, the continued shift toward passive investing has created a situation that can lead to extremes, in both directions. As a result, he says investors need to be prepared to navigate heightened market volatility, even as they ride market trends to record highs. With gold having been on a rocky path this year — having peaked early and struggled since — Dana Samuelson, founder and president of American Gold Exchange, returns to Money Life to discuss how market and economic forces have shaken precious metals. Samuelson -- who said in an April interview that he expected gold to recover from the initial shock of the Iran War to return to hit a new record of $6,000 per ounce within 18 months -- says the rebound is still plausible but the timeline has changed. He discusses how inflation, interest rates and demand for the more-industrial white metals — silver, platinum and palladium — are impacting markets now, and what he believes needs to happen for precious metals to rebound. Plus, Chuck answers a question from a listener about whether election integrity in the mid-terms could become a concern for the market, and perhaps have more influence on the economy moving forward than which party wins control of the House and Senate.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, chief executive and chief strategist at QI Research, says the stock market "is shooting off warning signals" indicative of a market top, and she fears that news around inflated artificial-intelligence earnings and "echoes of Enron" in expansive use of off-balance sheet financing to pay for expansion could be what leads to a recession or something worse. DiMartino Booth says that valuations are more stretched than they were during the Enron era, and she says that "earnings quality" is what investors should be questioning. "I think right now is the best time to have a very close relationship with your financial advisor," DiMartino Booth says, "and have them guiding you not just to indexes, but to specific areas that we know will benefit regardless of what's to come with the AI trade. Mark Hamrick, chief economic analyst at The Hamrick Brief, goes Off the News on Tuesday's pending home sales numbers, which he says made it clear that "This is a pretty grim time for the housing market," but that the trouble goes beyond buyers and sellers because housing is a key economic sector that is already in the deep freeze before winter, a seasonally bad time, even arrives. He also discusses how the housing numbers are doubling up on the lock-in effect for many long-time and/or older homeowners who have a low-rate mortgage — so that trading houses means getting a new, more-expensive loan — and who now would be looking potentially at a diminished sale price on their property; if they're even less willing to move now, it slows the sector further. Plus, Chuck has for over a decade offered the trick-or-treaters in his neighborhood a chance to pick cash or candy, and to trade candy with him in hopes of getting a bigger treat. He's got a wild new twist this year and he discusses what he is doing, how you can adapt it to your own circumstances and neighborhood — even one that gets few trick-or-treaters — and how even something as simple as a cash-or-candy choice can teach basic financial decision-making.

David Lundgren, chief market strategist at Little Harbor Advisors, says he thinks the market could rally in the short-term but that it is showing signs of material weakness and is headed for bubble trouble. Lundgren, portfolio manager for the LHA Market State Shares ETFs, says that the market is building a bubble now, but it's not sending him to the sidelines because investors can make big profits during the expansion period. However, he says that unless economic rules are somehow suspended, "We have a very large decline on our hands coming down the road." Lundgren says no one can know when the bull market will end or what the bubble's burst will look like, but he expects at least a 20 percent decline. Meanwhile, however, he emphasized that a tactical investor should be trying to maximize gains now while "not getting too far away from the exits." In the Book Interview, Peter Lazaroff discusses "The Perfect Portfolio: A Proven Guide to Smart Investing for Long-Term Success," which is not about following one "right way" to have the ideal portfolio, but rather looks at how investors can find the right mix of investments — a mix that does not have to be extensive and complicated — to provide for the rest of their lives. Plus, John Cabell, managing director of payments intelligence at J.D. Power, discusses the firm's 2026 U.S. Credit Card Satisfaction Study, which showed that the financial health among U.S. credit-card customers is getting worse. The study found that the average total credit card monthly spend across all cardholders in the study has gone up to $1,167, an increase of $109 from last year, although that may highlight an economic divide, as financially healthy customers spend up because they see increasing value from rewards and benefits while financially vulnerable consumers are feeling greater pressure from debt and rising fees.

Kristy Akullian, head of iShares Investment Strategy for the Americas at BlackRock — who says her job is to look at the economy and translate macro to markets and markets to investments — says that economic growth is strong, with numbers surprising to the upside in spite of firmer inflation, and while that has allowed the stock market to return to record highs, it should make investors nervous enough to want to diversify properly. "Higher rates that are the result of stronger growth are better for your portfolio overall," Akullian says, noting that it's why "we still have that optimism on the equity side of the portfolio" while adding that the higher yields are creating new opportunities in fixed income. Akullian says that she is "looking outside of traditional asset classes" to build in income and diversification in an era when "A.I. touches every part of your portfolio." In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses the prospects for a Tesla-SpaceX merger — and whether it would be good for shareholders — after seeing Tesla unveil a rocket-powered roadster that got prediction markets buzzing on the prospect of a deal. Marolia also discusses how he is playing artificial intelligence amid sell-offs that have heightened market volatility and unnerved investors, and discusses the investment that he views as insurance against the volatile nature of the new technology. Plus, at a time when everyone is looking for ways to make their money go farther in the battle against inflation, Vijay says investors may be able to save themselves thousands by doing a simple re-evaluation on some of thir portfolio holdings. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, has been warning for a while now that some of the largest A.I. companies have so much hidden debt that they are less profitable than they seem. He thinks that trouble is coming to roost soon, in the form of lower earnings and more trouble for the Standard & Poor's 500, which is why he put the index in the Danger Zone this week. Trainer says the risk to earnings results puts valuations into question, and could be the trigger for a market correction or worse.

Ryan Dykmans, president and chief investment officer at Dunham & Associates Investment Counsel, is expecting a market downturn that comes "in large chunks," and while he is not sure of what will trigger it, he does think it won't be excessively far off. With that in mind, he discusses the importance of preparing for it today to avoid the potential to respond emotionally. Moreover, in "a much more meaningful and material drawdown," he says investors will "wish they had some dry powder." Dykmans also discusses what he expects on interest rates, the Federal Reserve and why he thinks a defensive, diversified portfolio posture makes sense even as the market continues running now. Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., a CFRA company, says the market is already having a correction, with every index other than the major ones being down, and the big boys being held up by only a few large stocks. "This is a correction," Kahn says, "the question we have to answer is when it's going to end." If the market weakens from here, Kahn says it will be the largest stocks that don't hold up, but if things get better, smaller companies and broader participation will be what boosts returns. Kahn sees enough positives that he's not expecting a bear market, but instead is looking for indicators that the sliding has ended and the next leg higher is starting. John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, discusses third-quarter results in closed-end funds, noting that income held up at a time when prices were falling. Those price declines widened discounts in taxable bond funds to "the 99th percentile of cheapness," a level seen previously only during times of extreme market stress. Following those times previously, taxable bonds rebounded sharply, meaning the discount should be seen as a buying opportunity. Scott also discusses using hybrids like convertibles and preferreds, and which type of hybrid he prefers for current market conditions.